The Philadelphia 76ers have a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Washington Wizards. So far, the team has given the fanbase little reason to panic. The offense looks smooth, the defense has awed, and the Sixers’ core trio has started the postseason on a high note. It’s not much of an accomplishment — the Wizards are not that good and match up poorly across the board — but still, the Sixers are in a good place.
Barring a miracle or a tragedy, the Sixers will win this series and move to the second round. In the second round, the Sixers will face either New York or Atlanta. They will again be heavy favorites. If Philadelphia can get to the conference finals, as they’re largely expected to do, then things get tricky.
It is looking ahead to future matchups that provides reason for concern about Dwight Howard.
The Sixers need to survive the non-Joel Embiid minutes. Can Dwight Howard help them against good teams?
The 35-year-old Howard has struggled in the Sixers’ first two postseason games, averaging 3.0 points and 7.5 rebounds on only 42.9 percent shooting in 17.1 minutes per game. It doesn’t matter much against Washington, since Philly has sizable advantages elsewhere, but it does raise some alarm about the future.
Howard struggles to defend in space and can get run off the floor by up-tempo teams. If the Sixers happen to face the Hawks in round two, then that’s another up-tempo team — only one built much better than Washington, and with a much more versatile assembly of frontcourt players.
If the Hawks were to match Clint Capela to Joel Embiid, then Howard would need to survive the likes of John Collins and Danilo Gallinari. The Knicks are more manageable, but even so, it’s fair to question if an interior-oriented center of Howard’s age and skill set can truly hold up in the postseason.
No team understands the importance of a good backup center more than Philadelphia, largely because Philadelphia has struggled to find them of late. Howard is possibly the best backup of Joel Embiid’s career, but if he gets played off the floor by better teams with stretch fives — looking at you, Brooklyn/Milwaukee — then the Sixers will need a Plan B.
That Plan B cannot, should not, and shall not be Mike Scott. Ben Simmons has played “small ball center” fleetingly in the past, but with limited success and not much commitment from the coaching staff. The options are limited, and the Sixers would be wise to start exploring them, at least in practice, if/when the Wizards are properly dispatched.
Howard is more matchup dependent than his reputation would suggest. He can still use his size to overpower undersized defenses in the middle, but it comes with certain consequences on defense — consequences that are exploited tenfold in the playoffs, when opposing teams will game plan specifically for Howard’s deficiencies.
The Nets are the ultimate example. Howard can probably give Blake Griffin or Jeff Green the business offensively, but Howard’s offense is best in limited doses. On defense, he would have to face the Nets’ ever-revolving wheel of versatile, 3-point happy frontcourt pieces. If the Sixers face the Nets, as many have prophesied, I struggle to see Howard playing positive-impact basketball.
That is something Doc Rivers and company will need to prepare for in the likely event that Philadelphia advances past Washington and into more dangerous territory. Losing the non-Embiid minutes, however sparse, can be a killer. Ask Greg Monroe.