Sixers-Raptors first round series prediction: Christopher Kline
The Sixers have settled into a concerning rhythm of late: building big leads, then blowing them, almost on a nightly basis. I have very few real concerns about the Sixers’ offense. Joel Embiid has been the most dominant scorer in the NBA all season, while James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris have all been productive to varying degrees over the past few weeks. Philadelphia has the top-end talent to win this series, and to do so convincingly. Toronto, however, is primed to win on the margins.
Nick Nurse is a better coach than Doc Rivers. Let’s start there. Rivers’ stubbornness is well documented. He’s slow to adjust and is often too prideful to look inward and evaluate his own shortcomings. Nurse, on the other hand, is a crafty head coach who can change schemes on a dime and who is willing to mix up his rotations without a moment’s hesitation.
The Raptors are deeper than the Sixers. Depth doesn’t always matter so much in the playoffs, but the Sixers have four consistently playable players. Beyond the core four, you don’t really know who’s going to show up on a nightly basis. Matters are made even worse by Thybulle’s impending absence on the road. His diminished role is not the crippling blow many have made it out to be (the Raptors’ defense is built to exploit Thybulle’s non-presence offensively), and Danny Green has come on strong in recent games, but the Sixers just cannot expect much help from the bench (or even the fifth starter). The Raptors can.
Then there’s the defensive side of the ball. Philadelphia grades out as a top-10 defense this season, largely because of Embiid’s presence in the middle, but don’t let the numbers fool you. The Sixers’ defense has been in complete disarray of late. The Sixers have multiple weak points for Toronto to target — the undisciplined 6-foot-2 Tyrese Maxey, the rapidly aging Danny Green, the slow-footed Georges Niang, and quite possibly the retired-in-spirit DeAndre Jordan. Embiid also plays primarily in drop coverage, which Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. can eagerly exploit, especially with Pascal Siakam’s shooting touch and speed at the five spot. The Raptors, on the other hand, play a connected and high-octane brand of defense, with the ability to switch one through five — which could pose major issues for James Harden, who has struggled to beat switches this season — and very few players the Sixers can successfully hunt on switches.
Toronto forces turnovers at a high clip, and the Sixers are prone to turning the ball over. The Raptors have no shortage of top-end talent either: both VanVleet and Siakam have All-NBA cases, while Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. have all had revelatory seasons in one way or another. The Raptors’ starting five is air-tight, and the bench will crush Philadelphia’s in the non-Embiid minutes, almost guaranteed.
The question is simple: do you trust Embiid to carry the Sixers through this series? The scope of the Sixers’ impending challenge is obviously larger than that — Harden has to hit shots, Maxey has to hold up defensively, Harris can’t pull his annual disappearing act — but it ultimately comes down to whether you trust Embiid to play like the MVP. If he does, the Sixers can win this series. If he doesn’t, then just about every other factor favors Toronto.
Embiid’s playoffs resumé is something of a roller coaster ride. He has never been bad in the playoffs, but he has some notable blemishes as far as shooting efficiency and turnovers. This series will come down to the wire. Conventional wisdom would be to pick the better regular season team with arguably the best regular season player, and to not put much stock in regular season matchups that are often defined by variance and dumb luck. That said, the Sixers have put their vulnerabilities on full display time and time again since the Harden trade, often fumbling away the advantages afforded to them by Embiid’s dominance and Harden’s basketball genius. The Raptors are the more connected team. The Raptors are the more physical team. The Raptors are the more well-rounded team. I’m not sure. I trust Embiid fully, but I’m not sure. This series has the distinct taste of Philadelphia’s unique brew of disappointment.
Official pick: RAPTORS IN SEVEN