The Philadelphia 76ers will battle the Washington Wizards in the first round of the 2021 NBA Playoffs. This comes after Washington went 18-7 in its last 25 games to steal the eighth seed and put Russell Westbrook back in the postseason. The Sixers should have no problem ousting them.
While Washington’s recent hot streak is mildly concerning, it is only concerning in the sense that Philadelphia may not sweep the series. There is no reason to believe Washington can actually compete for six or seven games. The Wizards winning the series would be an all-time upset.
Here are five storylines to watch for as the Sixers gear up for another postseason run.
Sixers storyline to watch: Transition O vs. Transition D
The Sixers have the capacity to control the pace in this series. Ben Simmons can run a fast break better than anyone, and Philadelphia has more than enough capacity for disruption on the defensive end. Russell Westbrook is a turnover machine half the time, and the Wizards’ transition defense is a mess.
There is, however, another side to that coin. The Wizards’ transition offense is, perhaps, the team’s best attribute. When Westbrook and Bradley Beal are out in the open court, it can be difficult to stop. The Sixers’ transition defense is one of the team’s few weak points on that side of the ball.
The only way this series is remotely competitive is if Washington is able to turn the ball over and control the tempo. If the Sixers can make this a halfcourt game, or better yet, if the Sixers can turn Washington over, then the Wizards are cooked.
Sixers storyline to watch: Bench rotation
Doc Rivers has expressed remarkable confidence in his second unit all season. While that confidence has not always been reciprocated with consistent play, the second unit rounded into form over the season’s final month. Now the question is, how will Rivers adjust in the postseason?
While Rivers said he’s comfortable going 11-deep, he will not do so on a nightly basis. He may strive to keep the bench 10-deep for as long as possible, but most playoff rotations are cut down to eight or nine. The Wizards may not be good enough to force that adjustment this series, but it’s worth watching how Rivers handles his bench rotation.
Firstly, this is as good a time as any for Rivers to fully buy into staggering his rotations. There should never been five bench players on the floor at one time. Tobias Harris has been excellent when leading the bench units all season — that’s a combination Doc should embrace. The Sixers may also want to experiment more with the Ben Simmons-at-center groups, as the 6-foot-10 wunderkind simply cannot share the floor with Dwight Howard in games that matter.
If the Sixers do trim the second unit, who gets cut is an interesting conundrum. Matisse Thybulle, George Hill, and Dwight Howard feel like the only locks, though one could argue Howard is situationally impractical in a potential Eastern Conference Finals. Beyond that trio, Furkan Korkmaz or Shake Milton are on the chopping block. That doesn’t even take into consideration Tyrese Maxey, who has set the Sixers fandom ablaze over the last month.
Rivers has talked up Milton all season, but the third-year guard has been woefully inconsistent the entire campaign. Korkmaz is the Sixers’ most confident shooter, but possibly the second unit’s worst defender. Then, you factor in Thybulle’s offense, and whether or not he’s even playable with Embiid and Simmons once the Sixers arrive at a good team. Defenses will ignore him. How much time can his defense alone earn him?
Sixers storyline to watch: Embiid’s feast
In the kindest possible terms, the Sixers should not expect much resistance from the Wizards’ defense. This is a favorable matchup across the board. There is not a single individual matchup offensively that should concern if the Sixers. If Philadelphia executes, Washington will struggle to keep up.
That starts, of course, with Embiid. The Wizards are better equipped than most teams to match Embiid’s size on the block. Alex Len is a big body. Robin Lopez has battled Embiid admirably in the past. Even Daniel Gafford, the third string center, is worthy of playing time. In the inevitable event of foul trouble, Washington has extra bodies.
Despite the Wizards’ preparedness in the frontcourt, however, Embiid should have no trouble feasting. The Wizards lack size overall and are largely undisciplined. They cannot throw extra length at Embiid on double teams, and one should not count on Washington properly recovering if Embiid makes the right reads out of said double teams.
Embiid has dominated individual matchups against great defenders all season. The Wizards do not have great defenders — only Robin Lopez. If Embiid can win that matchup, which he absolutely should, then there’s not much to keep the offense from humming along.
Sixers storyline to watch: Mr. Triple-Double
Russell Westbrook has been in the headlines of late, and for good reason. He broke Oscar Robertson’s triple-double record and was a major factor (arguably even the leading factor) in Washington’s second-half surge. The Wizards are the eight seed in large part because Westbrook got hot at the right time.
When it comes to defending Westbrook, there are varying theories on the subject. Ben Simmons is pretty much the cheat code. His length and athleticism would, in this writer’s opinion, guarantee the former MVP a rough go of things in the first round. If you decide to match Simmons with Beal, then next in line is Danny Green. To that I say: sure, it probably works out.
Despite the impressive counting stats, Westbrook is not a particularly difficult player to defend. Even if you rely on Green, or even Tobias Harris, Westbrook would start even possession with a 10-foot cushion and a permanent invitation to shoot. The Sixers will have Embiid ready to meet Westbrook at the rim, and more than enough active hands to keep his passing lanes at a minimum.
Westbrook’s facilitation is probably his most lethal skill. The Sixers should not worry about Westbrook burying them as a scorer, nor is his defense going to win games. Westbrook is first and foremost a passer these days, and if the Sixers can stifle his momentum toward the rim, he will naturally have a difficult time finding rhythm.
In short: this matchup does not concern me.
Sixers storyline to watch: Beal’s hammy
If there’s any one player who is going to win Washington a game or two, it’s Bradley Beal. The 27-year-old has cemented his status as one of the NBA’s premier scorers. If it weren’t for a late Stephen Curry flourish and a bad hamstring, Beal may have led the league in scoring for a second consecutive year. He averaged 31.3 points per game on the season.
That said, Beal enters this series at less than 100 percent health due to a lingering hamstring issue. He performed admirably in the play-in tournament — 25 points in 28 minutes on 9-for-17 shooting in Thursday’s routing of Indiana — but there’s real concern over his durability.
Beal has given his heart and soul to Washington and been given very little back his entire career. He is going to play through it and play hard, even if there’s an increased risk of injury. The Sixers should not expect Beal to roll over, but by that same token, just how healthy he looks will likely determine whether this is a competitive five or six games, or a sweep.
The Sixers have several capable defenders to toss at Beal. Matisse Thybulle will get his swings in off the bench, Ben Simmons will inevitably spend some possessions there, and Danny Green will have the misfortune of starting most games on the three-time All-Star. Beal’s explosiveness and stamina is probably the indicator to watch in this series.