How will the Philadelphia 76ers do without Ben Simmons in the playoffs?

Can the Philadelphia 76ers survive Ben Simmons’ absence?

The injury bug has bitten the Philadelphia 76ers once again. For the second time this year, All-Star Ben Simmons has suffered a significant injury that will have him out indefinitely. Although the Sixers defeated the Orlando Magic on Friday night,  Ben Simmons fans and the 76ers are in a dubious position.

Some will argue that the team’s offense flowed better as a result of Simmons’ absence. Others will say that the team has a limited chance of advancing playoff rounds without his production. Instead of taking sides in this article, let’s lay out some of the consequences for the upcoming playoff series, should Ben Simmons miss significant time.

What will the Sixers miss?

Ben Simmons is a thoroughbred. He’s been labeled one of the NBA’s fastest players in the open court. His ability to grab a rebound and shoot out like a bullet on a fast break is invaluable. His vision, on that same fast break, is what leads to countless easy baskets. Teammates who have benefited from Simmons’ assists in transition admit that he finds them in certain spots that most skilled guards are unable to do.

"On Ben Simmons, Glenn Robinson III said, “I love playing with a pass-first guy, an unselfish guy. It’s great to be able to see a guy that’s looking for his teammates, that’s able to pass, run the floor like that.”"

On the defensive side of the ball, Ben Simmons has been in discussion as making the All-Defensive first team. Although he was snubbed from the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year finalists list, Simmons’ deflection rate and overall steal numbers could easily refute their evaluation. Before the coronavirus hit, Simmons was considered a lockdown defender. Since he’s been in the bubble, he hasn’t been as formidable, but in the playoffs he could have regained that tenacity and provided significant stops on opponents’ top wing players.

The third negative impact is that this injury impedes any progress in the team chemistry department. The bond inside the bubble for the 76ers appears to have been solidifying at just the right time. The two All-Stars, Simmons and Embiid, seemed to be building stronger connections on the court and off of it. In an interview with Spike Eskin and Mike Levin on the Rights to Ricky Sanchez podcast, Embiid declared his desire to play his entire career with Ben Simmons. So, now that Ben Simmons is out, any on-court chemistry between the two will have to be delayed.

What will the Sixers not miss?

People question who will provide scoring and defense while Simmons is convalescing in Disney. Judging by last night’s rotation and performance, Al Horford and Alec Burks seem to be maximizing their opportunity to fill Simmons’ void.  Burks’ scoring from the perimeter has been like rain after a drought. He dropped 22 points last night and made 53 percent of his shots. Horford’s defense and rebounding have stepped up nicely the past few games. Against the Magic, he grabbed nine boards, had one block, and broke up several plays.

What about overall minutes? Who gets them? With Shake Milton already having taken the point guard spot, and Matisse Thybulle earning a rotation spot with his defensive prowling, their minutes are not connected to Simmons. Therefore, it appears that Glenn Robinson III and Furkan Korkmaz could take most of Simmons’ minutes.

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If Robinson III returns soon, he would be a nice wing defender in the playoffs, picking up where Simmons left off. His scoring abilities would be welcomed as well. Korkmaz is nowhere near the passing or defensive threat as Simmons, but given extra minutes, Korkmaz could space the floor and knockdown open 3s with Embiid passing so adroitly out of double teams lately. Speaking of spacing…

Another positive that Sixers fans can expect in the absence of Ben Simmons is how much more open the offense will be, in the paint and on the perimeter. Judging from their performance against the Magic, the passing and movement within their sets seemed more fluid. Some would argue that the Sixers did not shoot a high percentage and that Ben could have made the difference. The retort for that would stand on the effectiveness of both Embiid and Horford coexisting nicely in the offense without Ben Simmons clogging the paint or being a non-factor at the 3-point line.

In the starting lineup, running plays without Ben Simmons on the floor gives Joel Embiid four viable passing options instead of three. 76ers fans have gotten so used to Simmons’ shooting limitations, that the idea of getting frequent, wide-open 3-pointers out of any Embiid double teams seems foreign. When the game tips off in the first quarter, any team that doubles Embiid in the post will suffer the consequences of leaving Horford, Milton, Harris, and Richardson open for 3. This makes the Sixers extremely tough to defend.

Not to harp on Ben’s Simmons offensive shortcomings, but since he’s been playing in Orlando, his numbers are far from impressive. In the Wizards game, he was 2-for-10 shooting and a -3. Against the Spurs, he fouled out and was also a -3. Go back to the Pacers loss, where Simmons had as many turnovers as assists and was a -11.

His 50 percent free throw percentage has been atrocious. If the scrimmages and first few seeding games since the return were supposed to shake off any rust, it didn’t work for Simmons. He did attempt a 3-point shot in the game where he was injured, but he fell back into the habit of throwing up awkward shots in the lane that had no chance of going in the moment they left his hands.

Think about how the quality of shots taken in his absence will significantly increase with scorers like Alec Burks and Tobias Harris. Translation — more touches in the halfcourt offense from Horford, Harris, and Burks will benefit the team more than if Simmons were to have the same volume of scoring opportunities.

Moving forward

The cloud inside of the crystal ball for the 76ers future just got cloudier.

In the short term, they could be in trouble. In the long term, the ripple effects could be devastating. With the type of injury that Simmons suffered and the procedure he will undergo, there is a slim chance he could return for a deep run in the playoffs. However, would he want to rush back and risk reinjury for a season that could go down in history books with an asterisk next to it? Will Brett Brown panic and try to reinsert Simmons into the lineup to save his head coaching job? Or, does he see the emergence of Alec Burks and rebirth of Al Horford’s game as an asset to the future success of the team?

With four seeding games before the playoffs, some tough decisions must be made. In the next few weeks, so much is riding on the knee of Ben Simmons. Will the Sixers have enough talent to take them to the promised land in his absence, or will his absence lead to a first round disappointment?

Want to hear more discussion about Simmons’ injury impact on the team? Check out the next episode of The Sixer Sense Podcast, to be released on Monday, August 10.