The Philadelphia 76ers are off to a hot start, one that is burning brighter and hotter than anyone outside of Philly predicted. It may all come crashing down when Paul George returns from injury this month.
The question heading into the season for the 76ers was whether the franchise should lean into their veterans and try to make one more run with Joel Embiid and Paul George, hoping their veteran stars could stay healthy enough when it mattered -- or whether they should focus solely on their new young core and punt this season's record into the Delaware River.
Yet the 76ers have somehow managed to have their cake and eat it too. They are 5-1, in first-place in the Eastern Conference and with the league's No. 2 offensive rating, and they have done so with Joel Embiid a shell of himself and Paul George not playing a single minute. Instead, their young core has stepped up in a major way.
Tyrese Maxey has been one of the best players in the entire league thus far, averaging 33.7 points and nine assists per game. He leads the NBA in minutes per game, field goal attempts and made 3-pointers, and he is shooting 46.4 percent from deep on a whopping 9.3 attempts per game.
Right next to him are the other members of this breakout backcourt for the Sixers. Quentin Grimes, playing on his qualifying offer because the team wasn't willing to offer him a sizable new contract, is putting up 19.2 points per game and shooting 45.2 percent himself from deep. Rookie VJ Edgecombe has been a revelation in his first two weeks of NBA action, putting up 20.3 points per game, hitting 42.1 percent from deep and adding five rebounds, five assists and 1.5 steals per game.
The 76ers have five different players averaging at least 17 points per game this season when you add in Joel Embiid (fifth on the team with 17.3 points per game) and Kelly Oubre, who is running and gunning his way to 19.5 points and 6.3 rebounds. The four-man lineup of Oubre, Maxey, Edgecombe and Grimes has played 62 minutes together this season and is outscoring opponents by 46.9 points per 100 possessions.
It's unrealistic to expect this group to shoot the lights out for the entire season, and at some point opponents will take advantage of their lack of size playing three guards together. They are somewhat lucky to be 5-1, needing some come-from-behind wins to prop up their record (although, to be fair, they have the league's 6th-best net rating). Yet those are somewhat minor problems. Their biggest problem?
Paul George is coming back.
Paul George could ruin everything
Paul George has a lot of clout as a former All-NBA player and MVP finalist. He signed a four-year max contract to join the team in free agency in 2024. His return should only make the 76ers stronger, especially given a relative lack of depth in the frontcourt. Yet Sixers fans may in fact be dreading his return.
George was awful last season; there is no reason to sugarcoat it. He was injured for much of the year, but even when he played (admittedly, often while hurt) he was terrible. He averaged 16.2 points per game on 13.9 shots, both functionally career-lows. He hit only 35.8 percent from deep, only got to the line 2.4 times per game, and his offensive impact was below average when compared to the entire league. That's hardly max-level production.
George is 35 years old, has battled a myriad of injuries and is coming off of an awful year. There is nothing to suggest that his return to this team, which is leaning into youth and speed and energy, will result in an even higher level of play. Rather, George demanding touches and shots will pull the efficiency of the offense down to the earth, and his more methodical approach to defense will erode their average level of play on that end.
There is a world where George comes in, plays a modest role, and tries to be a 3-and-D forward to replace the minutes of Justin Edwards and Trendon Watford and Jabari Walker. Yet those players are giving their all, and George may not be able to do that as he returns from injury. If he can't, he becomes a problem overall even if he is a better player on paper than those he is replacing.
The 76ers have found something special. Perhaps it lasts, perhaps it doesn't. But Paul George returning isn't a cause for celebration, at least not in the short-term; it's a cause for concern. The end of this magical run may be on the horizon.