Sixers-Raptors first round series prediction: Clayton Keir
Thud, Thud, Thud, Thud, Fwoosh. As Sixers fans, we have the final Kawhi shot from 2019 and its four physics-defying bounces around the rim seared into our brains. This year, the Sixers have a chance to avenge their 2019 loss to the Toronto Raptors. Unfortunately, the Raptors present about as bad a first round matchup as the Sixers could have found. Toronto won the season series 3-1, thanks in large part to having many athletic wings that are simply faster than the Sixers’ wings. The Sixers will also be without their best perimeter defender, Matisse Thybulle, for away games as he is ineligible to play in Toronto due to his vaccination status. Despite these problems, the Sixers should still be the favorites in the matchup thanks to the incredible play of should-be MVP, Joel Embiid.
Three Keys to the Series:
1. Which James Harden will we see?
Only the most rose-tinted glasses-wearing Sixers fan is holding out hope that we will see Harden return to his MVP form in time for the playoffs. That player is long gone. After the trade and his first few games with the team, many of us expected the team to make a deep playoff run behind his elite play. His passing and playmaking had unlocked Tyrese Maxey’s fast break and Georges Niang three-point shooting. But in recent weeks he has cooled off, bothered by his hamstring and possibly saving something for the playoffs. Does he have another gear? If so, the Sixers may saily easily by the Raptors. If not, expect a very long, painful series.
2. How will the Sixers deal with Toronto’s athleticism?
All season long, the Sixers lacked elite athleticism and speed. Tyrese Maxey is the only member of the team with elite speed. Expect the Raptors to outhustle the Sixers for loose balls and offensive rebounds, giving them many extra possessions throughout the series.
The Sixers have a few ways to counter the Raptors athleticism. First, the Sixers should put Maxey on whoever the Raptors fastest guard on the court is at any given time. Second, James Harden, grifter extraordinaire, can take advantage of overzealous defense and bait the Raptors into fouls. Third, Paul Reed offers the Sixers a new, more athletic look at the backup center position. He fights for loose balls, gets offensive rebounds, and should help the Sixers save a number of possessions. The only question is whether Coach Doc Rivers actually plays B-Ball Paul instead of DeAndre Jordan. This series, where the Raptors do not have a big, dominant center, offers the perfect opportunity for Doc to play Reed. The answer should be obvious, but will Doc see it?
3. EMVPIID
Joel Embiid is the best player on the team and his performance will determine whether the Sixers sink or swim in Round 1. The Raptors really have no answer for Embiid on defense, expect Embiid to average around 35 points a game this series, with the occasional 40 burger sprinkled in. Embiid also helps clean up other players’ messes on the defensive end. With James Harden taking on more offensive responsibilities, Embiid can focus on defense. After what Pascal Siakam did to the Sixers up in Toronto, Joel will really have to keep him out of the paint to keep the Raptors offense in check.
Prediction
I expect the Raptors to take Game 1, with Doc continuing to play DeAndre Jordan as the backup center. After the Sixers lose one game with that strategy, expect Doc to reluctantly switch to B-Ball Paul at the backup five. After that, the Sixers win four of the next five. I expect James Harden to turn it up a bit for the playoffs given his hunger for a title. Embiid should dominate on both the offensive and defensive ends, making up for the Raptors athleticism. Tyrese Maxey will continue to sizzle from 3 and take over games late.
Official pick: SIXERS IN SIX