When the average basketball fan discovers an 18-year-old who was supposedly 6’ 10 in his freshman year of college with flashes of elite shot-making, one player instantly comes to mind. That player is Kevin Durant, who revolutionized how players 6’ 10 and above can score the basketball. With such influence, it’s easy for fans to say that Ace Bailey is the second coming of Durant, but when you deep-dive into his young career, it becomes clear that this isn’t the case. Bailey may not be Durant, but he could still be a sound fit with the Philadelphia 76ers.
Bailey is heading into the 2025 NBA Draft, widely regarded as a top-three to five prospect in this deeply talented incoming rookie class. In his lone season at Rutgers, he posted 17.6 points per game on 53.6% true-shooting, 7.2 rebounds per game, and 1.3 blocks per game. Bailey earned a spot on the 2024-25 Big Ten All-Freshman Team and received All-Big Ten Third Team honors. Despite his success, he and Dylan Harper led Rutgers to an underwhelming 15-17 record and failed to reach the NCAA Tournament.
While the duo has received notable criticism for Rutgers’ shortcomings, Bailey ran into controversy from the school itself. Before the 2024-25 campaign, the Scarlet Knights listed Bailey at 6’ 10, which accumulated great skepticism that was only amplified this week. The 2025 NBA Draft Combine commenced on Wednesday, and Bailey measured in at 6’ 7.5 without shoes – proving that Rutgers severely exaggerated. While these results are disappointing, shoes will give Bailey at least another one and a half inches, which will place him at roughly 6’ 9.
Ace Bailey is a project with plenty of upside
Logistics aside, Bailey is a raw prospect on both ends of the floor, but he has plenty of upside that justifies Philadelphia potentially selecting him with the third overall pick. Throughout the year, many grew fascinated with Bailey’s ability to create offense at his size, but this aspect of his game is a bit overblown. While Bailey has undeniably shown jaw-dropping flashes of isolation scoring, especially from the perimeter and mid-range, the lows are just as prevalent as the highs.
Bailey tends to settle for contested twos rather than attack the rim, which has been a huge concern regarding his translatability to the NBA. Bailey holds a rim frequency percentage of 15.3 compared to the likes of Harper, Cooper Flagg, and Jeremiah Fears, who all have a percentage of over 35. This discrepancy is due to the fact that Bailey has shown an inability to get past defenders off the dribble and consistently make the right decisions with the ball.
If Bailey isn’t using his length to overwhelm defenders at the college level, one has to wonder how he’ll fare against the likes of OG Anunoby, Evan Mobley, Herb Jones, etc. Still, Bailey is only 18 years old and, despite weighing in at 202 pounds at the combine, he has lots of time to add more muscle to improve as a downhill threat, amongst other aspects of his game that need ironing out.
However, there are two areas Bailey must improve in to maximize his on-ball scoring at the professional level – ball-handling and playmaking. While Bailey’s struggles at the rim can be attributed to his lack of strength, his questionable handle is equally problematic. Bailey also lacks ample playmaking instincts, as his responses to tighter defensive coverages have given mixed results, and he also forces contested shots rather than reading the floor. At Rutgers, Bailey averaged 1.8 assists per game and two turnovers per game, which reflects these issues.
While I listed a lot more negatives than positives regarding Bailey’s self-creation, all of the problems are fixable, especially throughout his first few seasons in the NBA. As previously mentioned, Bailey is only 18 years old, and aspects such as ball-handling, playmaking, shot selection, and lack of strength are all issues most rookies deal with to some degree. With extended reps, proper coaching, and gradual development, Bailey will turn into at least a standard on-ball creator.
Ace Bailey can still make an impact for the 76ers right away
At this point in the article, you may believe that Bailey is more of a long-term project, and you’d be correct, but there are parts of his game that could be a great help to the 76ers as soon as next season. Bailey is already an above-average spot-up shooter as he converted on 38.7% of his catch-and-shoot threes this past season. If Philadelphia utilizes him in various off-ball actions to free him up to fire off the catch, he’d be a great complement to the likes of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George.
Another facet of Bailey’s off-ball repertoire that the 76ers could explore is his cutting. While that’s still a bit of a work in progress for Bailey, he’s shown some glimpses of solid cutting, especially using his athleticism in transition. This is exactly why Bailey has rightfully garnered comparisons to Michael Porter Jr. After all, Daryl Morey did repeatedly state that he wants to surround Philadelphia’s star trio with younger, more dynamic, and athletic players, and Bailey perfectly matches the bill.
Defensively, Bailey has to take some strides as a point-of-attack defender, especially when navigating screens. However, his true defensive upside lies in his ability to protect the paint as an athletic help defender. Bailey can thrive when assigned a free safety role where he can roam from the weak-side and crash into the paint to blow up opposing dribble penetration. With Embiid’s defense taking a steep regression this season, placing an athletic help defender alongside him would greatly alleviate pressure.
If Bailey becomes the first third overall pick by Philadelphia since Jahlil Okafor, I envision that he’d mold into a reserve forward. As it stands, Bailey has too many limitations on both ends to start, but with his upside as an off-ball threat and help-defender with elite athleticism, there is undoubtedly a place for him in the 76ers’ rotation. The most important development factor for someone with Bailey’s potential is that he gets genuine experience and not rotting on the bench until garbage time.