The Philadelphia 76ers’ front office is well acquainted with risk.
The Philadelphia 76ers gambled on Al Horford‘s basketball I.Q., skill level, and versatility this summer — a $109 million gamble. On paper, the fit was never perfect, but there was enough reason to believe the 33-year-old could make due as Joel Embiid‘s frontcourt partner.
Unfortunately the fit has underwhelmed, and Horford looks out of place in Philadelphia. Age is a factor one can’t ignore, and it will remain a factor for the rest of his career. Not everyone can age as gracefully as LeBron James.
Beyond age, the main issue is Horford’s claustrophobic presence at the four. He muddies up the paint, and his value as a playmaker is stymied by the personnel around him. Rather than unlocking Horford as a free-flowing creator, the Sixers are forced to use him as a rigid pick-and-pop scorer. That’s not the most effective avenue to quality Horford minutes.
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It’s not that Philadelphia can’t win with Horford — he’s too talented, and the Sixers are too talented as a whole, to rule it out. But questioning Horford’s future in Philadelphia, as well as the Sixers’ ceiling with Horford, is valid. A split might do both sides good.
The Sixers should consider dealing Horford. Simply clearing out extra space in the middle — to mention a quicker trigger from deep or another capable ball-handler — would go a long way in making things easier for Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, the engines who drive Brett Brown’s car.
We have thrown around trade ideas on this website in the past — a blockbuster deal for Chris Paul, or even a mega three-team trade to reunite Robert Covington with the starting five. Those specific deals may not come to fruition, but there is enough smoke to suggest Philadelphia is open to the idea of trading Horford. At least, it has crossed the front office’s mind.
Given the recent history in Philadelphia, my advice is simple: don’t rule out a Horford deal.
The Sixers have been extremely aggressive during Elton Brand‘s brief tenure as GM — more outwardly aggressive than any team in basketball. It’s rare for teams to add two All-Star caliber pieces midseason. The Sixers swung for Jimmy Butler in November, then pulled the trigger on Tobias Harris in February, gutting half the bench for good measure.
This summer, Brand swapped Butler for Josh Richardson in a sign-and-trade, then opted to move on from J.J. Redick in favor of Horford. Change has been a near constant, and to use Brown’s terminology, there’s almost a sadistic love for alteration.
Brand is one to tinker, to look for ways to improve the roster. Rather than focus on continuity, the Sixers have aimed to put the best possible product on the floor. There wasn’t much chatter leading up to the Harris trade last season — it was a sudden, swift departure for Landry Shamet. If the Sixers come across a team willing to take Horford’s contract, another major trade seems fully in Brand’s wheelhouse.
The Sixers won’t get equal value for Horford, at least not in a vacuum. If it’s a trade for a superior talent — say, Chris Paul or CJ McCollum — it will likely cost extra on the margins. If it’s a trade for less immediate talent, the value will lie in fit, and more importantly, in a more friendly environment for Philadelphia’s core stars.
In the end, Horford isn’t the right fit. Even if his numbers improve and his role diversifies in time, the Sixers opting to build around a potential Embiid injury, rather than building around Embiid himself, was never the right move. Not in retrospect. Philadelphia can still win a championship with Horford, but exploring the trade market could prove wise.