Sixers: Paul Reed and the virtue of chaos

The NBA slept on Paul Reed from the beginning. He was the 58th overall pick in 2020, left in the bargain bin for Daryl Morey and a savvy Sixers front office. After three years at DePaul, he was a 21-year-old billed as a “project,” the enigmatic term used to describe players who don’t fully grasp the game of basketball — or who we as viewers don’t fully grasp as players.

Reed was hard to quantify, hard to understand. Too old, too raw. Not quite a four, not quite a five. We questioned his role. His fit. His ability to one day fit. To quote Kevin O’Connor and The Ringer’s NBA Draft Guide:

"“Erratic decision-maker… Lacks crispness as a ball handler… Takes too many risks defensively… Lean frame… The flare can work for him, but he needs to calculate when to take risks and when to make the safe play.”"

In short, Reed was a flashy, weird, sometimes erratic, sometimes fantastic college player who did not fit the standard mold of an NBA role player. He did too much, but at the same time, could do a lot. His 3-point shot was rigid and ugly, but it also went in. He went for the big play too often, but conversely, he made a lot of big plays. He took too many risks defensively, but averaged 3.2 blocks per 40 minutes.

Paul Reed is an agent of chaos. He is hard to predict game-to-game. He has moments good and bad, and more often than not, his performance lands somewhere in between. He’s not a clean fit in Philly, or really anywhere, but he’s also more talented than half the first-round picks from 2020. He has a lot to figure out, and the puzzle is far from finished, but if it ever comes together, Reed could be the prize of Daryl Morey’s Sixers tenure.

The Sixers struck gold with Paul Reed, but how soon — and how significantly — can he contribute to winning.

Paul Reed is too good for Summer League. He’s too good for the G-League, where he won MVP and Rookie of the Year in one fell swoop. And yet, he’s also not part of the Sixers’ rotation. Not yet, anyway. He’s stuck in the precarious position of being a young and talented player on an old(er) and competitive team. Doc Rivers is a stubborn and uninventive coach who has historically done the bare minimum as far as experimentation and in-season adjustment.

There is reason to believe Rivers will not give Reed the chance to out-play the likes of Andre Drummond, who has two All-Star appearances under his belt and a wealth of NBA clout. There is also reason to believe Rivers will not give Reed the chance to out-play Georges Niang, an established veteran who can shoot the lights out.

That is fair on the surface, as both Drummond and Niang are accomplished players. Also, the fit is a real concern. Reed does not shoot a high volume of 3s, and with Joel Embiid as the heart of Philly’s rotation, there’s only so much room for a 6-foot-9 big who doesn’t really space the floor but who also probably shouldn’t spend time as the only big on the floor.

Reed does not have a clear path to minutes, and he does not complement the Sixers’ best player. And yet, it’s hard not to have confidence in his long-term trajectory. He seems too talented, too uniquely gifted to fail. He breeds chaos, and from that chaos comes production.

In 31.5 minutes per game with the Blue Coats last season, Reed averaged 22.3 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. He also tallied 1.9 blocks and 1.8 steals, with a 44.4 percent success rate on 3.6 three-point attempts per game.

Equal parts finesse and force, Reed can bludgeon a team to death. He just out-competes everyone. He wasn’t necessarily the most “skilled” big in the G-League, but he was the most ambitious. He took those “rigid, ugly” 3s and made them. He dribbled in circles, and sometimes it led nowhere, but oftentimes, it led to him to either out-muscling or out-maneuvering his opponent. He’s a slick and slender athlete, but he crashes the boards hard, takes contact like a champ, and never stops moving his hands on defense.

Reed makes a point to do everything he possibly can when he’s on the floor. There are times — especially at the NBA level — where he would benefit from more poise and patience, but that comes with experience. Reed is still young (21 isn’t old), and he needs to understand the full extent of what he can do before he’s ready to start adjusting to what he can’t do. That’s a learning curve the Sixers can gladly accept.

Once he begins to get more reps in the NBA, Reed will have fewer opportunities to freelance and explore the boundaries of an offensive possession. He will also, however, have more space to operate, using his blend of length, quickness, and sheer force of will to attack the basket and find fissures in the middle of a defense. He’s not a great passer, but he’s a willing passer. When he beats a man off the dribble, or he faces up at the elbow, he’s brave enough to thread the needle to a cutting teammate, or whip a skip pass over top to the open shooter.

His 2.3-to-2.6 assist-to-turnover ratio in the G-League is not great. There are moments where Reed dribbles into nowhere, and he takes a bad shot or fumbles away a possession. That is not inherently becoming of a “role player.” And yet, for a prospect like Reed to play as hard as he does and to take the chances he does is rare. Most second-round picks don’t have Reed’s ceiling because they aren’t willing to reach as high. To have to reign in the 58th overall pick — to tell him he’s going too far — is a rare and beautiful problem to have.

All this, and only passive comments have been made about his defense. That is where Reed is truly special. Defense is the reason Reed, sooner than later, will crack the Sixers’ rotation. It’s not just that he blocks shots or picks pockets. It again comes down to chaos, and Reed’s try-hard nature that allows him to enforce his will on a game.

Reed was the G-League’s most prolific rebounder, and he just registered the second 20-point, 20-rebound performance in Summer League history on Sunday. He’s only 6-foot-9. He’s only 210 pounds. But, on the defensive (and offensive) glass, Reed vacuums up everything within reach of his 7-foot-2 wingspan. He jumps over and around box outs. He will get out-worked for position, and somehow still come down with the board.

In the steals department, Reed has clearly taken notes from Matisse Thybulle. It’s all about activity. He wants to take the ball every time, and he tries his damnedest to take it. He does a great job of poking around without fouling. He gets in the offensive player’s grill and initiates contact, but not enough to get whistled every time down the floor. In passing lanes, Reed has the quickness and the awareness to turn his “gambles” into transition opportunities. His athleticism and instincts, combined with insatiable effort, leaves him quite firmly “out the mud.”

In Reed, the Sixers have a player who can change the tenor of a game with his defensive activity. He can muck up possessions. He can make guys uncomfortable, whether it’s getting physical in the post or hounding them on the perimeter. He swings his 7-foot-2 wingspan around with near reckless abandon, and will never not go the extra mile in terms of hustle.

There is a virtue to chaos. There is a virtue to purposeful chaos. Reed wants to make you work on both ends. He wants to pummel the defense, then tank the opposing offense. He wants to overwhelm you and overpower you and out-tough you and make you tired. He wants to lead the NBA in rebounding one day, and I would not count him out.

He has a ways to go. Reed is not a finished product. But count me among the increasingly large crowd of people who believe he will put the pieces together. Who believe the pieces, when put together, form the foundation of a winning NBA player. He’s going to outperform a lot of the first-round picks from his draft, and could go as far as outperforming many of the lottery picks.