Predicting the NBA Eastern Conference standings: Miami Heat
CEILING: Top-3 seed, NBA champions
FLOOR: 6-seed, first round exit
The Heat are difficult than most teams to fully wrap one’s head around. Jimmy Butler wasn’t very good in the playoffs. How much of that is the decline of age, how much of it is circumstantial due to Milwaukee’s stifling defense? In the regular season, when healthy, Butler looked every bit a top-15 player.
Then, you get to Bam Adebayo, a profoundly great two-way player who seemed to take a step back last season, not a step forward. Strange, considering his age. Then you factor in Kyle Lowry, a ceiling-raising move, but at the same time, it’s the acquisition of a 6-foot, 35-year-old guard. Then, you have Victor Oladipo, who signed a minimum contract and may or may not even stay on the floor. He was an All-Star a couple years ago, but who the heck can say with certainty how he will look?
Short story short, the Heat have a lot of potential for variance. They could look like a genuine threat to Brooklyn and Milwaukee atop the East. They could look similar to last season — good, but little more than first round fodder for the conference elites.
If you take a more optimistic view and (again) chalk up some of last season’s weirdness to COVID, it’s hard to deny Miami’s combination of talent, fit, culture, and coaching. The roster is well balanced, Butler is a championship-level star, and Erik Spoelstra is arguably the best coach in the NBA. The Heat are the real deal.