Philadelphia 76ers: Al Horford would probably succeed elsewhere

A breakup could be mutually beneficial for Al Horford and the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Philadelphia 76ers signed Al Horford to a controversial four-year, $109 million contract last summer. It was a gamble on size, physicality, experience, and basketball I.Q. — a gamble that, so far, has left Philadelphia in the red.

From a statistical standpoint, Horford is experiencing his worst season since 2007-08 — his rookie campaign. If you stretch a little further, his percentages have reached an all-time low this season. It’s his first year below 45 percent from the field. There is a compelling argument to categorize 2019-20 as Horford’s worst season, period.

The Sixers hoped Horford’s blend of NBA experience and unselfishness would help aid the development of a young core. He was also one of the NBA’s most dynamic frontcourt defenders as recently as last season. Philadelphia hoped he would maintain that status in red, white, and blue.

At 34 years old, it’s reasonable to chalk Horford’s struggles up to age. He’s old, and the Sixers took too big a risk in paying him such a large sum over four years. Age has batted 1.000 since the beginning of sports time. A decline was inevitable for Horford.

The sharpness of his decline, of course, has caught many off-guard. Plenty of critics questioned Horford’s fit, but many assumed his talent would make up for most (if not all) quirkiness in the rotation. Horford no longer harbors the same versatility he showcased in Boston. He’s simply not the same player.

With that said, chances are Horford’s struggles are due in part to the clunkiness of the fit. He has made life more difficult for Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons — sure — but on the other hand, the Sixers have been unable to place Horford in his most comfortable spots on offense.

Horford thrived in Atlanta and Boston because of his playmaking chops and subtle versatility as a scorer. He could camp at the elbow and orchestrate the offense, he was a multi-faceted threat in the pick-and-roll, and he was a heady passer out of the post.

With Philadelphia, Horford has seen his playmaking opportunities stripped in favor of floor-spacing duties. The Sixers need to force the Embiid-Horford-Simmons mix, which meant asking Horford to camp out on the three-point line and spot-up for jumpers. Horford is a fine shooter, but he’s not an elite shooter, and it’s certainly not the hallmark of his skill set.

If the Sixers wanted to maximize what’s left of Horford, it would involve giving him more freedom as a creator — both for himself and for teammates. He would need to spend more time inside the three-point arc, whether it’s jab-stepping on the elbow, or rolling to the rim and pinpointing shooters on the perimeter.

The Sixers don’t have the offensive capacity to maximize Horford without taking away from Embiid and Simmons, two uniquely limited superstars who need certain conditions to succeed. Embiid and Simmons can find ways to succeed, but it becomes more difficult when you introduce Horford to the mix. Three is, in this case, a crowd.

Obviously the Sixers would benefit from a Horford trade — that much is abundantly clear. What isn’t discussed enough is the opposite side of the coin. Horford would benefit from a new situation where his playmaking is utilized more advantageously.

When the time comes, the Sixers may not be able to trade Horford. He has three expensive years left on his contract, something few teams are willing to take on. If he is traded, however, expect Horford to look a little more comfortable in his new home.