Although the Philadelphia 76ers are poised to have a bounce-back 2025-26 season, Las Vegas is still skeptical. FanDuel Sportsbook set Philadelphia’s over/under regular season win total at 41.5. In comparison, the 76ers’ over/under for last season was placed at 50.5 victories during the Paul George hype. While 41.5 wins seems low, it’s an accurate representation of what your expectations for them should be – at least for the regular season.
Could the 76ers fall into the under?
First, let’s evaluate why Philadelphia could finish with fewer than 41 wins. Despite a seemingly extended recovery, it remains to be seen whether Joel Embiid can return to an elite level. If so, can he reasonably endure an 82-game regular season and a possible playoff run? It’s important to note that Embiid only played 19 games because of lingering issues with his left knee. In limited action, he was far from the best version of himself.
Now, he’s coming off an arthroscopic procedure without a clear timetable to return. During his post-draft availability, Daryl Morey told the media he’s hopeful Embiid could be cleared around the start of training camp. Even if all goes well with his return, it’s safe to assume he’ll miss a notable amount of games because of load management. If so, Philadelphia will need Tyrese Maxey and Paul George will need to pick up the slack, which brings me to my next point.
George, who entered last season fully healthy, was limited to 41 games due to various injuries he accumulated throughout the past year. Not to mention, he also underwent an arthroscopic procedure on July 14th after getting injured during an offseason workout. This pattern of little injuries is starting to take place as the 35-year-old is entering just the second season of his four-year/$212 million contract.
The 76ers will have more than 41 wins
It remains to be seen if Embiid and George will be relatively available in 2025-26, but one thing is for sure – Tyrese Maxey will have to carry most of the offensive burden in the regular season. Last year, we saw him struggle to be the offensive engine Philadelphia needed to keep itself afloat. However, with more stability, it’s reasonable to expect Maxey to have an easier time leveraging scoring and playmaking.
It’s also worth mentioning that Philadelphia is operating with more youth and athleticism between Maxey, Jared McCain, Quentin Grimes, Justin Edwards, Adem Bona, and V.J. Edgecombe. So, even if George and Embiid aren’t at their best throughout the regular season, the 76ers have adequate depth and youth to remain competitive. Those two components often yield success in the regular season.
Make no mistake, Philadelphia will need a healthy Embiid and George to truly contend. But, if they’re managed in the regular season, the 76ers have the pieces to not fall apart unlike the 2024-25 season. I want to preface that I’m not giving any betting advice, but it’s rational to believe that Philadelphia will finish with more than 41 wins and obtain at least a top-six seed.