Philadelphia 76ers are 2019-20 title favorites according to 538’s CARMELO metric
The Philadelphia 76ers have a clear path toward contention this season.
ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight releases a yearly metric called CARMELO — Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization. In short, it serves up the projected value of a player over the course of his career based on a statistical model.
Here’s a brief description from FiveThirtyEight:
"“[CARMELO]is a system that forecasts a player‘s future performance. Wins above replacement projections are based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is derived from Box Plus/Minus, a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player.”"
No metrics are perfect, but it’s still fun to peruse different players and teams. The database includes every NBA player and offers neat tidbits — such as projected worth over five years, historic player comparisons and categories for wins above replacement.
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The Philadelphia 76ers‘ starting five fares pretty well. CARMELO sets Ben Simmons‘ five-year market value at $360.2 million — which, for those keeping score at home, far outweighs his recent and somehow-controversial $170 million extension. It puts him in the MVP candidate category.
Joel Embiid‘s projected worth over five years is $293.1 million, good for an All-Star classification. Al Horford‘s is $107.8, good for Borderline All-Star. Entering his age-33 season, I’d say that’s a promising mark.
As for the wings, Josh Richardson stands at $129.6 million while earning the label of Average Starter. Tobias Harris earned the same label, though his projected worth is $81.4 million over five years — almost $100 million less than his recent extension. He’s the only starter with a projected value below his current contract.
The Sixers have five players who project reasonably well, even if Harris’ low score warrants minor concern. It’s fair to dub Philadelphia the top starting group in the NBA, bar none, entering the 2019-20 campaign. There’s enough talent and defensive upside to make that proclamation.
CARMELO also gives the Sixers a glowing review. FiveThirtyEight’s season-long predictions give Philadelphia the highest odds to both make the Finals (55 percent) and win the Finals (29 percent). Houston, who ranks second, stands at 37 percent and 24 percent, respectively.
It’s unwise to put significant stock in one model’s prediction, but it does lend credibility to the Sixers’ upcoming title pursuit. Even after losing Jimmy Butler, Philadelphia still has the firepower to make a serious claim to the Eastern Conference throne.
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Also, it adds another layer to the growing mound of evidence that Ben Simmons is, in fact, good at basketball. He’s more than deserving of a max contract and will probably earn another one when five years is up.