Joel Embiid is one of the NBA’s premier superstars. Consecutive runner-up finishes in the MVP race have only cemented that fact. While Embiid’s inability to get over the hump and finish first has been a source of great dismay for many in the Sixers fanbase, there is no denying Embiid’s spot near the top of the NBA food chain.
Now, with the 2022-23 season on the horizon, Embiid is once again a heavy favorite to contend for the league’s top individual accolade. He has the narrative on his side — two years of almost winning — and the Sixers are expected to win quite a few regular season games. That said, is Embiid the favorite?
While it’s too early to have any real sense of the awards race, let’s canvass the league and break down the five most likely contenders for the award — and just where Embiid sits among them.
2023 NBA MVP ladder — 5. Stephen Curry
Stephen Curry reminded everyone of his greatness in the playoffs, winning his fourth championship and his first Finals MVP. He’s not in peak form anymore, but frankly, Curry’s not that far off either. He’s still a preternatural offensive talent, effortlessly warping opposing defenses and burying them with the greatest shooting stroke in league history.
Last season was the first time Curry shot below 40 percent from deep. It’s a safe bet to assume that won’t happen twice. He has the skill to continue aging gracefully, and the Warriors are right at the top of the list of contenders in the Western Conference.
Very few players elevate teammates like Curry. Whether he’s simply occupying the defense’s attention off the ball, or he’s looking to create for others out of the pick-and-roll, his presence drastically improves those around him.
He has the marquee name, the big-market exposure, and the narrative propulsion of a recent championship victory. It would be foolish to count Curry out of the MVP race, even if there are younger, fresher faces expected to join the mix.
2023 NBA MVP ladder — 4. Luka Doncic, Mavericks
Luka Doncic has been next-in-line for MVP contention for a couple years now. He’s a one-man machine like no other. The Mavs scrapped their way to the conference finals last season despite the absence of a true second star. Doncic’s ability (and the necessity) to shoulder a Herculean workload makes him a prime candidate to put up the numbers necessary to win MVP.
There’s no doubt Doncic will have the raw counting stats. He’s going to be near the top of the league in points and assists, he will probably lead the NBA in usage, and the Mavs are going to win plenty of games. That said, will Dallas win enough games? They might’ve gotten worse this summer. Plus, Doncic is easily the worst defender on this list.
For those simple reasons, Doncic does not ascend to the top of my preseason predictions. That said, he’s an absolute wizard with the basketball who will have no shortage of highlight moments and narrative support. He’s good enough to win MVP, and he’s only 23 years old. It’s a matter of when, not if.
If he can get the requisite support from teammates to win in the regular season — if Christian Wood shows up engaged and ready to win, if Spencer Dinwiddie steps up in a starting role — then Doncic is on the radar. I just wouldn’t put him in poll position just yet.
2023 NBA MVP ladder — 3. Giannis Antetokounmpo
I fear we may have reached a point where the award voting body is numb to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s greatness. He is widely proclaimed as the best player in the world — a one of one physical talent who can dominate both sides of the floor. You can slow him down, maybe, but you can’t really stop him. And yet, it feels like the two-time MVP is facing an uphill battle in the MVP race for that very reason.
If you take Giannis’ numbers last season at face value — and consider Milwaukee’s team success despite injuries around him — it’s absurd that he finished third in the MVP race. He ran into two all-time individual campaigns from Embiid and Jokic, but even still, Antetokounmpo was historically good offensively and defensively. We can call in the LeBron James effect — James only has four MVPs on his resumé, but he was far and away the best player in the NBA more than four years.
Giannis will enter next season still considered the best player in the world. Depending on who you ask, the Bucks are title favorites. There’s a good chance Milwaukee is the No. 1 seed in the East. And yet, it’s hard to call Antetokounmpo the favorite. He basically has to outperform his sky-high, best-in-the-world expectations. A simple dominant run from a two-way “Freak” probably isn’t enough.
Of course, you cannot count out Antetokounmpo. He’s liable to put up numbers we’ve never seen before. He’s liable to win DPOY and MVP simultaneously. He’s that kind of good. But, he’s not in poll position ahead of the season.
2023 NBA MVP ladder — 2. Nikola Jokic
Nikola Jokic has taken the baton from Stephen Curry and LeBron James: he’s the best offensive player of the current generation, a game-breaking talent who has changed the way fans and analysts alike see the game. Some have been more willing to embrace Jokic’s greatness than others, but two (well-earned) MVP trophies in a row cement the Serbian 7-footer’s standing in the annals of league history.
Now, can Jokic three-peat? It seems unlikely when you look at the broader history of the league. No one has won three MVP’s in a row since Larry Bird from 1984-86. There have been plenty of repeat victories, but precious few three-peats. Jokic is talented enough to win three in a row, but we run into a similar conundrum as Giannis: he is going to have to seriously outperform expectations, especially when there’s a faction of voters who — because of Jokic’s prevalence in bad-faith analytics discourse — are potentially determined to vote for someone else.
Jokic has now mounted two of the greatest statistical campaigns in league history, back-to-back. There’s every reason to believe he can do it again, and there are probably some voters who would embrace the idea of a three-peat. He racks up individual stats with the best of them, he elevates teammates (arguably more than any other star), and his efficiency numbers are off the charts. Like, literally in uncharted territory. But the NBA just has a tendency to diversify its MVP field after a certain point. Not everyone is going to think Jokic is good enough to make history alongside Larry Bird.
Because of his absolute statistical dominance and the Nuggets’ position as a sleeper contender in the West who could win a lot of games, Jokic is going to be No. 2 on this list. But he can’t be considered the leader in the clubhouse, even if he deserves to be.
2023 NBA MVP ladder — 1. Joel Embiid
If this were based strictly on performance and resumé, Jokic and Giannis (in some order) would probably rank first and second. That’s not to knock Joel Embiid, who is a dominant, Hall of Fame talent. It’s simply an admission of circumstance. Health issues have limited Embiid in the past, Philly hasn’t made it past the second round yet, and his statistical profile (while, again, historically great) doesn’t quite match up with the others.
And yet, the MVP race is never strictly about stats. It’s about wins. The Sixers will win games this season if everyone stays healthy. It’s about narrative. Embiid has finished second twice now, and there’s a large faction of NBA fans (and media) who think it’s past time to reward him for his unprecedented scoring dominance at the center position. There’s no better individual scorer in the game right now. Embiid puts up points. He doesn’t always get them in the sexiest fashion, but he’s too big and strong to guard straight up, you can’t just throw doubles at him willy-nilly anymore (he’s a good passer now), and he’s an ace at the free throw line. No one visits the free throw line more than Embiid.
There’s a good chance Embiid is right back at the top of the NBA scoring ladder next season. If he’s back in that position and the Sixers are competing for a top seed in the East, then it’s hard to imagine Embiid not being the favorite. I’m not sure I agree with saying it’s past time for him to win — Jokic deserved both of his trophies — but a lot of people would disagree with me. It’s not quite Leonardo DiCaprio winning his Oscar for The Revenant, but there’s a strong chance that Embiid wins MVP even if his case is weaker than in years past. He doesn’t have to overcome the weight of his own accolades like Jokic and Giannis.
There’s also a strong chance Embiid is the deserving winner. He’s a flat-out, game-breaking, awesome-sauce talent. Philadelphia fans know that better than anyone else. Embiid can win games on both sides of the ball, and at worst, he’s a top-five player in the NBA right now. His time is coming. Does that mean he’s the 2023 MVP? We’ll have to wait and see.