A question from the Philadelphia 76ers to the NBA at large.
The Philadelphia 76ers signed Al Horford to a four-year, $109 million contract last summer. It is a well-documented mistake, and there’s no need for us to rehash the disastrousness of that move. It was bad. We can move on.
Now, the Sixers must explore the trade market. If Horford is on the roster next season, it assures a complete waste of cap space — $27.5 million for a backup center who will still get jammed into a larger role than he deserves because of his contract and status.
Even with a new coach, there’s no way to make Horford “work” in Philadelphia. Sure, more creative sets may expand his production on offense, but he’s never going to come close to providing the level of play Philadelphia needs to justify such a large chunk of a league-high tax sheet. He cannot play next to Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons simultaneously — a tandem the Sixers are invested in — and he’s no longer a net-positive defender.
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On the season, Horford averaged 11.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in 30.2 minutes per game. He shot a career-low 45 percent from the field, and despite relative success from 3-point range — boosted substantially by a hot stretch in the Orlando bubble — Horford’s appeal as a “floor spacer” has diminished substantially to any attentive viewer.
The Sixers can improve elsewhere along the margins, but it’s difficult to envision a truly competitive season with Horford still getting significant playing time — unless someone like Chris Paul is brought in to replace Tobias Harris.
Assuming the Sixers cannot swap Harris for a championship-level creator, a Horford trade is the Sixers’ clearest path to financial flexibility or, simply, a more balanced roster. With that said, who actually wants to trade for Horford?
The answer is probably no one. No team will actively seek out Horford. The Warriors will not ring Philadelphia’s line for a past-his-prime big who doesn’t protect the rim. The Hornets and Pistons are rebuilding, sure, but why waste valuable cap flexibility on Horford’s rusty wheels?
In short, the Sixers will need to part with valuable assets to turn Horford into anything of use, even if “anything of use” simply means “slightly less harmful bad contracts.” The Horford situation is a sizable roadblock, and Philadelphia will need to get creative in order to navigate around it.
Here are the teams who I could see feasibly taking on Horford’s contract.
- Cleveland, Detroit, Sacramento, Charlotte, Oklahoma City
The Sixers can offer enough picks to make any team listen, but aside from completely mortgaging the future, Philadelphia will have trouble getting Horford off the books. He either eats into cap space — which is one of the most valuable assets in a rebuild — or he simply lacks importance to modern-day contenders.
Horford plays, to some, the position of least import in 2020. He also happens to struggle as a rim protector, which is the root of most value for successful postseason bigs. He’s not as spry as he once was defending in space, and his offensive repertoire — while probably better in a more friendly team environment — no longer carries the shine it once did in Boston or Atlanta.
Even if a team believes Horford can return to form in a different system, the Sixers will have zero leverage, and the narrative plays distinctly against them. He is a 34-year-old with at least two fully guaranteed years left on his albatross contract. There is simply no situation in which another team is champing at the bit to trade for Al Horford.
The Sixers can trade Horford, and they should do everything within reason to do so. But do not expect more than middling contributors in return, and expect some combination of Matisse Thybulle, Shake Milton, and/or first-round picks to head out the door alongside Horford.
Note: Check the site in the coming days for an article in which I will delve into some potential Horford trade packages.