Sixers: Atlanta’s going to be a bigger problem than you think

Having completed their gentleman’s sweep of the Washington Wizards, the Philadelphia 76ers have earned some much needed rest for Joel Embiid and his injured knee before beginning their second round against the Atlanta Hawks.  Most of this season has been spent trying to gain home court advantage so that the Sixers could coast to the Eastern Conference Finals while the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets battle tooth and nail on the other side.

Optimally, the 76ers would be rested and healthy after easily dispatching their opponent while the Nets-Bucks winner would be physically and emotionally drained after a long, heated war.  But with or without a healthy Embiid, the Sixers fanbase should be prepared for something different.

The Sixers will need to bring their A-game against one of the NBA’s hottest teams.

The national media has proclaimed the East to be a three-horse race all season but a funny thing happened on the way to the playoffs.  After starting 14- 20 and struggling all season with both COVID issues and lingering injuries, the Atlanta Hawks made a coaching change to go to Nate McMillan and began a step by step climb up the standings.  Suddenly this team that had always been full of potential and untapped talent began playing as well as anyone in the NBA.

From March 1 to the end of the season, the Atlanta Hawks went 27-11, the same record as the Sixers, and the second-best record in basketball behind only Phoenix and Denver (tied at 29- 10) and better than both Brooklyn and Milwaukee.  McMillan has always been a great defensive coach but he also improved the offense, adding a series of screens and cuts to go with their snipers on the perimeter.

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There are a number of reasons for concern.  The Hawks are young, big, talented, deep, well-coached and solid at every position.  They have a lot of young talent and most people believed that they could contend in two years, but McMillan has accelerated that process. The injury issues that plagued them all year have pressed so many players into larger roles that they all wound up growing together, and now when they go to the bench there is very little drop off.

Trae Young can’t guard his own shadow but relentlessly drives the offense and everyone else is either a solid defender or at least working hard on D.  They have elite shooters in Young, Kevin Huerter, and stud scorer Bogdan Bogdanovic.  They have big men who can score inside and out with John Collins and Danillo Gallinari, and high level role players in De’Andre Hunter, Lou Williams, Solomon Hill, and Tony Snell.

The key to this series, and the reason it will probably be a struggle, will be the play in the middle.  No one can stop Joel Embiid with the way that he has played this year, but there are maybe two or three players in the league who can slow him down and make his life difficult.  The Hawks possess one of those men in Clint Capela.  Capela is strong, long, smart, disciplined, and goes to the glass with reckless abandon.

They have played against one another eight times and Capela has proven that he can handle Embiid one on one, with no need for a double team.  That makes everyone else’s life harder and forces other Sixers to step up.  Fans should be prepared to see Embiid post numbers in the range of 24 points, 10 rebounds per game, instead of the 30 and 12 that we have come to expect.  Capela is probably the best big defender and rebounder in the East not named Joel Embiid.

Both teams have changed so much this season that it is hard to imagine exactly how the individual matchups will look.  In their first pairing in January, the Sixers were missing four major rotation players and the Hawks dispatched them with ease.  When they met again for a back to back set at the end of April the Hawks were missing several of their best players and the Sixers destroyed them.  This will be the first time that these teams get a good look at each other at full strength.

There are a number of fascinating plot points to watch in what should be a dramatic and highly entertaining series.  These are two exciting and hungry young teams slamming into each other at full speed and the end result should be worth the price of admission.   The series may hinge on the answers to some of the following questions:

Who’s strong suit has the advantage, the Hawks O or the Sixers D?  How are Joel’s knee and back? With Embiid slowed, who steps up their scoring for the 76ers?  Can Embiid get Capela in foul trouble?  How much will the Sixers utilize Matisse Thybulle against Trae Young?  Will the Sixers be able to “hunt” mismatches against Young? Which bench outplays the other?  Which coach makes the most crucial changes from game to game or quarter to quarter?

Make no mistake, the Sixers will and should be the favorite in this series, and it would be crushing to lose to Atlanta.  The fanbase should just be prepared to temper their expectations. Do not make the mistake of thinking that this series will be short or easy and don’t think that it reflects poorly on the Sixers if they struggle.  The Hawks really are good and worthy of your respect. When this series goes six or possibly even seven demanding games,  there is no need to panic.

A difficult series with the Hawks does not affect their chances of winning against the Bucks or Nets.  The truest measure of how far this team will go will always lie with the health of Joel Embiid. Keep calm and don’t stress if Philadelphia is pressed in this second round.  In the end it may wind up being the best thing for keeping the Sixers razor sharp when they finally do advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.