Should the Sixers reconsider Damian Lillard?

Since the Sixers lost their playoff matchup with the Atlanta Hawks, or possibly since the infamous “pass, not dunk”, it has been known to everyone that the Philadelphia 76ers were shopping Ben Simmons.  The experiment to pair him with Joel Embiid had failed and it was time to move in a new direction.  The first name to float through the internet as a potential trade partner was Damian Lillard, and those whispers have only heated up with the recent struggles in Portland.  But is it time for the Sixers to reconsider their interest in Dame?

Since his arrival Daryl Morey has made several nice moves to surround Embiid with sharpshooters who were also crafty players, like Danny Green, Seth Curry, and Georges Niang.   “The Process” nay-sayers have always claimed that the best way to have success with Joel Embiid was to surround him with floor-spacing snipers and let him pound it inside, which was why the non-shooting Simmons would need to go.  Morey and the team finally seemed to be listening to those voices and looking for a trade that would not only yield a terrific player but also one who would be the best possible pairing with Embiid.

Damian Lillard has a truly sensational resume.  He is considered one of the top 75 NBA players of all time, was rookie of the year in 2013, is a six time All-Star, has been on the All-NBA team six times, including first team in 2018.  He has also been in consideration for the league MVP award the last two seasons and is often credited with carrying an ill-fitting Blazers team beyond where their mediocre talent level should be.

Lillard’s offensive skills are prodigious and eye-popping.  He has a high basketball I.Q., reads a defense as well as any point guard in the league, and has been the most dangerous perimeter shooter in the league not named Klay, Steph, or Harden over the last five years.  He passes and sees the floor as well as Simmons, only in a package that is happy to shoot when given any space, and is a 90% free throw shooter and almost a 40 percent 3-point shooter.  As a ball-handling closer, the Sixers current top priority, there has been no one better.  His exploits in the clutch have earned their own nickname, “Dame Time”.  No one is more feared in the final minutes of a close game.  But sometimes if it sounds too good to be true, it just might be.

The Sixers should rethink their interest in Damian Lillard.

Make no mistake, I am not suggesting that the Sixers absolutely, positively, should not go get Lillard if he becomes available.  I’m simply saying let’s pump the brakes on the “perfect fit” talk and think this through.  The decision to add Damian Lillard is a much more difficult one today than it was just a few weeks ago.

For one thing, the NBA is not the NFL.  Everyone has to be able to play both sides of the ball, not just offense.  Dame’s running mate in Portland, CJ McCollum, is often criticized as a potential trade partner for the Sixers because he is a poor defender.  Well make no mistake, Lillard is a much worse one.  For all of McCollum’s struggles the effort is at least consistently there on the defensive side.  CJ’s athletic and physical limitations, as well as poor technique and footwork, prevent him from ever being great on defense, but at least he tries.  Lillard plays matador D at best and rarely seems to care about stopping the ball or his man.  His defensive role model seems to be James Harden.

The 76ers have built their identity around team defense, starting with Joel in the middle. They have several rotation players like Furkan Korkmaz and Seth Curry who are not good defenders but they have bought into the team concepts and work hard to keep their man in front of them.  Despite their shortcomings, the effort is there. Would the addition of a highly respected team leader who refuses to play defense disrupt what the team is trying to do, divide the locker room, or have a negative impact on the development of young talent?  It might be a stretch to ask those questions of a guy who was voted “NBA teammate of the year” in 2021 but ask yourself who improved as a defender on any Damian Lillard team?  What young talent has grown around Lillard?  Even promising young guard Anfernee Simons does not seem particularly inclined to play any defense.

For that matter, how positive are we that Lillard is the kind of leader who can bring a Championship to Philadelphia? Yes, the offensive pairing with Joel seems flawless, but for all of his heroic exploits in crunch time, how did Portland do in the playoffs?  That is a tough thing to pin on Lillard also, because he could only play with the talent the team provided, but he never seemed to elevate his team or make anyone else besides himself better. His career record in playoff games is 22-39, and the Blazers have been bounced from the playoffs in the first round in four of the last five years. That all may mean nothing, but it still has to be considered.

The next thing to think about is his health.  Damian is currently out with lower abdominal tendinopathy, which is a strain of the muscle that runs from your abs to just above the groin.  This has been an issue for him since the end of last season and there was talk that perhaps he should have a surgical procedure over the summer but instead he opted to play in the Olympics.  We all watched him play poorly there, and he looked like a shell of himself.  Even starting this year he has struggled shooting the ball and all of his shooting and scoring numbers are way down.

More obviously, Lillard has failed the “eye test” and just looks way off when watching him shoot and play.  The guy that the Sixers wanted from the past may no longer be that same guy. The larger concern is that this may be something he struggles with for the rest of his career.  He suffered a fairly serious groin injury two years ago and the reports make it sound like the two injuries could possibly be connected.  Professional sports is an injury-risk business, but we already are in a committed relationship with one Superstar who is a big injury risk and cannot play full  seasons, do the Sixers want to pin all of their hopes on two guys like that?

Which leads to the last concern about Lillard, which is his contract.  He is currently on a well-deserved Supermax through 2023-24 with a player option of $48,787,676 for 2024-25, so let’s just assume he accepts that.  Being locked up by any team for the next 3 – 4 years is one of the reasons why he is so attractive, but now, according to ESPN analyst Adrian Wojnarowski, his representation has approached the Trail Blazers stating that they would like a two year $107 million dollar contract extension (which can be signed at the end of this season). That would mean paying Lillard $55 million at age 36, which is well into the decline of most players.

These talks may make Portland more inclined to move Dame because they seem to be considering a rebuild and he would fetch them a handsome price, but would other teams who are considering trading for him, like the Sixers, be willing to take on a contract that would become an instant untradeable albatross?  Morey is crazy, but is he that crazy?  Proponents of doing this deal anyway would state that a 2-3 year window of Championship contention, followed by the 2-3 years of potential lottery team play (because of an aging Dame and his mammoth contract) is a risk worth taking.  And that may well be true, but like his defense and health, these are risks that  the team, media, and fanbase need to be prepared to take.

As far as the Philadelphia 76ers are concerned the metrics surrounding this deal should have changed quite a bit since the season began as well.  The common thinking among the media has always been that any trade of Ben Simmons for Damian Lillard would probably have to include Tyrese Maxey, Matisse Thybulle, and perhaps a draft pick or two.  I would have made that deal in September but now that feels like way, way too much in light of how these two are playing.  Thybulle still needs to improve his ball handling and outside shooting but he remains a uniquely gifted, game changing defender who has been called the best perimeter defender in the NBA.  Maxey may not be the All-Star that fans were clamoring for a few weeks ago but he is still a serious change of pace, microwave scorer in the Lou Williams mold who should contend for sixth man of the year throughout his career.  These are serious assets and should not be considered throw-ins to any deal, ever.  Under no circumstances should the Sixers include both of these young talents in this deal.

Daryl Morey and the 76ers have been very smart to this point being patient and trying to wait for a deal that best suits this team. Settling for a less than ideal move would set this team back years, possibly decades.  But the NBA seems to fluctuate on a daily basis and the options that previously seemed perfect may not be now.  There are a lot of really good players out there who may be a better fit for this team. Perhaps Damian Lillard is the Superstar that Philadelphia needs to pair with Joel Embiid to lead the Sixers over the hump and into the promised land.  But I hope that they are not blinded by past highlights and are seriously weighing all of the potential cons that come with Lillard, because stars with question marks can lose their luster very quickly.