The 76ers are less than a month away from potentially facing a nightmare

Yesterday was monumental to the Philadelphia 76ers’ aspirations for the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery on May 12th. It marked the upcoming lottery as less than three weeks away and Cooper Flagg – the best prospect in his incoming draft class – officially declared for the 2025 NBA Draft. Since Philadelphia began its tank, fans have fantasized about pairing up Flagg alongside Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, and Jared McCain. However, a lone demon from the 76ers’ haunted past could destroy the fans and the organization’s hopes alike.

The 76ers' predicament in the upcoming draft

In Daryl Morey’s first trade as Philadelphia’s president of basketball operations, he sent a package headlined by Al Horford to the Oklahoma City Thunder to essentially dump off Horford’s four-year/$109 million salary ahead of the 2020 NBA Draft. Then and now, this proved to be the correct move as Horford was a suboptimal fit alongside Embiid. Still, there was one detail of the trade that didn’t seem consequential at the time but could now make or break the 76ers’ future. 

To sweeten the pot for Oklahoma City, Philadelphia threw in its 2025 first-round pick in the deal. At the time, it was a universal belief that the 76ers would still be in playoff contention this season, which likely would’ve been the case if they weren’t ransacked by injuries within the past year. Philadelphia placed a protection on the polarizing pick where if it falls between selections one through six in the upcoming lottery, it returns to its rightful sender. However, if the pick lands from selections seven and above, it goes to Oklahoma City. 

The 76ers concluded this season with a 24-58 record, which proved to be the fifth-worst mark in the NBA. Philadelphia’s losing efforts paid off as it has a 64% chance of retaining its upcoming pick and a 10.5% chance of winning the first overall pick. Needless to say, many fans are rightfully optimistic about the ping-pong balls landing in Philadelphia’s favor, but it’s equally important to question what would happen if its pick fell into the hands of Oklahoma City.

The 76ers could be doomed

Throughout this unprecedented season, I’ve attempted to find the silver lining for the 76ers amidst the chaos whether it was pointing out their prospects with upside or talking at length about their odds for the upcoming lottery. With that being said, if Philadelphia’s pick goes to Oklahoma City, there isn’t a single positive or glass-half-full approach that can be taken. This possibility would be nothing short of a nightmare. 

The 76ers entered the season with their newly-formed star trio of Embiid, Maxey, and George with hopes that they could surpass the Eastern Conference SemiFinals for the first time since the 2000-01 season. With the colossal addition of George, many hailed the 76ers as the winners of the 2024 offseason However, Philadelphia couldn’t even make it past the Bahamas – where its training camp took place this season.

From the start of training camp, Embiid struggled to remain on the floor due to the lingering effects of tearing his meniscus in his left knee last season and promptly rushing back for the postseason. That snowballed into the 76ers aggressively load-managing Embiid throughout this season – resulting in him appearing in just 19 games and getting shut down for the rest of the year in late February. As a result, he underwent another procedure on his left knee a few weeks ago.

Meanwhile, George – who entered this season fully healthy – sustained a series of nagging injuries from his knee to his groin that limited him to just 41 games and caused him to also be shut down in March. Whether it was injuries, regression, or a mix of both, George – who is set to enter the second term of his four-year/$212 million contract next season – sustained a notable decrease in production as he appeared a long way away from his days of being an all-star caliber player. 

Whether Embiid can return to his once-dominant self remains to be seen, but the fact that George accumulated a series of lingering injuries without entering the season banged up is extremely concerning for the 76ers’ contention window. While Maxey was largely available for Philadelphia before it decided to tank, he also had a down year due to lack of chemistry and roster instability.

Simply put, Philadelphia needs the upcoming lottery to work out in its favor – not only to add more talent to its roster – but to extend its timeline. Considering the array of glaring question marks that plague the 76ers' big three, having a tandem of Maxey, McCain, and whoever they hypothetically draft this year could make it easier to pivot from the likes of Embiid and George in the future to usher in a new era.