Milwaukee Bucks
Sixers offense vs. Bucks defense
Unlike the Nets, the Bucks have a good defense, ranking eighth in the NBA in defensive rating. The Bucks have the reigning defensive player of the year in Giannis Antetokounmpo, an elite perimeter stopper in Jrue Holiday, and no weak links in their top rotation pieces. Giannis and Jrue will make Simmons and Harris work for everything. When these teams played early in the season, the Sixers could not generate any offense from the perimeter, although Embiid did not play in that game.
The key matchup will be how Brook Lopez holds up against Embiid. Lopez is a solid defender but Embiid should not have trouble with the slower Lopez. If Lopez gets in foul trouble, the Bucks will have to play backup center Bobby Portis, who has no chance to guard Embiid.
Overall, while this is a nice matchup for Embiid, the Sixers will struggle to generate offense from the perimeter.
VERDICT: Even
Sixers defense vs. Bucks offense
Despite a relatively down season for the Bucks, the offense has actually been very good, ranking sixth in the NBA. They run their offense through a combination of Giannis, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday and shoot plenty of threes while putting pressure on the rim.
The good news for Philadelphia is that they are one of the few teams with the size to actually guard Antetokounmpo, particularly with Simmons and Embiid. While Danny Green struggles against quicker guards, he does well against bigger and craftier wings, so he should be up for guarding Middleton. Harris can also help on the wings, and Thybulle and Hill should be fine on Holiday.
Overall, the Sixers’ defense matches up very well against the Bucks on defense and should be able to limit what they do well.
VERDICT: Edge Sixers
Sixers stars vs. Bucks stars
The stars actually match up very evenly, both in terms of talent and style. Embiid and Giannis are both All-NBA candidates who should roughly cancel each other out, although Embiid has been slightly better this season. Both are elite defenders and interior finishers, and Embiid adds some additional shooting while Giannis contributes more playmaking.
Middleton and Harris have both been 20+ point scorers on high efficiency, scoring from all three levels. Both are solid defenders on the wing who can do a little bit of everything for their respective teams. There is very little difference between the two this season, although Middleton may have a slightly better track record.
Simmons and Holiday both provide elite perimeter defense and very good but not elite offense. Simmons is much bigger and more versatile on the defensive end, but Holiday is much less of a liability in the half-court on offense with his respectable shooting. Simmons has much more upside and would impact the series more if he plays at his full potential, but Holiday is a bit more steady.
Overall, the stars are pretty even in this matchup.
VERDICT: Even
Sixers role players vs. Bucks role players
Unlike the past few seasons, the Bucks are short on depth this year. Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo are solid starters, but the Bucks don’t have much beyond them. Milwaukee’s main reserves are Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis, and DJ Augustin, none of whom should scare the Sixers and should be attacked on the defensive end. If Lopez gets into foul trouble guarding Embiid (which will most likely happen at least a few games in the series), Portis will have to check the big man. Good luck, Bobby.
Even if the Sixers’ bench is not amazing, they have enough options to outplay the Bucks’ bench and gain an advantage here.
VERDICT: Slight edge Sixers
Doc Rivers vs. Mike Budenholzer
While Mike Budenholzer is an amazing regular season coach, he has had severe issues adjusting in the playoffs over the past few seasons. While Doc had his issues last season, Coach Bud has been much worse, failing to alter his defensive system or play his stars more minutes. Until Bud shows that he can adapt, Rivers and Philadelphia have the edge here.
VERDICT: Edge Sixers
Sixers vs. Bucks Series Prediction
This would be another amazing series between two elite teams led by their freak MVP candidates. Unlike the series against the Nets, I would give the Sixers a slight edge against the Bucks, but this would also be a very competitive series.
VERDICT: Slight edge Sixers