The Sixers have a legitimate shot at reaching the NBA finals for the first time since 2001, but the path will not be easy.
Barring a drastic change, Philadelphia will have to play at least one of the Brooklyn Nets or the Milwaukee Bucks to make the Finals. If the Sixers fail to get the number one seed, they will most likely have to play both teams in the playoffs to reach the Finals.
The East is shaping up to be a three-team race between the Sixers, Nets, and Bucks. How do the Sixers stack up against the elites of the East?
Philadelphia, Brooklyn, and Milwaukee currently comprise the top three seeds in the Eastern Conference, with a 4.5-game difference between the third-place Bucks and the fourth-place Hawks. Now that the rosters are set post-trade and buyout deadline, let’s take a look at how the Sixers match up with the Nets and Bucks and who has the advantages in different aspects of the game.
Brooklyn Nets
Sixers offense vs. Nets defense
There are legitimate concerns on how Philadelphia will score against playoff level defenses, but these concerns should dissipate against the Nets. While the Sixers are only 14th in offensive rating this season, the Nets are an awful 25th in defensive rating. Also, the Sixers’ offense matchups up extremely well against the Nets and should have no issue scoring.
The Nets are very limited at the center position, so Joel Embiid should feast on this matchup. The Sixers team as a whole prefers to attack the rim and the Nets do not have much rim protection. While Durant can guard one of Ben Simmons or Tobias Harris, the Nets don’t really have a second big wing defender to match up with either of the two.
Overall, the Sixers have a distinct edge in this matchup.
VERDICT: Edge Sixers
Sixers defense vs. Nets offense
This will be a very interesting matchup of two juggernaut units. The Sixers have the second-best defensive rating in the NBA and the Nets have the third-best offensive rating in the NBA. Everything runs through the Nets’ big three of Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and Kevin Durant, but the Nets also boast a collection of complementary offensive players to supplement the stars.
Ben Simmons can lock up one of the three stars, but the Sixers will have to test different matchups for the other two stars. Harris may have to guard Durant and Matisse Thybulle can make life tough for either Kyrie or Harden in his minutes. The Sixers will have to hope that Danny Green and George Hill can hold their own against one of the stars in spot minutes, and Seth Curry may get targeted by using his man as the screener in a pick-and-roll.
Embiid could actually be the x-factor here. The Sixers typically play drop pick-and-roll coverage, but that won’t work against the off-the-dribble shooting of the Nets. If Embiid can provide rim protection while surviving on the perimeter, the Sixers will have a chance in this matchup. Still, the Nets have so much firepower that it is tough to favor the Sixers in this matchup.
VERDICT: Edge Nets
Sixers stars vs. Nets stars
The battle between Embiid, Simmons, and Harris vs. Durant, Harden, and Irving is certainly not short in star power. Embiid has arguably been the most valuable player on a per-minute basis this season and should be able to go toe-to-toe with Durant, who is the Nets’ best player. The real battle will be who has more impact between the Simmons/Harris and Harden/Irving duos.
Harden and Irving have the edge, but Simmons and Harris have shown high-level upside before. They would have to play the best basketball of their lives to match up with the Nets stars, making it a longshot but possible. Overall, the Nets get the edge here, particularly as their stars have done it on the highest level before.
VERDICT: Edge Nets
Sixers role players vs. Nets role players
While the Nets may have more talent amongst the role players, the Sixers’ supporting cast fits better around the team’s stars. Between Joe Harris, Blake Griffin, and LaMarcus Aldridge, the Nets have plenty of offensive support but very little defense. Bruce Brown, DeAndre Jordan, Nic Claxton, and Jeff Green are solid players who understand their roles but not much more than that. The issue is that the Nets’ stars provide plenty of offense but need defensive help, something most of the role players do not offer.
Philadelphia’s supporting cast may not be as talented but certainly fit better around the stars. Green, Hill, and Curry are perfect fits with the stars, and Shake Milton, Dwight Howard, and Thybulle provide solid depth off the bench. Once the Sixers get fully healthy and Hill can up his minutes, the team will look much deeper.
Ultimately, this battle will come down to how much the Nets’ veterans have left in the tank against how much the Sixers’ younger role players can continue to develop.
VERDICT: Even
Doc Rivers vs. Steve Nash
Up until last season with the Clippers, Doc Rivers has had a strong playoff resume as a coach. Rivers has already won a championship with the Celtics and has been in numerous playoff series with the Clippers. On the other hand, Steve Nash is in his first season as a head coach and has not been in this situation before. Nash played in big games as a player and has a seasoned staff, but no one knows how he reacts in the playoffs until adversity begins.
If Doc learns from his failure to adjust in the 2020 playoffs, the Sixers should have an advantage here.
VERDICT: Edge Sixers
Sixers vs. Nets Series Prediction
This would be an amazing six or seven-game series between two fun and elite teams. I would give the slight edge to the Nets, but the Sixers have a realistic shot at taking down the NBA’s latest superteam.
VERDICT: Slight edge Nets
Milwaukee Bucks
Sixers offense vs. Bucks defense
Unlike the Nets, the Bucks have a good defense, ranking eighth in the NBA in defensive rating. The Bucks have the reigning defensive player of the year in Giannis Antetokounmpo, an elite perimeter stopper in Jrue Holiday, and no weak links in their top rotation pieces. Giannis and Jrue will make Simmons and Harris work for everything. When these teams played early in the season, the Sixers could not generate any offense from the perimeter, although Embiid did not play in that game.
The key matchup will be how Brook Lopez holds up against Embiid. Lopez is a solid defender but Embiid should not have trouble with the slower Lopez. If Lopez gets in foul trouble, the Bucks will have to play backup center Bobby Portis, who has no chance to guard Embiid.
Overall, while this is a nice matchup for Embiid, the Sixers will struggle to generate offense from the perimeter.
VERDICT: Even
Sixers defense vs. Bucks offense
Despite a relatively down season for the Bucks, the offense has actually been very good, ranking sixth in the NBA. They run their offense through a combination of Giannis, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday and shoot plenty of threes while putting pressure on the rim.
The good news for Philadelphia is that they are one of the few teams with the size to actually guard Antetokounmpo, particularly with Simmons and Embiid. While Danny Green struggles against quicker guards, he does well against bigger and craftier wings, so he should be up for guarding Middleton. Harris can also help on the wings, and Thybulle and Hill should be fine on Holiday.
Overall, the Sixers’ defense matches up very well against the Bucks on defense and should be able to limit what they do well.
VERDICT: Edge Sixers
Sixers stars vs. Bucks stars
The stars actually match up very evenly, both in terms of talent and style. Embiid and Giannis are both All-NBA candidates who should roughly cancel each other out, although Embiid has been slightly better this season. Both are elite defenders and interior finishers, and Embiid adds some additional shooting while Giannis contributes more playmaking.
Middleton and Harris have both been 20+ point scorers on high efficiency, scoring from all three levels. Both are solid defenders on the wing who can do a little bit of everything for their respective teams. There is very little difference between the two this season, although Middleton may have a slightly better track record.
Simmons and Holiday both provide elite perimeter defense and very good but not elite offense. Simmons is much bigger and more versatile on the defensive end, but Holiday is much less of a liability in the half-court on offense with his respectable shooting. Simmons has much more upside and would impact the series more if he plays at his full potential, but Holiday is a bit more steady.
Overall, the stars are pretty even in this matchup.
VERDICT: Even
Sixers role players vs. Bucks role players
Unlike the past few seasons, the Bucks are short on depth this year. Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo are solid starters, but the Bucks don’t have much beyond them. Milwaukee’s main reserves are Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis, and DJ Augustin, none of whom should scare the Sixers and should be attacked on the defensive end. If Lopez gets into foul trouble guarding Embiid (which will most likely happen at least a few games in the series), Portis will have to check the big man. Good luck, Bobby.
Even if the Sixers’ bench is not amazing, they have enough options to outplay the Bucks’ bench and gain an advantage here.
VERDICT: Slight edge Sixers
Doc Rivers vs. Mike Budenholzer
While Mike Budenholzer is an amazing regular season coach, he has had severe issues adjusting in the playoffs over the past few seasons. While Doc had his issues last season, Coach Bud has been much worse, failing to alter his defensive system or play his stars more minutes. Until Bud shows that he can adapt, Rivers and Philadelphia have the edge here.
VERDICT: Edge Sixers
Sixers vs. Bucks Series Prediction
This would be another amazing series between two elite teams led by their freak MVP candidates. Unlike the series against the Nets, I would give the Sixers a slight edge against the Bucks, but this would also be a very competitive series.
VERDICT: Slight edge Sixers