The Sixers are expected to pursue James Harden in the offseason, with the Ben Simmons trade saga now inextricably linked to Brooklyn’s potentially disgruntled superstar. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and the Harden smoke is equivalent to the smoke found in your local Hookah lounge. It’s time to gear up for another few months of Harden speculation in Philadelphia.
That being said, what factors should fans be wary of when diving into the murky waters of James Harden trade/free agency speculation? We’ve already been through one stretch of Harden hopefulness, only for him to end up in Brooklyn. Do the Sixers actually have a chance here.
Let’s break it down.
Important factors in Sixers’ potential James Harden pursuit: Contract
James Harden has a player option for $47.4 million next season. He will probably decline and subsequently enter free agency in search of an even more lucrative long-term contract. The Nets can offer the most money and the longest contract (five years, opposed to four years).
The Sixers can, however, offer a substantial amount: four years, $200.1 million, with one major complication. The Sixers can’t actually offer that unless they clear the requisite cap space. According to The Athletic’s Shams Charania, Philadelphia would need to shed roughly $61-65 million to pay Harden outright. Otherwise, it would require a sign-and-trade, which means convincing Brooklyn to help facilitate Harden’s departure to a division rival.
Another possible (if not entirely likely) iteration would be Harden picking up his player option, then getting traded to Philadelphia with one year on his deal. That would prevent Philadelphia from being hard-capped, but given his age and injury history, one has to expect Harden will want the security of four or five years at maximum money.
Important factors in Sixers’ potential James Harden pursuit: Price
Beyond the actual monetary price (again, $200.1 million if the Sixers can offload Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris without taking back extra salary…), the Sixers will have to give up trade assets to acquire Harden if he does decide Philly is the place for him. The key is any such trade, of course, is Ben Simmons.
It feels less likely by the day that Simmons will get dealt at the Feb. 10 trade deadline, with Daryl Morey and the Sixers’ front office clearly focused on the summer (and Harden). That being said, Simmons would form the foundation of any Harden sign-and-trade package. If Simmons does get swapped for the likes of Tyrese Haliburton or John Collins, then that player would probably serve as the trade centerpiece (along with whatever picks/young talent comes back too).
Morey already offered Simmons, Matisse Thybulle, and two first-round picks for Harden last season. One has to expect he’s willing to pay a similar price in the summer, even with Harden’s age and health becoming more of a hot-button topic. He’s still one of the 10 best players on the planet, and if the Sixers don’t spend, other teams would gladly throw the kitchen sink at Harden to get him out of Brooklyn.
But why would Morey have to spend so much in a sign-and-trade, the Nets won’t have leverage? On the surface, yes — Brooklyn will not have much leverage if Harden makes a firm commitment to leave. The Sixers could hypothetically get away with Simmons and the extra salary to match (probably Danny Green’s $10 million team option). That said, the Nets will have natural hesitance to facilitate Harden’s departure to an opponent in the same conference, not to mention the same division. If the Nets are going to help pair Joel Embiid and James Harden, the Sixers will have to make it worth their while. That’s where names like Thybulle, Seth Curry, and even Tyrese Maxey enter the conversation.
Harden is 32 years old and has performed well below his normal standards this season. However, he’s still averaging 22.7 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 10.1 assists, which places him above of all but a handful of NBA players. Even a declining Harden could help steer Embiid and company to a championship. The Sixers have a responsibility to maximize Embiid’s prime, and no one of comparable talent is expected to be even remotely attainable in the near future. Harden is one of the best offensive guards in NBA history.
Important factors in Sixers’ potential James Harden pursuit: Fit
Does Harden actually work with Embiid? Yes. Yes he does, yes he would, yes of course. If you have the chance to pair top-10 players, it’s generally smart to do so. Harden and Embiid are two of the most dominant individual offensive talents ever. Embiid’s per-minute scoring stacks up with anyone historically, and Harden spent several seasons carrying Houston on his shoulders to an unprecedented degree.
Embiid and Harden are probably the most prolific foul-drawers in the NBA, even if Harden’s penetration has tapered off somewhat this season. They would compromise defenses at every level. Embiid is no longer just posting up. He’s bringing the ball up the floor, working out of pick-and-rolls, facilitating from the elbow. It would take time for them to find a rhythm, but neither Embiid nor Harden have many weaknesses right now. It would be hard to make it not work.
No general manager in the NBA tailors his rosters to his stars better than Daryl Morey. He built Houston into a juggernaut precisely because he constructed every piece of Houston’s roster around Harden’s unique skill set. He has done a similarly strong job in Philadelphia, even if he was dealt a bad hand by the previous managerial regime. He has littered the roster with shooters to complement Embiid, and guess what: Harden, Embiid, plus shooters would work mighty fine. Seth Curry, Danny Green, Georges Niang, Furkan Korkmaz — all those guys would feast off Embiid and Harden’s dual playmaking threat.
The Sixers would hopefully have two sources of elite dribble penetration in Harden and Tyrese Maxey, along with Embiid’s all-world dominance on the offensive and defensive end. Doc Rivers, if he’s still the head coach, would simply have to lean into the isolation talent of his two stars, stagger his rotations, and let two Hall of Fame talents cook. Of course James Harden and Joel Embiid would fit together.
There’s also the fit off the court. Harden is good friends with Morey and Sixers co-owner Michael Rubin. Harden and Morey’s working relationship ran strong for eight years in Houston, and it was Morey’s departure (in part) that brought about Harden’s trade demand and the end of Houston’s run atop the West. Embiid has developed strong chemistry with Morey and the front office too. It would be nice for management and the Sixers’ two superstars to have such a strong rapport. We have seen previous Sixers GMs and stars (Jimmy Butler) not get along quite so swimmingly.
It is far too early to say Harden will join the Sixers with any confidence. In fact, one has to expect Brooklyn is the running favorite to keep him, just based on the immediate contending status of any team rostering Kevin Durant, James Harden, and (even part-time) Kyrie Irving. But, the smoke is real, and the Sixers with both Harden and Embiid would equally capable of winning the chip. It’s an exciting thought.