The Sixers officially went all-in last season, mortgaging an arm and a leg to acquire James Harden at the trade deadline. It resulted in another second-round exit in the playoffs — not explicitly Harden’s fault, but disappointing all the same. Now, with a new season on the horizon, the former MVP faces a set of high expectations.
Last season was Harden’s worst individual campaign in years — impressive, considering how effective he was. He looked slower and more exposed than ever before on offense. He couldn’t always turn the corner on drives to the rim. He couldn’t create separation behind the 3-point line like we’re used to. Even his jumper felt more fallible than normal. Many have blamed his struggles on a lingering hamstring injury, but Harden is also 33 years old. There are a lot of NBA miles on his body, and it’s fair to wonder if we’re at the tail end of Harden’s superstardom.
Of course, we won’t know for sure until late October. The buzz around Harden this summer has been raucously positive. He looks thinner, more explosive, more like his old self. It’s easy for a player to market his “improvement” on social media, but the Harden noise seems to extend beyond open gym highlight reels.
As the new season approaches, here are three goals for the (potentially rejuvenated) Harden.
Goal for Sixers’ James Harden: Over 25 points per game
Harden averaged over 25 points per game for eight straight seasons before his trade to Brooklyn. We are talking about one of the truly great scorers in NBA history. While Harden’s game shifted more toward creating for others last season, there’s reason to believe he could — if the reports of his improved hamstring are true — start to creep back over the 25-point threshold.
There are a couple factors to consider here. First and foremost, Joel Embiid is going to average somewhere in the 25-30 point range. Harden was the alpha dog in Houston. He’s the No. 2 in Philly, which will inherently put a dent in his scoring output. There’s also the matter of Tyrese Maxey, who is quickly ascending the staircase to stardom.
Even so, Harden averaged 21.0 points per game in 21 regular season games with Philly last season. That was with a bad hamstring, a lower comfort level within the offense, and uncharacteristic inefficiency. Harden was not aggressive enough for long stretches of last season. If he comes back healthier, and in turn comes back more aggressive, there’s no reason he and Embiid can’t both eclipse the 25-point mark (an arbitrary number, to be sure, but a good one to shoot for).
Goal for Sixers’ James Harden: Shoot over 50 percent inside the arc
Last season, Harden struggled mightily to finish at the rim with the proficiency we’re accustomed to. Those struggles are best reflected in his 2-point field goal percentage: a meager 47.6 percent. That was the first time since Harden’s rookie season that his 2-point percentage dipped below 50 percent.
If you want to focus more intently on finishes at the rim (where the majority of Harden’s 2-point shots come from, given his Morey-Ball style), Harden shot 52.8 percent on shots within five feet of the rim last season. By comparison, in 2019-20 (his last full season with Houston), Harden shot 61.8 percent on those same shots.
The Sixers need Harden to get to the rim more frequently, and they need Harden to convert more frequently once he gets there. Harden had trouble gaining separation from his defenders last season. Rather than cleanly turning the corner and rumbling downhill, he was often fighting through traffic with a hand in his face. He couldn’t elevate the same way either, which led to a lot more blocked shot attempts at the rim. He would do well to improve his in-between game as a backup (he shot 37.5 percent on shots 5-9 feet from the rim), but the Sixers need Harden returning to elite form on drives to the rack.
This number goes hand-in-hand with his points per game. If Harden is finishing on more shots at the rim, it will inherently mean he’s scoring more points. He left a lot of presumably easy points on the board last season. We’ll see if he can return to form in 2022-23.
Goal for Sixers’ James Harden: Lead the NBA in assists
Here’s the thing about James Harden: he can score a ton of points — focus on scoring a ton of points — and still lead the NBA in assists. He led the NBA with 11.2 assists per game in 2016-17 while also averaging 29.1 points per game. In 21 regular season games with the Sixers last season, Harden dished out a healthy average of 10.5 assists per game. He should make a concerted effort to score more in 2023, and he should still hope to lead the NBA in assists simultaneously.
Harden is one of the NBA’s true geniuses. Nobody can manipulate and process the game of basketball like him. Even last season, when it felt like he was moving at half-speed, Harden knew how to gain an advantage over his defender and locate passing angles. He’s extremely deliberate with his dribbles, often lulling his defender to sleep before pouncing: he can get his man off balance and draw a foul, he can force the help and dish to the open shooter, he can hit the patented step-back. There are any number of ways for Harden, in whatever state of health he’s in, to outmaneuver a defense.
The list of players who can read the floor like Harden is exceedingly short. He’s in the same tier as LeBron James, Chris Paul, Nikola Jokic — the great creatives of NBA basketball. Even when he couldn’t score last season, Harden elevated the Sixers by elevating everyone around him. He’s the first great passer of the Embiid era. He can sling bullets out of the pick-and-roll. He can reward cuts to the rim. He can kickstart transition opportunities. He generates countless 3s for teammates. While Ben Simmons passed a lot, Harden passes with a purpose and precision the Sixers simply aren’t used to. He was excellent last season because of that, no matter how maligned he was for his scoring woes.
Harden is always on the shortlist of players who might lead the NBA is assists. He should make a point of it next season. The Sixers’ clearest path to a championship involves Harden playing like a superstar next to Embiid. He needs to make the most of his many touches. It’s now a matter of waiting to see if he has another year of greatness left in the tank.