The first round of the Eastern Conference NBA playoffs is going to be a rock fight. Any combination of Philadelphia, Toronto, Orlando, and Miami could advance, but no one would be surprised to see any of that group bow out in the first round, either. Differences between these teams are miniscule — but the Sixers might have an edge on the Toronto Raptors, specifically, which makes them the most favorable potential first-round matchup: the fourth quarter.
Over the past month-plus, the Raptors have been the worst fourth quarter team in basketball. It's not pretty. They're unable to hold leads in the final frame, as the offense comes to a screeching halt most nights. Raps fans have zero confidence this team can finish games, because the team has shown time and again that they can't.
Meanwhile, the Sixers have been a good fourth quarter team all year. They're No. 7 in fourth quarter net rating, anchored by the second-best fourth quarter defensive rating in the league.
It's not just a defensive effort though, as the Sixers also have the eighth-best 3-point percentage in the fourth quarter (36.6%) compared to the Raptors, who shoot a league-worst 28.7% from deep in the final 12 minutes. That's a startlingly bad clip, but we're far past the "small sample size" days. This is over 60 games worth of data!
76ers' ability to finish could be a difference-maker in the postseason
Things get weird in the playoffs. Being good in the fourth quarter isn't the end-all, be-all series decider. In fact, many stats point to the Raptors being a better team overall than the Sixers. But of all the teams currently in the top six, the Raptors are the most vulnerable — even moreso than the seventh-place Magic or the scorching hot Hornets, in my opinion.
The Sixers should be confident that a fully healthy roster can beat any of the teams in the mix right now (happy Groundhog Day). But when games get tight in the final minutes, the Sixers' ability to shut the door and the Raptors' inability to do that would bode awfully well for a team that never seems to get breaks in the postseason.