Last time ESPN did its MVP straw poll, Joel Embiid held a narrow lead for No. 1 in the league’s Most Valuable Player race. Now, with only a couple weeks left in the regular season, the latest straw poll from Tim Bontemps tells a different story.
Bontemps polled 100 media members to gauge the current state of the MVP race. Nikola Jokic received 62 first-place votes and tallied 860 points, while Embiid garnered only 29 first-place votes and tallied 719 points.
"“There is still more uncertainty remaining in this race than there usually is at this time of the year. Many voters stressed how tough it was for them to choose which way to go, both among the positioning of top-three finishers and fourth and fifth places.”"
Is Sixers’ Joel Embiid losing momentum in the 2022 MVP race?
While the ESPN straw poll is far from a definitive ballot, and there’s still plenty of reason to believe Embiid could win MVP, it does feel like the tides are turning. Gone are the days where Jokic was the clear runner-up. His statistical case is virtually unimpeachable, and if the Nuggets manage a strong finish to the regular season, it will be difficult for voters to ignore the Joker’s historic across-the-board production.
Embiid, meanwhile, is still the top scorer on the potential No. 1 seed. If the Sixers rack up some wins here and end up the one-seed despite all the drama surrounding the franchise, then some voters might turn back toward Embiid. If the Sixers are in first place and the Nuggets are in sixth or seventh place, that could cause folks to reconsider Embiid.
Lost in the shuffle, unfortunately, is Giannis Antetokounmpo, who received the other nine first-place votes in ESPN’s poll but feels like a distant third place. His statistical case is just as strong as (if not stronger than) Embiid’s and the Bucks are neck-and-neck with Philadelphia in the standings. Antetokounmpo will top several Defensive Player of the Year ballots, he is averaging more rebounds and assists than Embiid, and that probably won’t matter. It’s a two-horse race, with voters picking between the NBA’s top two centers.
In the end, all three are deserving candidates. Philly fans who paint Embiid as the runaway favorite are being disingenuous, as are Denver fans spinning the same yarn in Jokic’s favor. Both have credible cases, and neither’s case is half as fallible as the opposing fanbase would have you believe.
For the season, Embiid is averaging 29.9 points, 11.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.4 blocks on .489/.364/.816 shooting splits. Jokic is averaging 26.3 points, 13.6 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 1.4 steals, and 0.9 block on .576/.345/.811 shooting splits. Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.9 points, 11.6 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.5 blocks on .552/.301/.722 shooting splits.
With very few games left to stymie Jokic’s momentum, Embiid no longer feels like the running favorite nationally. MVP has long been a difficult award to define, and each voter has his or her own set of criteria. In the end, it’s impossible to know how exactly the vote will fall. It will be close, and no matter the result, one fanbase will be vocal in its outrage. That much is certain.