Philadelphia 76ers: Tobias Harris is a $180 million X-factor

The Philadelphia 76ers will need a strong season from Tobias Harris.

Elton Brand‘s time as GM has embraced change as a necessary evil. The Philadelphia 76ers swung two blockbuster trades last season, adding Jimmy Butler 10 games into the season and adding Tobias Harris at the trade deadline. Both required valuable assets to complete.

The Sixers were looking to win on talent alone, throwing continuity to the wind. While the initial plan was to bring everyone back — which would have established continuity long-term — it’s abundantly clear the Sixers didn’t quite click in 2018-19.

Now there’s a new iteration of the roster. Butler left and Harris stayed, while Al Horford and Josh Richardson are now members of the NBA’s biggest starting five. Philadelphia will enter training camp with a concrete roster — one where all five core pieces are on multi-year contracts.

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If things go right, this will be Brand’s last major change for a long time. The Sixers should have the tools to compete in a wide-open Eastern Conference. Everyone in the starting five, omitting Richardson, is on contract for at least four more seasons.

Philadelphia is locked into a core — one with several unique attributes. Size is one of them, but versatility as well. The Sixers will switch screens like madmen, using length to bottle up smaller players on the perimeter and making drives to the rim an uncomfortable task.

On offense, the Sixers will punish mismatches. Most teams will start smaller players than Philadelphia, whose most petite starter is 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan. The Sixers will try to flip two years of J.J. Redick targeting on the NBA — constantly searching out undersized defenders and pounding the ball inside.

In broad strokes, Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons will lead the Sixers’ title hunt. Embiid is an MVP candidate. Simmons is (going to be) a perennial All-Star. Despite the clunky fit on paper, both have made it work. Simmons adjusted well in the playoffs, while Embiid is a genuine top-10 NBA talent.

When focusing in on Philadelphia’s roster construction, however, one X-factor emerges above all others — Tobias Harris.

The Sixers need Harris to earn his $180 million contract. He’s 27 and entering the meat of his NBA prime. Harris’ floor-spacing and self creation — in Jimmy Butler’s absence — are paramount to the Sixers’ success. His ability to guard on the perimeter will determine how elite the Sixers’ defense is.

Elton Brand has embraced an unprecedented brand of ‘tall ball’ in the modern NBA. Joel Embiid and Al Horford are natural centers, while Ben Simmons and Josh Richardson are a massive backcourt. That leaves Harris slotted at small forward.

Harris was a three in Los Angeles, but his best position is the four. At 6-foot-9, there are legitimate questions about Harris’ lateral quickness and ability to defend smaller, more dynamic perimeter players. He is the weak point in Philadelphia’s loaded defensive rotation.

Teams will combat Philadelphia’s size and length with small, twitchy scorers. Live dribble threats who can carve out space in the mid-range and penetrate the Sixers’ wingspan-laced wall. Harris is set up to be the main target.

If opposing offenses can successfully exploit Harris, it takes away from the unique benefits of throwing five large humans on the same basketball court. The Sixers will undoubtedly be a good defense. Embiid alone ensures that. But Harris will play a key role in it becoming great.

On the other end, Harris will operate as the Sixers’ closer — a primary source for shot creation in an offense that once leaned on Butler’s mid-range forays. Harris will need to comfortably penetrate the defense, look for his own offense and embrace a higher-usage role.

Harris has built his career on complementing other players. He was the lowest-usage player in the NBA to average 20+ points per game during his time in L.A. last season. He’s an elite spot-up shooter, a smooth pick-and-roll operator and someone who naturally fits next to other stars.

But even as Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons remain omnipresent on both ends, the Sixers will need Harris to take a step forward. His perimeter threat will keep the offense balanced, forcing defenses to not only respect the perimeter, but respect Philadelphia’s ability to generate halfcourt offense beyond Embiid.

There are several positive indicators for a potential leap in production. Before joining a new situation in Philadelphia, Harris shot 43.4 percent from 3-point range in 55 games with L.A. He shot 51 percent on corner 3s and 43 percent on non-corner 3s, good for 96th and 93rd percentiles among forwards, according to Cleaning the Glass.

His dip in efficiency after joining the Sixers could be partially attributed to lack of familiarity. It was a new system and a new role. Even for a low-usage star of Harris’ ilk, joining a stacked rotation mid-season comes with challenges. It also took time for Brett Brown to adjust the offense to Harris’ presence. It works both ways.

With a full summer in the system and a training camp to work on scheme, the Sixers and Harris will enter the 2019-20 season with a sense of commitment and continuity that wasn’t present last season. It’s not unreasonable to expect a return to elite 3-point shooting form.

Harris was also effective beyond his 3-point shooting last season. In his 27 games with Philadelphia, Harris posted a 12.3 assist percentage — 80th percentile among NBA forwards. Both numbers were slightly higher in L.A.

Although Harris isn’t an elite playmaker, there’s evidence he can shoulder increased ball-handling duties. He’s comfortable curling around screens and running handoffs along the perimeter, snaking his way inside and making unselfish reads. He can execute basic plays for the Sixers.

Being able to lean on Harris for not only scoring, but passing would greatly benefit Philadelphia’s offense. While there’s ample playmaking in the form of Embiid, Horford and Simmons, Harris’ threat as a pull-up shooter is a dynamic the Sixers otherwise lack.

There was a lot of noise after Harris signed his extension. A significant portion of the fanbase — even after the Sixers’ expensive trade maneuver — found themselves questioning a five-year, $180 million contract. It’s a lot of money for a zero-time All-Star at 27 years old.

But Harris has the tools to expand his production and step into a new light next season. The Sixers will utilize Harris like someone who just got paid — like a silky three-level scorer whose on-paper fit next to Embiid and Simmons borders on divine.

If Harris reboots his offense, survives on defense and looks more comfortable in Philadelphia’s system, it will drastically improve the Sixers’ chances to win a championship.