Sixers vs. Celtics: Predictions for first round of 2020 NBA playoffs

Christopher Kline

My gut reaction was Celtics in six. This is a favorable matchup for Joel Embiid, who has dominated almost every second of his healthy minutes in Orlando. Embiid had his way with Boston in the regular season, the Sixers won the season series 3-1, and Philadelphia has proven itself capable of overwhelming smaller opponents.

That said, there’s a reason the Celtics are the No. 3 seed, and conversely, there’s a reason the Sixers at the No. 6 seed. Boston has been a categorically better team all season, and the Celtics enter the postseason with far more positive momentum than Philadelphia.

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Embiid has been beaten up the past four games for the Sixers. He will enter this series with a hurt wrist and eight games of fresh wear and tear on his body. The Sixers will also be without the one person who has any chance of stopping Jayson Tatum. Ben Simmons’ absence will irrevocably harm a Sixers defense that has been less than the sum of its parts all season.

Without Simmons, Tatum will probably have his way. The Sixers need Al Horford, Shake Milton, and Tobias Harris to defend some combination of Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Gordon Hayward. There isn’t a single favorable matchup there. Josh Richardson will probably draw the Kemba Walker assignment, and even that matchup leaves me uneasy.

I’m all for Matisse Thybulle, but he’s a rookie prone to foul trouble who has never played on a stage this big. The Celtics are full of smart, crafty offensive players who can exploit his every lapse in concentration. An errant leap, and Tatum will pump fake and draw a foul. An ill-advised reach, and Walker drills the pull-up 3.

The Celtics will have an advantage over Philadelphia’s defense equal to or superior to Philadelphia’s advantage over Boston’s smaller defenders. Embiid may dominate, but there’s a good chance multiple Celtics do the same. Philadelphia’s perimeter defense — barring performances greatly exceeding the norm — is about to get shredded.

This series will provide a good litmus test for those who argue Embiid can lead a championship team. Even if the Sixers inevitably lose the series, any success will rest on Embiid’s shoulders. He will need to carry Philadelphia, and if he does so — if he makes this a competitive series — the Sixers can at least enter the offseason with some level of confidence in the future.

That said, the more I think about it, the less I like the Sixers’ chances. I’m taking the Celtics, and frankly, I’m not sure it will be close. I hope I’m wrong — I would love seven games of duke-it-out, high-intensity basketball — but alas, seldom can the Philadelphia fanbase have nice things.

FINAL PREDICTION: Celtics in 5

Click here for the Sixers-Celtics schedule, dates, and T.V. slots.