The Philadelphia 76ers may not be able to win the Kevin Durant trade sweepstakes, but they need to offer Paul George in case the Phoenix Suns take the bait.
Predicting where Kevin Durant is going to end up is something of a fool's errand at this point in the offseason. Is he going to be traded? Definitely. Will he be traded in the next few weeks? Almost certainly. Is there any clarity about where he will end up? Negative, Ghost Rider.
Bill Simmons thinks Durant to the San Antonio Spurs is a done deal. The Houston Rockets make sense. The Miami Heat are a frontrunner. Then the Minnesota Timberwolves are. Don't sleep on the LA Clippers! The Toronto Raptors are going to make a run. The Detroit Pistons should make a run. The New York Knicks are in the race, out of the race, in the race.
There is no question that if the Philadelphia 76ers are comfortable with the recovery of Joel Embiid and desire to make a run at contending in the Eastern Conference next season, Kevin Durant would be a major asset toward that goal. His game would pair excellently with Embiid's, and he would bring size to a team with a number of smaller key pieces in Tyrese Maxey, Quentin Grimes and Jared McCain.
Yet to trade for Kevin Durant, the 76ers have to include one of their three big-contract stars. Embiid's contract is toxic until he can prove himself healthy, and trading the 24-year-old Maxey for the 36-year-old Durant would be a fool's errand. Paul George, on the other hand, is an ideal player to send back to the Suns.
The 76ers should offer Paul George for Kevin Durant
Both Durant and George are making over $50 million next season, with George under contract for $51.6 and Durant earning $54.7. Things are not quite as equal as they seem, of course, since George had a disastrous season in Philadelphia while Durant himself still played at an All-Star level despite the Suns' misfortunes.
And while George is under contract for three more seasons, the one team that may care about that less than most is the Suns, who are willing to pay through the nose for a competitive team. With Durant eligible for a lucrative two-year extension, the difference in cost is likely to be minimum over the next three seasons anyway, and George cannot bolt in free agency next summer as Durant can.
Would the Suns be intrigued enough by the two-way play and career accolades of Paul George to accept an offer of PG13 and a future first? Would the 76ers be willing to send two firsts with George to move off of his money and bring back Kevin Durant? Does Phoenix get fixated on the No. 3 pick and refuse any other offers?
It is without question that other teams can trump the 76ers' best realistic offer (they are not trading No. 3 for Durant), but those teams may not make their best offer. Phoenix might think highly of George and feel that they are exchanging like-for-like. And for Philly, moving off of that contract and adding a player still scoring, playmaking and even defending at a high level is a coup de grace for their offseason.
There is an argument to be made that Philadelphia should be focusing on the future, not the present, and that using any future assets to make a run this season with Joel Embiid is a mistake. Indeed, putting any amount of trust in Embiid's body to be ready in the playoffs is a significant risk.
Yet the possible upside of such a trade, coupled with the future flexibility and the star power of Kevin Durant, make this a trade the 76ers have to offer -- whether or not the Suns will ever say yes.