How will the Philadelphia 76ers’ rotation shake out?
When Brett Brown spoke to reporters on Tuesday afternoon, he was hesitant to make any commitments regarding the rotation. Obviously four starters are locked in place — Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Josh Richardson — but otherwise, there’s little certainty as far as who will play what role.
It’s a difficult task for Brown, who has been dealt a difficult hand from the season’s beginning. He will need to figure out the best starting five, and by extension, which group can best hold down the second unit in the postseason.
The Sixers will have three weeks of “training camp” in Orlando before the season resumes. Brown expects to use that time to evaluate his options after three months away from basketball. A lot can change in three months. Expect new players to force their way onto Brown’s radar.
Brown will have the opportunity to pit players against one another in his head. We can call them positional battles. A man-eats-man competition, only the players may not know who specifically they’re up against. It’s similar to James Ennis and Jonathon Simmons late last season, only this time around, Brown has multiple competitions on his hand.
Here are three to keep an eye on.
3. Furkan Korkmaz vs. Matisse Thybulle
In Tuesday’s press conference, Brown expressed a hesitancy to rely on younger players in the postseason. While Brown has given Matisse Thybulle and Furkan Korkmaz long leashes all season, both could see a dramatic decrease in minutes as the games start to count.
I don’t expect the Sixers to use a 10-man rotation in the playoffs. If you consider Glenn Robinson III, Alec Burks, and Shake Milton/Al Horford as locks in the second unit — which I do — Thybulle and Korkmaz quickly run out of space. If Brown decides to use a ninth player, my expectation is Thybulle will earn the role.
This is a difficult one to peg down. Thybulle is less experienced than Korkmaz, even if the latter never really played until this season. Thybulle is also a virtual zero on offense — someone the defense pays little attention to. That’s an even bigger issue in the playoffs, when possessions slow down and defenses are as coordinated as ever.
Even so, Thybulle brings a vibrant presence to the defensive end that few players can rival. He’s a turnover machine — in a good way — which leads to transition opportunities for Ben Simmons and the Sixers’ up-tempo offense. He creates havoc and can swing the momentum of a game with a handful of deflections.
Korkmaz is the opposite of Thybulle. He commands attention as a shooter, but he’s simultaneously the worst defender on the roster. Opposing offenses will hunt switches and target Korkmaz at every turn. Whereas Thybulle can clog up the offense, Korkmaz can single-handedly unravel the Sixers’ defensive scheme.
Brown has shown an affinity for defense in the past, and while the Sixers need shooting, Korkmaz is too streaky to negate his shortcomings. With Thybulle, at least the Sixers have someone who can help suffocate the opposition’s high-level scorers.
2. Shake Milton vs. Alec Burks
Brett Brown mentioned Shake Milton and Alec Burks specifically when discussing hypothetical points of comparison (and contention) on the roster. So it’s only fitting to include them here. This is a bit of a dark-horse “battle,” but Burks is someone to watch as the season resumes.
For all the praise Milton has (deservedly) received, he has only a few weeks of sustained NBA success under his belt. “Youth.” Burks is a nine-year veteran who, before the trade deadline, averaged 16.1 points per game. He’s no scrub, and it’s not unrealistic to project him — not Milton — as the Sixers’ fifth starter or sixth man, depending on Horford’s role.
I’m of the opinion Milton should start, and by extension, win this competition. But Burks has a longer resume and fills a very similar role. He can shoot at a high volume, defend his position, and create in spurts from the perimeter. With three weeks of practice to get more acclimated to Philadelphia’s system — not to mention three months to marinate in what he has already picked up — don’t be surprised if Burks sees a major spike in minutes once the season resumes.
Either way, Burks and Milton should both receive large slices of the rotational pie in Orlando. The Sixers desperately need shooters and ball-handlers to spice up a stale and stagnant halfcourt offense. Burks and Milton are the clearest source of both.
If Brown wants to run more pick-and-rolls, Burks and Milton can oblige. If Brown wants to run more off-ball actions for shooters, Burks and Milton can oblige. If Brown wants to run more DHOs, Burks and Milton can oblige. This is one of the most consequential “battles” set to take place.
1. Joel Embiid vs. Al Horford
The first two slides featured battles for a specific role or workload in the rotation. This is different. Joel Embiid and Al Horford are not going head-to-head for minutes. It’s more a question of how many minutes will they spend together, rather than who will supplant the other.
When Brown discussed the Embiid-Horford conundrum on Tuesday, he put it in simple (yet vague) terms.
"“There is kind of a Team Al and a Team Joel and you figure out what that world is and then there is the integration of the two. When you start taking a deep dive on those three things that I just said and take some analytics into that like ‘what do we do offensively and defensively?’ and you start to get a clearer idea of what you do well. Somewhere with all of that, I’ll be able to give a clearer answer of what I think once we start to play again.”"
In Brown’s mind, there are two versions of the Sixers: when Joel is on the court, and when Al is on the court. His job is to balance both, and figure out how to blend both versions together. Embiid and Horford will eventually need to share the court, but how often, in which lineup configurations, and at which points in the game?
This is the most pressing question facing Brown and the Sixers as the NBA’s re-start looms. Horford will undeniably play a key role in the Sixers’ success or demise, but he has yet to find a comfortable role in Philadelphia’s system. The Sixers are short on time to make it work, at least this season.
Horford is not getting paid over $100 million to play 10 minutes a night as Embiid’s backup. Yet how many minutes can the Sixers afford to play Horford at power forward — and conversely, how many can they afford to play him at center?
There is no clear answer. I’m not sure Horford will ever work out in Philadelphia. At least not while Embiid (and to a lesser degree, Ben Simmons) are on the roster. But for Brown, a decision of some kind must be made. Expect a lot of rumors to come out of the Sixers’ three-week training camp, with most of them addressing the Horford issue.
If anything, this is a battle to make Embiid and Horford work.