The Philadelphia 76ers are 3-0, but there’s one undeniable flaw.
It appears as though the Philadelphia 76ers are indeed good. Quite good, actually. 3-0, first in the Eastern Conference, top defense in the NBA, Joel Embiid is a monster good. But, as is the case for all good teams, there is one critical flaw to address. For the Sixers, it’s shooting.
Three games into the 82-game season, the Sixers are shooting 29.8 percent on open 3-point attempts. Not the prettiest number, and a real concern for a smash-mouth group built around Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons‘ constant interior pressure.
Philadelphia’s offense is constructed to maximize the presence of Embiid and Simmons, two generational talents with unique, sometimes offsetting skill packages. The best way to make the awkward fit work beyond raw talent is spacing. The Sixers need to stretch the floor and make open spots.
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As long as Simmons and/or Embiid are sub-average shooters, the Sixers will have spacing issues. That’s fine — it’s worth it, given the aforementioned raw talent. Both are good enough to overcome flaws and lead a contending team. Even so, the Sixers hitting such a low percentage of triples — open triples, at that — is cause for concern.
The other starters are Josh Richardson, Al Horford, and Tobias Harris. All three sit above the league average historically, but volume has been limited for Richardson and Horford. Harris needs to operate as Brett Brown’s chief bomber.
Harris shot upwards of 40 percent from deep with the LA Clippers. He ranked among the NBA’s most efficient scorers, an attribute that hasn’t quite transitioned to Philadelphia. Richardson is a dreadful 2-for-13 from deep through three games. He has to be better.
In the simplest terms, the Sixers must get better from behind the 3-point line. Defense’s treatment of Philadelphia’s shooters is already suspect. A prolonged team-wide cold spell, and life for Embiid and Simmons will become infinitely harder.
The silver lining comes, of course, in regression to the mean. The Sixers should be a better shooting team than the first three games would indicate. There’s a sizable chance this cold spell is followed, at some point in the future, by a much warmer spell.
The Sixers are also 3-0, the last unbeaten team in the Eastern Conference. They have won in spite of shooting woes, due in large part to a truly elite defense. Embiid, Horford, Simmons and Richardson are already in sync. Matisse Thybulle is a firecracker and looks the part of a critical rotation piece long-term.
It’s also worth monitoring volume. While Richardson has attempted just 4.3 deep attempts per contest — a full 2.0 attempts fewer than he took last season in Miami — Horford has attempted 5.0 per contest, which would mark a career high. It’s also 2.0 attempts higher than his totals with Boston last season.
Richardson is seeing a reduced role, as most anticipated. Horford’s role has shifted drastically, from a do-it-all, in-between facilitator to a more 3-point-centric dedication. We will still see Horford working the mid-range, facing up, and dropping dimes, but in a far different context than prior seasons.
Expect the Sixers’ shooting to improve, especially on open attempts. If anything, this Philadelphia offense is designed to generate open spot-up looks on the perimeter. Embiid and Simmons are adept at finding shooters, it’s just a matter of knocking them down.
As the shooting improves, however, the concern will linger. The Sixers are short on proven, high-level shooters. The Furkan Korkmaz experiment, to no one’s surprise, has once again busted. Shake Milton is trending toward a much bigger role than he might deserve on a championship-contending team.
The Sixers are contenders. Real contenders, with a real chance to go all the way. But it might behoove Elton Brand to search the market for shooters once the deadline nears, for good measure.