Sinking Sacramento Soaring Sixers
So why is this a Philadelphia 76ers article? Well the NBA draft lottery does not guarantee a worst finishing team the best pick. That pick is subject to a lottery system which gives the worst team in the NBA no better than a 25% chance of getting the top pick in the NBA draft. But the Sixers can swap their draft position with that of the Sacramento Kings should the Kings draw a more favorable position.
If the NBA season were to end today, the Philadelphia 76ers have their 25% chance of getting the top pick in the draft. But Sacramento also has a slight chance at that same pick, in ninth worst place they enjoy a 1.7% chance. So if they get the top pick, the Sixers would exercise that right and get the top pick in place of Sacramento. Finishing worst gives some protection in the NBA draft, as the team will get no worse than the fourth pick of the NBA draft and has a 64.3% chance of getting a top three pick.
The ninth place finisher has only a 6.1% chance of getting a top three NBA pick. But swapping rights give that option to Philadelphia. So they have their 64.3% chance of a top three pick, but add the 6.1% chance if Sacramento gets the top three pick. That brings the likelihood of the Sixers getting a top three pick up to 70.4%. But that is based on a Sacramento Kings team finishing at ninth place.
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If the Kings wilt in the face of this “abandon ship” rumor, the Sixers benefit greatly. A fifth worst place team chances of a top three pick jump all the way up to 29.2% chances of a top three pick. That places the Sixers chance at a top three pick at 93.5 % certainty. If the Sacramento Kings fall to fourth worst team in the NBA, the Sixers will be guaranteed a top three pick, and their odds of obtaining the top pick in the NBA draft soar to 36.9% chance.
UPDATE February 9, 2016: Sacramento Kings Decide NOT to fire Karl.
Apparently the Kings woke up this morning and decided they didn't want to fire George Karl: https://t.co/WlRmNugMDi pic.twitter.com/ctbyj6Uhsa
— FanSided (@FanSided) February 9, 2016
But this really doesn’t impact the Sixers pick options. Karl’s tenure with the Kings has not exactly been a highlight of his coaching career, despite that strong starting five. The team continues to struggle both in player development and in the draft, both being the wheelhouse for improving an NBA team’s fortunes. So it’s likely we’ll see more of the same – trading for players who may give some quality minutes, but overlooking the other ten men on the roster. With Sacramento hovering in the lower third of NBA teams record wise, the Sixers continue to benefit on draft day with the option for the Kings pick.
What will the Sixers do with that pick? We can’t say for sure, but we can delight in the situation as this unfolds. But we do know that the 76ers will have decisions to make on draft night, many decisions. That is due to the fact that the Sixers could be selecting four times in the first round of the NBA draft, or four of the top thirty emerging NCAA prospects.