Sixers: 5 important factors in Game 7 vs. Hawks

Sunday night, the Philadelphia 76ers will host the Atlanta Hawks in a critical Game 7. That game may very well determine the Sixers’ future. A loss, and Doc Rivers’ seat gets warm, Daryl Morey gets aggressive, and Ben Simmons‘ future is thoroughly in doubt. A win, and the Sixers get to the conference finals, accomplish a seasons-long milestone, and fight the winner of Brooklyn/Milwaukee as underdogs.

The Sixers have been the better team for much of this series, and yet, two egregious collapses left the Hawks with a chance to close things out in Game 6. The Sixers survived a Trae Young tidal wave, executed down the stretch, and were cosmically blessed with a strong night from Tyrese Maxey. Now, the final venue is a raucous Wells Fargo Center.

Few things are more stressful than a Sixers game, much less a Sixers Game 7 not long removed from complete despair and contempt. The Sixers have a lot to prove on Sunday. It’s win or go home — fold or fight.

Important factors in Sixers-Hawks Game 7: Curry’s crusade

So far this series, Seth Curry is averaging 21.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.0 assists. He has hit 61.5 percent of his field goal attempts, and shot 59.6 percent on 7.8 attempts per game from 3-point range. That is comically absurd, yet still in line with Curry’s status as the most efficient spot-up shooter Mother Earth has to offer.

If Curry can continue to look like Philadelphia’s second-best player, the offense is in a good spot. He has single-handedly bolstered the Sixers’ 3-point attack in this series, and his sustained aggressiveness makes it much harder for Atlanta to focus its energies on Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris.

The Sixers don’t need another 36-point game from Curry, though that would be nice. They simply need him to keep on keeping on. Curry was a big part of weathering the storm in Game 6. His explosion early in the third quarter is perhaps the reason we have a Game 7 to write about. Big shots in big moments has been Curry’s trademark all series. If that continues, the Sixers should like their chances.

Important factors in Sixers-Hawks Game 7: Injuries

Obviously, for the Sixers, Danny Green will not play. His absence has stung, even if the Hawks are well-equipped to exploit his weaknesses. Joel Embiid is also part of this category. He’s playing on a torn meniscus, which means we have no clue of how sore or painful his knee is day-to-day. If his joints decide to flare up in Game 7, the Sixers could have a problem.

On Atlanta’s end, Bogdan Bogdanovic left Friday’s game with “right knee soreness” and did not return. Some would argue he has been Atlanta’s second-best player this season. His lights-out shooting and ancillary playmaking are essential to the Hawks’ offensive dynamism. If he were to miss time, it would rid the Hawks of one of only seven players who played double-digit minutes on Friday.

Bogey is a tremendous talent, and his second-half surge this season played a big part in the Hawks’ turnaround. Atlanta’s 3-point shooting has wavered all series, but on most nights, Bogdanovic is a healthy source of attempts and makes. If he were to miss Game 7 — and he only would if it’s a severe injury — it would mark a massive blow to Atlanta’s rotation.

Here’s to hoping for a full-strength battle (or as close to it as possible) Sunday night.

Important factors in Sixers-Hawks Game 7: Doc’s rotations

Doc Rivers went 10-deep on Friday. Six Hawks played 20+ minutes. Seven Sixers play 20+ minutes. Lou Williams and Matisse Thybulle logged roughly 11 minutes each, while Dwight Howard and Onyeka Okongwu were matched as backup centers for just under 10 minutes each.

As has been the case all series, Doc Rivers’ rotation will go a long way in determining the final outcome in Game 7. He has fallen into a pattern of unloading the bench for a pivotal stretch in the first half, only to trim the rotation and ride the hot hands (mostly) in the second half. Those first-half test drives should end on Sunday.

Rivers should only go eight deep, if that. He needs to put his best cards on the table and ride them hard. Every starter, minus Furkan Korkmaz, should log 40+ minutes if need be. Tyrese Maxey, Matisse Thybulle, and George Hill (I know, I know) are the only reserves who should touch the floor. Shake Milton and Dwight Howard have been actively harmful all series, save for Shake’s miracle work in Game 2. They cannot touch the floor. The Sixers know as well as any team that five minutes of bad basketball can swing a game.

If Rivers were to follow my advice above (and he probably won’t), that would slot Ben Simmons as the “backup center” when Embiid sits. That is the right decision, recent Simmons hullabaloo aside. Go small, push the pace, and try to bury the Hawks under a pile of transition buckets and 3s.

No more using one starter and four bench pieces. At least two starters should share the floor at all times. Preferably not Korkmaz and Curry. The Sixers need to treat this like the end of the road, because it may very well be. There’s no excuse not to ride the starters hard. There’s no excuse not to give Tyrese Maxey another chance to elevate the offense and close the game. If Ben Simmons no-shows, Doc should do what he did in Game 6 — bench him.

This needs to be a strong tactical game from Rivers. A lot is riding on it.

Important factors in Sixers-Hawks Game 7: Ben Simmons

Contempt has festered within the Sixers fanbase for Ben Simmons and his play over the last three games. In Game 5, Simmons took only four shots and went 4-for-14 from the charity stripe as Philadelphia gave up a 26-point lead. In Game 6, an elimination game with plenty of bulletin board material at his disposal, Simmons scored six points on 2-for-6 shooting.

Simmons’ impact has long extended well outside the box score. He does not need to drop 30 to positively impact the game. What he does need, however, is a mean streak. A level of aggressiveness that has been absent all series. The Hawks do not have great individual defenders to combat Simmons, and yet he is totally useless for long stretches of play. It’s unacceptable.

Atlanta has successfully deployed the Hack-a-Ben strategy, which has thus far sent Simmons spiraling. Not only is he struggling from the line, but he’s letting those struggles percolate into the rest of his game. Simmons won’t even touch the ball in the fourth quarter because he’s scared of the charity stripe. It’s hard to win crunch time playing 4-on-5.

At some point, Simmons needs to find the next gear. He’s still a great player, and someone who can help the Sixers in Game 7. His defense on Trae Young is critical, while his fit as a point center surrounded by shooters (if Doc takes my rotation advice) could breed interesting new wrinkles offensively when Embiid is out of the game.

Rivers only played Simmons 25 minutes in Game 6. Some of that was foul trouble, but he also benched the All-Star for much of the fourth quarter. When Simmons checked back in with under two minutes, he was predictably reluctant to touch the ball. If the current trends continue, Rivers may need to scratch Simmons out of the fourth quarter gameplan once more.

Important factors in Sixers-Hawks Game 7: Embiid’s battery level

Joel Embiid has been a dominant force all postseason, even on a torn meniscus. That said, his offense has wavered slightly over the last week. In Game 4, he shot 0-for-12 in the second half and had no lift off that bad knee. In Game 5, he scored 37 points, but went cold in the fourth quarter. He was again off-kilter in Game 6, scoring 22 points on 24 shots.

There is some level of concern with respect to Embiid’s fatigue level. That was why the Sixers did not want this series to linger. Even if Game 7 goes Philadelphia’s way, it’s fair to wonder whether Embiid can hold up for another seven-game series against an even better team. That knee is clearly problematic, and Embiid is Embiid. He gets tired without torn ligaments.

So, the question is simple: what version of Joel Embiid do the Sixers get in Game 7. I tend to agree with his personal assessment — he can’t get much worse offensively. In front of the home crowd, with his first conference finals berth on the line, Embiid will probably look better than previous games would suggest. That said, if the game is physical as one would expect, and the Hawks make it a tight battle down the stretch, Embiid’s productivity in crunch time is a storyline to watch.

All season, Embiid has been the wind behind Philadelphia’s sails. If he doesn’t have it, then Atlanta will probably win the game. Tobias Harris and Seth Curry can do a lot, and Ben Simmons can’t get much worse, but this is Embiid’s team. They will need him on Sunday.