The Sixers are currently first in the East despite the extended absence of Joel Embiid. With the All-Star center expected to miss at least a couple more games before returning to the court, his MVP case has been irrefutably tarnished.
That said, one cannot remove Embiid from the conversation entirely. Here’s how his chances currently stack up.
NBA MVP candidate #5: Damian Lillard
This is easily Damian Lillard’s strongest MVP candidacy to date. Has has once again kept the Blazers afloat despite several injuries on the roster, including long absences from CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. Portland is 28-18, only 1.5 games away from home-court advantage in the West. The Blazers are putting together a historically strong offensive season, and Lillard is at the core of everything they do.
In 44 games, Lillard has averaged 29.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 7.8 assists on .446/.374/.944 shooting splits. His potency off the dribble, combined with elite off-ball movement and shooting, makes for a near impossible defensive assignment. There’s a reason Dame Time is among the most popular NBA colloquialisms. He’s one of the NBA’s most clutch performers, and one of its most entertaining.
Lillard does not carry the defensive weight of other names on this list, thus he doesn’t rank higher, but the offensive production is elite. If Portland can continue to climb in the standings, then there’s a real chance voters start to favor Lillard.
NBA MVP candidate #4: Joel Embiid
Embiid has played the best basketball of any player in the NBA this season. There are valid contenders to his throne — every name on this list, and even a few who didn’t make the cut — but none have peaked where Embiid peaked. The injury has taken games off his résumé, but the impact on winning keeps the 7-footer firmly in the race.
In 31 games this season, Embiid has averaged 29.9 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists on .525/.422/.859 shooting splits. He is one of, if not the most efficient scorers in basketball. Combine that with a real Defensive Player of the Year case, and it’s impossible to keep even the injury-hampered Embiid out of the top five.
To paraphrase Sixers President Daryl Morey, MVP voters lack consistency. The narrative can veer in many different directions depending on the year. Sometimes it’s based on games won. Sometimes it’s based on counting stats. Sometimes it’s based on true impact. If the voters want to reward the best overall player on one of the best overall teams, then how can Embiid not get credit?
Some voters, however, live by the old adage of “the best ability is availability.” Embiid has not been as available to his team as other players on this list, to no fault of his own. It’s unfortunate, but Embiid’s clearest MVP case yet — and feasibly ever — could be derailed by a freak bone bruise. We all remember how his Rookie of the Year campaign turned out.
NBA MVP candidate #3: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Frankly, the general NBA fandom has underrated Giannis Antetokounmpo this season. Perhaps it’s voter fatigue. He has won two MVPs in a row, and the Bucks are in third place, not first place. That said, MVP is currently a three-horse race if we are to disqualify Embiid on the basis of games played. Giannis is one of those three horses.
The rangy 7-footer has done all the things we have come to expect from arguably the best two-way player in basketball. Giannis is (or should be) a shoo-in for first team All-Defense, he’s scoring as efficiently as ever, and he continues to improve the ancillary aspects of his game.
Antetokounmpo covers more ground defensively than just about any NBA player. He does the same offensively, galloping ahead of and around defenders in transition, or using his long strides to snake into the paint and collapse the defense. In 43 games, he is averaging 28.4 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 6.3 assists on .556/.303/.679 shooting splits. Those are MVP numbers.
The Bucks still have plenty of time to claim the No. 1 seed with a good stretch of basketball. They are one of three clear contenders in the East, and despite some uncommon inconsistencies for a regular season Mike Budenholzer team, there is no way around Antetokounmpo’s wide-ranging impact on both sides of the ball.
NBA MVP candidate #2: James Harden
The Nets are on the verge of claiming the No. 1 seed in the East, in large part due to the ongoing brilliance of James Harden. My opinion of Harden has been well documented — he is one of the greatest offensive players ever to touch a basketball. He manipulates defenses, both as a scorer and as a passer, better than anyone.
In 40 games this season, Harden is averaging 26.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 11.2 assists on .463/.362/.867 shooting splits. The Nets have undergone an extended absence from Kevin Durant without missing a beat. Harden is at the core of the NBA’s most potent offense — an elite set-up man who orchestrates the moving parts and, occasionally, fulfills his status as the top isolation scorer in the game.
Brooklyn can out-gun just about anyone, and people will quickly point to the talent on the roster when campaigning against Harden. The Nets, however, have been without Durant for the bulk of Harden’s stay, and Irving’s multiple personal absences have not gone unnoticed. Concerns about the Nets’ depth have been present all season, and should not be suddenly forgotten when analyzing Harden’s case. He is the best player on arguably the best team.
Harden has effectively ended any narrative of “selfishness” on the court. He has been more than happy to spread the wealth as the Nets’ undisputed point guard. He is leading the NBA in assists, and is the centripetal force upon which the league’s most potent offense revolves.
NBA MVP candidate #1: Nikola Jokic
Any lingering doubts have been thoroughly silenced — Nikola Jokic is one of the best in the business. While Denver has been slightly disappointing overall, the Nuggets are only one game out of fourth place in the cutthroat West. Jokic has elevated a collection of inconsistent and underperforming players all season long, and it could result in another deep playoff run.
In 47 games, Jokic has averaged 26.8 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 8.5 assists on .571/.425/.867 shooting splits. Even when Embiid was healthy, Jokic (and to a lesser extent, LeBron) was his main competition in this awards race. Now, it’s the Joker’s race to lose. Or, the necessary caveat — it should be Jokic’s to lose.
Both Harden and Giannis, not to mention Embiid and Lillard, have strong claims to the throne. Even so, it’s borderline impossible not to list Jokic at No.1 right now. His impact on the game offensively is unlike any other 7-footer. He’s not only one of the NBA’s most gifted facilitators, but he has developed into a top-tier individual scorer. What Jokic lacks in quickness and athleticism, he makes up for with unrivaled craft and timing.
Jokic can carry the Nuggets as a scorer or as a playmaker. His light-speed decisions and 360-degree court vision make it nearly impossible for defenses to fully contain him. He can make every pass in the book, and then some. With his size, his deep shooting range, and a bag full to the brim with nifty step-backs and side-steps, even the best one-on-one defenders find themselves victims of a clever move.
Also of note is Jokic’s defense, which isn’t close to the weakness some make it out to be. In fact, he’s a rather good defender, averaging 1.6 steals per game — seventh in the NBA — and using his stocky frame to stonewall attempts at the rim. He is, as of now, your 2020-21 MVP.