The Philadelphia 76ers are looking to keep up their impressive record as road favorites (8-4 against the spread) when they take on the Tyrese Haliburton-less Indiana Pacers on Thursday night.
Joel Embiid has been putting up insane scoring numbers night after night, and he’s one player that I’m eyeing in the prop market tonight.
Plus, there could be a first-quarter angle – that partially relates to Embiid’s time on the floor – that could be lucrative for Philly bettors.
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Let’s break down the props for this matchup between two potential playoff teams in the East.
Sixers vs. Pacers best NBA prop bets
- Joel Embiid OVER 36.5 points
- Pascal Siakam UNDER 31.5 points, rebounds and assists
- Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter Moneyline vs. Indiana Pacers
Joel Embiid OVER 36.5 points
The Sixers have faced Indiana twice this season with Embiid in the lineup, and the reigning MVP has put up 37 and 39 points in those games.
Can he do that a third time and clear this points prop? I think so.
The Pacers rank dead last in the NBA in opponent points in the paint allowed per game (60.2) this season, and Embiid should make quick work of Myles Turner, Isaiah Jackson, and Jalen Smith down low.
Since Dec. 6, Embiid is averaging 40.3 points per game, an insane number for a 16-game stretch!
He’s cleared 36.5 points nine times in those 16 games. Since Indiana loves to push the pace (No. 2 in the NBA) and struggles on defense (No. 27 in defensive rating), I can’t imagine fading Embiid in this spot.
Pascal Siakam UNDER 31.5 points, rebounds and assists
Since joining the Pacers, Pascal Siakam has yet to clear these points, rebounds assists prop, posting 30, 26, and 30 PRA in those matchups.
Without Tyrese Haliburton creating open looks for everyone, the Pacers offense hasn’t been as lethal as of late. The team is just 22nd in the NBA in points per game since Siakam joined the roster.
Siakam doesn’t grab a ton of rebounds or dish the ball at a crazy high rate (6.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists per game this season), so we’re banking on him scoring 20-plus points to clear this prop.
Even in the game he did that, he still fell short of this number. I’ll fade him on Thursday.
Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter Moneyline vs. Indiana Pacers
I love this play for the Sixers, as they have the benefit of not having to face Haliburton in this game.
That’s going to change the Indiana offense a lot, as the team is averaging nine fewer points per game in the 10 matchups the All-Star guard has missed this season.
I love taking Philly early as Embiid’s usual rotation is to play the entire first quarter (where he is the NBA’s leading scorer). Indiana is at home in this game, but the team ranks just 19th in the NBA in first-quarter net rating at minus-2.4.
The Sixers are slightly better, ranking 13th at plus-1.3. I’ll trust Philly to lead after 12 minutes of Embiid on Thursday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.