For over a month, Quentin Grimes and the Philadelphia 76ers have been at a stalemate when discussing a new contract. This has prevented Philadelphia from making any finishing touches to its roster if any are to be made. After weeks of radio silence, Jake Fischer gave us somewhat of an update, and it may shock you. Yesterday, Jake Fischer reported that there is “some buzz” around Grimes taking his $8.7 million qualifying offer from the 76ers.
If he does this, it would epitomize the idea of betting on yourself. By accepting that offer, Grimes would be able to enter unrestricted free agency after the 2025-26 season with the hopes of finding a lucrative deal from Philadelphia or elsewhere. However, this option hasn’t historically tracked well for restricted free agents.
The Nerlens Noel horror story
There are many examples of this going south, but the one that stands out the most is between Nerlens Noel and the Dallas Mavericks. After being traded to the Mavericks by none other than the 76ers midway into the 2016-17 season, Noel had a strong close to the season. He played 22 games for Dallas where he averaged 8.5 points per game, 6.8 rebounds per game, and 1.1 blocks per game.
Believing he could be its center for the long-term future, Dallas offered Noel a four-year/$70 million deal. Shockingly, Noel refused and took his $4.1 million qualifying offer with the intent to seek a more substantial contract the following year. This catastrophically backfired as Noel posted just 4.4 points per game in 30 appearances in the 2017-18 campaign. He then signed a veteran minimum contract with the Oklahoma City Thunder in the summer of 2018.
This isn't a good idea for Grimes
I don’t believe Grimes would suffer as horrific of fate as Noel did. However, with how talented Philadelphia’s back-court is, Grimes betting on himself could come back to haunt him. There’s a non-zero chance he could be surpassed by Jared McCain and/or V.J. Edgecombe and have his role decreased as a result. If so, Grimes likely won’t command more money than he’s currently being offered next summer.
Regardless, if he chose to bet on himself, it would be to the 76ers’ short-term benefit. With Grimes’ $8.7 million hypothetically going on their payroll, they’d be $2.3 million below the first tax apron, which is huge for roster flexibility. Not to mention, if Grimes were to re-sign on a long-term contract, the 76ers would inevitably be a first apron team.