The Philadelphia 76ers will return to play on July 31.
Basketball is back, which means so are the Philadelphia 76ers. While there are still hurdles to clear in order to ensure a safe and efficient end to the season, the plan to resume play at Disney World — starting on July 31, with eight regular season games per team — has been thoroughly vetted by the league.
The Sixers are currently sixth in the league, but have a real shot to move up a spot or two before the playoffs begin. Either way, Philadelphia is one of the more interesting teams in basketball — a wildly talented, yet wildly inconsistent group that can seem to strike a proper balance.
It’s no stretch to call Philadelphia the best home team in basketball. The Sixers have controlled the Wells Fargo Center all season, seldom letting a game slip through the cracks. On the other hand, Philadelphia’s road record aligns more with Cleveland than it does Milwaukee.
The Sixers will now play in a neutral venue with no fans. On the surface, it hurts the Sixers. Dig a little deeper, however, and it’s worth noting the Sixers will no longer play hostile crowds, which could limit the frequency of Philadelphia’s dud shooting nights.
With the NBA finally back on track, here are five Sixers storylines to keep an eye on.
5. Joel Embiid’s weight
Joel Embiid‘s fitness level has been a recurring concern in Philadelphia since he was drafted third overall in 2014. First the foot injury, then the knee injury, and many bumps and bruises in between, Embiid has never quite remained healthy for an extended period of time. As a physical 7-foot-2 center, the worries about his stamina and ability to avoid injury are warranted.
The media silence around Embiid during the hiatus hasn’t come as a surprise. He’s a borderline recluse at this point — he stays home, works hard, and doesn’t really venture into the public sphere as much as he once did. Embiid has shied away from the spotlight recently, and a global health pandemic didn’t exactly create an environment for Embiid to venture into the world.
Embiid has greatly improved his diet since entering the league. All indications are he works hard too, and does so on a consistent basis. He’s in the gym, and he’s well aware of his injury history and stamina. He knows the Sixers need him in the postseason, which is now fast approaching.
I choose not to question Embiid’s dedication to fitness at this point. He should come back to training camp in Orlando in the best shape possible, given the circumstances. Even so, Philadelphia will need to make sure he’s in game shape. Brett Brown shouldn’t overwork him during the Sixers’ eight regular season contests.
4. Ben Simmons’ health
Ben Simmons went down with a seemingly serious back injury right before the season ended. Brett Brown recalled the gruesome nature of Simmons’ pain, and it appeared as though Simmons might not return in the regular season — maybe even the whole season.
The coronavirus pandemic quickly changed the narrative. Simmons has now had time to recover. He was given a three-week reevaluation timeline on March 11, which has long past. Philadelphia has not committed to a fully healthy status, but signs point toward Simmons suiting up when the season resumes.
The extended recovery time for Simmons was a blessing in disguise. With that said, there was some purposeful ambiguity around Simmons’ prognosis when he was declared healthy, and the Sixers haven’t given anything more concrete since. How comfortable he looks is definitely something to watch.
Back injuries are tricky. Simmons is a physical downhill player — the kind who initiates contact and pile-drives opponents en route to the basket. Not to mention his agility on defense, where he’s often asked to defend quicker guards and switch all over the floor. If Simmons’ back is still a bit wonky, it could have a significant effect on his performance.
3. The young wings
There was much fanfare to begin the season as Matisse Thybulle and Furkan Korkmaz made waves in the Sixers rotation. In recent months before the suspension of play, however, it’s fair to say both Thybulle and Korkmaz have slowed down.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing, nor is it a major concern. Thybulle is a rookie who was bound to hit some sort of wall. It’s also Korkmaz’s first NBA season playing real minutes. It happens — young players are naturally prone to ebbs and flows.
With that in mind, it is necessary to ponder the immediate future for both Thybulle and Korkmaz. While Brown has been content to ride both as his primary reserves all season, the Sixers will want to compete once the postseason hits. One might consider Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson III superior options in that setting, not to mention the recent breakout of Shake Milton.
Thybulle has sturggled to shoot the ball away from home all season. Increased pressure and a natural environment may not help him, and he’s otherwise a serious negative on offense. Even if his defense is top-tier, it’s difficult to project Thybulle’s offensive role in the postseason. Conversely, Korkmaz is the most exploitable defender in the rotation.
The Sixers may need to change up the second unit as the season comes to a close. Expect more minutes for the midseason additions, and fewer minutes for the long-term investments.
2. Shake Milton’s role
In the 10 games before the season was suspended, Shake Milton averaged 16.5 points, 3.8 assists, and 1.0 steal per game. He shot 59.2 percent from deep on healthy volume, and he was essentially the Sixers’ No. 3 option behind Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris.
Many expect Milton to start once the season resumes — myself included. He still has a very small sample size of productive basketball under his belt, but Milton has the appearance of the real deal. He’s a blistering-hot shooter, an under-appreciated playmaker, and a passable defender on the perimeter.
The Sixers need Milton to put pressure on the rim and create for others in the halfcourt. He’s no point guard, but when paired next to Simmons in a postseason setting, it could unlock both their skill sets. And even if Milton struggles to playmake, he’s arguably the best shooter on the team. He needs significant minutes.
Philadelphia will need to substitute for Milton’s shot creation in the second unit, but some combination of Alec Burks and Raul Neto could fill the void. Plus, once the postseason starts, it’s reasonable to stagger Milton and Simmons for 48 minutes a night.
If Milton doesn’t earn the fifth starting spot — which, again, he should — then his role will likely invoke the sixth man label. Brown seems intent on using Milton in an expanded capacity, which is only right when one considers his hand-in-glove fit.
1. Al Horford’s role
This ties in directly to Milton’s role. If Shake does indeed emerge as the fifth starter, then Al Horford will permanently join the second unit. It seems wise for Philadelphia to make the move permanent, as the Embiid-Horford-Simmons trio has reached an impasse.
Ideally, a three-month break will have rejuvenated Horford to some degree. Not to mention his razor-sharp wit, which always seems to shine through in the playoffs. There’s nowhere to go but up. Even so, it’s not wise for Philadelphians to get their hopes up. Horford doesn’t fit the Sixers any which way.
If Horford maintains his spot in the starting five, then it’s important to monitor how much time he spends next to Embiid. And, more specifically, how much time he spends next to Embiid and Simmons — again, there is far too much overlap when that trio shares the floor.
In the likely event Horford is moved to the bench, it’s worth wondering just how prominent his role will be this postseason. While Horford may still hold the title of fifth-best player on the roster, his skill set brings very little value to the Sixers. He doesn’t fill an area of need when on the court, and the results have often been frustrating.
If Embiid plays 38 minutes a night in the postseason — Brown’s target number — and Simmons hovers somewhere in the vicinity of 40 minutes a night similar to last season, there is very limited time and space for Horford to truly man the second unit. He will almost always need to share the floor with one star, and it’s difficult to imagine him playing only 10 minutes a night.
This is probably the main storyline to watch. Horford is a wild card in a very unexciting sense. Brown’s future could depend partly on how he manages the Horford situation, which will obviously impact the Sixers’ success in some form or fashion.