The Philadelphia 76ers may have a star in the making, but it’s still too early to tell.
Before the NBA’s extended hiatus, few players generated more excitement than Shake Milton. The Philadelphia 76ers‘ sophomore cracked the national conversation in a big way, emerging as the Sixers’ hottest shooter and one of the most interesting young prospects in basketball.
In 20 games prior to the suspension of play, Milton averaged 12.8 points and 3.1 assists on .526/.512/.763 shooting splits. Pretty insane numbers. He set the NBA record for consecutive made threes, he scored 39 on the road in L.A., and he looked the part of Philadelphia’s missing link — a dynamic shooter and secondary playmaker who brought life to a stagnant halfcourt offense.
All indicators suggest Milton is legit. He was dominant in the G-League last season, where he was a similarly efficient volume shooter. He looked good early in the season, before injury removed him from the rotation. One might argue Milton’s breakout has been coming for a while.
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On the other hand, we have roughly two months of consistent NBA basketball from Milton. He wasn’t a regular member of the rotation until Jan. 22, and the season suspended play on March 11. That’s a small sample size, and unfortunately, he probably won’t maintain a 51.2 percent success rate from deep forever.
At some point, Milton’s shooting numbers will come down to earth. He may permanently hover around 40 percent from three-point range — that would align with the broader context of his career — but even so, he will regress to the mean at some point.
If Milton can sustain elite efficiency from deep — which again, is very possible, maybe even likely — he will continue to bring immense value to the Sixers’ rotation. A 40 percent three-point shooter is a rare commodity. When the season resumes, he should start. He’s good, and by no means do I intend this article to read as a take-down of Milton.
With that said, Milton isn’t a particularly strong defender. He has impressive tools at 6-foot-6, but rigid athleticism and a lack of burst hinder his ability to contain certain matchups. He’s exploitable, and Milton has a ways to go before he’s considered a consistently positive defender.
On offense, Milton is limited by a below-average first step and the same stiffness that infects his defense. He doesn’t have a ton of wiggle off the bounce, which prevents him from occupying the role of a star creator. The Sixers don’t need him to occupy that role, and he’s a whip-smart passer, but when it comes to projecting Milton’s ceiling, it’s irresponsible to ignore his clear-cut limitations.
The Sixers have gotten two strong months of basketball from Milton, and when the season resumes, I would expect his strong play to continue. But when it comes to dubbing Milton a “star in the making,” or “everything Markelle Fultz was supposed to be,” one must take note of the roadblocks between Milton and sustained stardom. He may top out as an elite role player, which is more than enough for the 54th overall pick from 2018.