The Sixers are back in the playoffs! Now what?
No sane-minded individual would claim the Sixers “lived up to expectations” this season. And yet, despite a slew of disappointments and more oddities out of a gothic horror novel, the Philadelphia 76ers are primed to face — you guessed it — the Boston Celtics in the NBA playoffs.
Time is a flat circle.
The Sixers are major underdogs in this series despite having its best player (Joel Embiid) and having won the season series 3-1. On paper, this is a series made for Embiid to dominate. It is, however, also a series — on paper — that doesn’t favor Philadelphia in virtually any other area.
Beyond Embiid, the Sixers are at a severe disadvantage. Even if Matisse Thybulle transforms into the basketball love child of Robert Covington and Scottie Pippen, I’m not sure Philadelphia’s perimeter defense can contain the Celtics bevy of wings. This is an uphill battle for a Sixers team that still hasn’t clicked on all cylinders.
My prediction is simple. Joel Embiid will do work, the Sixers will make proactive adjustments — a frustrating rarity in the Brett Brown era — and despite it all, Boston will waltz into a second-round matchup with the Toronto Raptors. Celtics in five is my pick.
As the Game 1 approaches — tonight, August 17 at 6:30 PM E.T., to be exact — here are three things to watch for.
3. The second unit
The expectation is Brett Brown will use a nine-man rotation in the playoffs. Let’s assume that Thybulle starts in place of Al Horford, which seems imminently possible given the matchups in this series. The second unit locks are Horford, Furkan Korkmaz, and Alec Burks.
The ninth man, however, is undecided. The favorite to inhabit that spot was Glenn Robinson III, who is now expected to miss at least the next few games. In his place, Mike Scott is the tentative favorite, and to a degree, I understand it. The Sixers should look to leverage their size advantage in this series.
With that said, Scott has never once leveraged his size advantage. Maybe not true, but it happens very rarely. He’d just as soon take a one-legged fadeaway over Isaiah Thomas. Scott is fine when he’s hitting 3s — which has been the case in Orlando — but he’s not the kind of player who can turn a series around.
I’m interested to see if Brett Brown turns to Raul Neto at any point in this series. The Sixers’ most fluid offense comes with real guards on the floor. Neto is the only true point guard on the roster. He doesn’t commit lazy turnovers, and he’s a spunky slasher who can penetrate the defense to create for others.
Neto averaged over 17 points per contest in the Sixers’ final three seedings games, and on the surface, his skill set is much more useful than Scott’s. There are valid defensive concerns with Neto — who the Celtics would surely target — but his offensive contributions have gone a long way as of late.
He’s a useful player, and someone Brown should think about using in this series. At the very least, Brown should keep him in his back pocket if things go sideways. Neto can provide a needed spark off the pine.
2. Defensive rotations
Yikes!
The Sixers do not match up well in this series. While Embiid can certainly dominate Daniel Theis, and he should have no trouble defending Theis on the other end, the Sixers are thoroughly outgunned at every other position.
Again, for argument’s sake, let’s assume Thybulle starts over Horford (the right decision). He probably draws the initial assignment on Jayson Tatum. He is Philadelphia’s best hope against Tatum, and his penchant for chaos is oftentimes a boon to the Sixers’ defense.
However, on no planet — and especially not earth — is the current rookie version of Matisse Thybulle someone you can expect to reliably contain Tatum in a seven-game series. It’s just not happening. Thybulle may have one or two brilliant games, but he will probably answer them with games marred by foul trouble and poor decision-making. He’s still a rookie.
Josh Richardson will defend Kemba Walker, which is fine. He’s good enough to hold Walker below 40, hopefully. Then you have Tobias Harris defending Gordon Hayward — palatable, but not a great matchup — and Shake Milton getting roasted and toasted by Jaylen Brown.
Milton is a certifiably weak defender who, despite his admirable physical traits, simple lacks the strength and awareness to defend at a high level in the postseason. He may get better in time, but right now, Milton is a series weak point for the Sixers. Don’t be surprised if Alec Burks ends up playing more minutes than him.
Here’s the final outlook.
- Shake Milton –> Jaylen Brown
- Josh Richardson –> Kemba Walker
- Matisse Thybulle –> Jayson Tatum
- Tobias Harris –> Gordon Hayward
- Joel Embiid –> Daniel Theis
It could be worse, but this is far from ideal. And we won’t even talk about Korkmaz or Scott, who are now in line for significant minutes following the Robinson injury.
Here’s what I mean by “it could be worse.”
- Shake Milton –> Jaylen Brown
- Josh Richardson –> Kemba Walker
- Tobias Harris –> Jayson Tatum
- Al Horford –> Gordon Hayward
- Joel Embiid –> Daniel Theis
:/
The Sixers should start Thybulle.
Also of note is Marcus Smart, who will receive minutes off the bench and probably overwhelm just about every player currently in Philadelphia’s second unit, as well as anyone not named Josh or Matisse. Not. Great. Bob.
1. Embiid’s health
Once upon a time, Joel Embiid arrived in Orlando in “the best shape of his career,” or close to it. Naturally, he experienced calf tightness after half a scrimmage game, later tweaked his ankle on the stanchion, then hurt his wrist.
Oh, Sixers.
Embiid will not appear on the injury report for anything serious, if at all, ahead of Monday’s throwdown with Boston. He played through his wrist injury in the Sixers’ win over Houston, and one can assume his wrist has healed further in the days since. At least, such an assumption could be made if the Sixers were a normal team.
Even so, the Sixers will need to carefully monitor Embiid’s workload in this series. He’s the lifeblood of all things good for Philadelphia. He’s the main generator on offense and the defensive anchor. Without Ben Simmons, he will be at the center of any competitive run from the Sixers. He can single-handedly determine if Philadelphia competes or not.
The Sixers will need Embiid to play a lot of minutes (and play a lot of minutes at a high level) in order to win this series. Brett Brown’s seat is hotter than most, and he will therefore be compelled to win at all costs. How Embiid’s usage and minutes shake out is a top storyline in this game and beyond.
Can Embiid hold up as the undisputed top dog in a seven-game series. We have yet to find out. This is his most punishing test yet. Let’s see if he passes.