Sixers series predictions for first round matchup vs. Raptors

The 4-seed Philadelphia 76ers will host the 5-seed Toronto Raptors in the first round of the 2022 NBA playoffs. The storylines ahead of this series are plentiful — Toronto won the season series 3-1, Joel Embiid and Pascal Siakam will both represent Cameroon from opposite sides of the court, and Matisse Thybulle is set to miss any and all Sixers road games because he refuses to get the second dose of the COVID vaccine.

The Raptors are a physical team with versatile defenders and the ability to out-hustle teams in transition. The Sixers boast one of the worst transition defenses in the NBA and have struggled to match physicality with teams all season. On the flip side, the Sixers have Joel Embiid. The Raptors do not.

With that in mind, what can we expect from this series? Our writers take a crack at predictions below.

Sixers-Raptors first round series prediction: Matt Cahill

This Sixers team is the ultimate wildcard.  They have played badly against bad teams and played well against good teams.  They could be swept in the first round or win the whole thing.  Every game and every round will be unpredictable, so who has any clue how this will all play out?

Unlike last year, everyone already seems to know that this Raptors team is a bad matchup for this Sixers team.  Nick Nurse is a tremendous coach and his team is tough, scrappy, and brimming with confidence. They have ball handling, passing, and shooting all over the place.  They have outplayed the 76ers in three of their four meetings this year and coach Rivers is going to have to make several changes, which has never been his strong suit.  What I can tell you is what the team SHOULD do if they want to beat Toronto and go far in the playoffs:

1. Play Paul Reed instead of DeAndre Jordan.  This one feels obvious because the whole world is screaming for it, and yet there is no reason to believe Doc Rivers cares.  The Toronto Raptors are filled with quick, athletic guys who are tough to label with a position.  It feels like they frequently play three guys who are essentially power forwards who can all shoot, handle, and rebound. They have short, quick guards who can shoot the three.  This is a horrible matchup for the slow, physical Jordan and a perfect chance to play the bouncy, high-energy Reed.  Even if he commits a lot of fouls, he only has to play 12-14 minutes per game and his fierce enthusiasm and quickness are just what this bench needs when Joel sits.  But if you are making prop bets, assume Doc is going to ignore the obvious and play Jordan.
2. Prioritize Maxey and Harris over Embiid and Harden.  Seems counterintuitive, but James and Joel can get it going at any time, while Harris and Maxey sometimes disappear for long stretches.  This team is at its very best when all four guys are playing well, and Toronto is going to game plan specifically for Joel.  Getting everyone else involved will open things up for Joel to take over late.  Run all of Tyrese and Tobias’ favorite plays and be sure to get those guys 20 plus.   It will put the Raptors on their heels, make the offense less predictable, and open up the floor for the big stars when it really matters.
3. Force feed Shake Milton.  The starters, particularly when Harden and Embiid are in together, have never been the problem.  The issue is that the bench minutes have been absolutely killing the Sixers. Going to a change of pace, faster lineup with Paul Reed would help but they still need scoring.  Milton has had confidence issues in the past and if he misses his first 2-3 shots he tends to stop shooting.  He needs to understand that bench offense is going to be his calling card for the rest of his career, so fire away with a clear conscience.  The playoff bench should be Milton, Reed, Thybulle (at home — in Toronto, the starters had better stay out of foul trouble), and Georges Niang.  That’s it.  No one else. If Niang is hurt then Furkan Korkmaz had better rediscover his shooting touch.
4. Lastly, basketball has always been a relatively simple game.  If one team can win the battle of turnovers and rebounds, that team usually wins.  Rebounding and taking care of the ball trumps everything else, and can make up for nights of poor shooting or defense.  If they can do those two things they can still make a deep playoff run.

Last year I tried to warn people that Atlanta was not going to be an easy matchup and that everyone should be prepared for it to get scary, but I still picked the Sixers in 7.  Let’s hope the second time is the charm.

Official pick: SIXERS IN SEVEN