Orlando Magic Projected Starting Five:
- D.J. Augustin
- Evan Fournier
- Aaron Gordon
- Jonathan Isaac
- Nikola Vucevic
- Other Notable Players — Terrence Ross, Al-Farouq Aminu, Mo Bamba, Khem Birch, Markelle Fultz
The Magic are bringing back every contributor from last season’s seveth-seeded team and have also added Al-Farouq Aminu to round out the wing rotation. The Magic had a great second half of last season, going 21-9 to finish the season after a 21-31 start. The surge was on the back of their improved defense which finished eighth in the entire NBA at the end of the season, per NBA.com.
The Magic’s offense was allergic to the rim last season, as they finished in the 11th percentile in terms of shots coming around the basket, per Cleaning the Glass. As we have discussed before, the Sixers’ defense gave up a ton of shots at the rim last season, but there’s evidence that this might change. When defending the Magic, it should not be very difficult to keep them out of the paint, and the key will be to not allow open threes to their shooters.
Vucevic is a tough cover for Embiid, as he can step out a hit shots from 20 feet and farther. While this matchup gave the Sixers some issues, I have a hunch that Brett Brown will play Al Horford on Vucevic next season, with Embiid guarding Jonathan Isaac. Isaac, a career 32 percent three-point shooter, will allow Embiid to stay closer to the rim, and Horford should have no trouble guarding Vucevic if he tries to post up.
The Magic offense craters when Vucevic sits. The offense drops from top-seven level to a bottom-three one, per Basketball Reference. The shots around the rim fall even further to 27.8 percent with Vucevic off the court, which puts them in the third percentile, per Cleaning the Glass. If Horford is able to stick to Vucevic, the Magic will have a tough time generating baskets.
Defensively, the Magic did a good job last season of forcing teams away from the most efficient shots. They finished in the 83rd percentile when it comes to allowing shots at the rim, and in the 74th percentile on allowing corner threes, per Cleaning the Glass. When teams did get inside, the rim protection was just middling, as they finished in the 55th percentile in that regard.
The Sixers offense will need to use their size to overpower the Magic. Specifically Embiid, who can outmuscle anyone the Magic might throw at him. The Magic will collapse in the paint, so kickouts to three-point shooters like Harris, Richardson, and Horford should be open. Simmons will likely be guarded by Aaron Gordon for a good portion of the game. Gordon can match Simmons’ physicality, so Ben getting out in transition will be vital to his offensive success.
The Sixers are clearly the more talented team, but the Magic are well coached, particularly on defense, and they have full returning roster of players who understand their role. I will predict another series split here. If these teams meet in the playoffs, a Sixers team playing at full intensity and with ample game-planning time should handle this Magic squad in five.