Sinking Sacramento Send Sixers Skyward

The Sacramento Kings Are In Trouble. Rumors have the team parting ways with head coach George Karl and shopping players days before the NBA trade deadline. Those usually indicate a team on a decline. But with the Sixers having the right to swap picks with the Kings, this is sending the Sixers hopes of a good NBA draft skyward.

As time draws closer to a major event in virtually any professional sport, the harbinger of that deadline is the frequency of rumors. Some are based in leaks, some are based in misinformation, while others are forged from the fires of pure speculation. Put it out there and see what sticks.  What is true or isn’t true can only be sorted out with the lapse of the same time that seems to be running so quickly away from NBA teams seeking an opportunity for one last trade to set their teams aright as they aim at post season play, or at the upcoming NBA draft.

We talked about teams whose trajectory appeared to be falling behind that of the quickly improving Philadelphia 76ers.  In fact, we identified a number of teams who began the 2015-2016 NBA season with a belief they might have an improved year, but who have fallen by the wayside and are at risk of being overtaken by the once 1 win 30 loss Philadelphia 76ers.

One such team is the Sacramento Kings.  In that previous article, I assert that the demise of the Kings this season is both surprising and ironic:  surprising in that the five starters on the team of center DeMarcus Cousins, power forward Rudy Gay, point guard Rajon Rondo, shooting guard Ben McLemore, and small forward Omri Casspri are actually a very solid group of players.

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But the Kings have a bench that gives little help.  That situation has crippled the team’s season this year.  Funny, but this is a team who began by shedding player contracts to bid for the high cost of available free agents.  The Philadelphia 76ers benefited from that “Win NOW!” mentality, absorbing high cost contracts in exchange for coveted former first round selection Nik Stauskas, power forward Carl Landry, Jason Thompson (who was subsequently dealt for draft picks) and the rights to swap draft position with the Kings in both 2016 and 2017 NBA drafts.

Ironic in that the strategy of a perennially sub-.500 team must embrace player development at some point.

Next: Karl Klobbers

Karl Klobbers Sixers Strategy

Growing players to NBA leadership roles requires tremendous patience, patience that current coach George Karl seemingly does not have much time for.  You see, he is not unfamiliar to Philadelphia 76ers fans.  It was his sharply pointed comments about the Philadelphia 76er rebuild process as part of ESPN’s Front Office panel where George Karl burned any sympathetic bridges to anyone who believes that #TrustTheProcess has any likelihood of success.  His was the voice of any angry coach, whose long term outlook was only as far as one NBA season.  Unfortunately, he had an open microphone at his disposal when he felt a need to obliterate the 76ers plan.

"What is happening in Philadelphia should not be called ‘tanking’; rather, it should be called ‘destruction.’ The Sixers are at least three to five years away from even being a respectful — respectful — NBA roster. They are worse than they were at the end of last year. Three of the five starters barely played last season. I understand building around talent, but people have to understand that sometimes young players just don’t develop. You put all your eggs in that basket, but if the kids don’t pan out, you’re sunk. I think this roster has such a low level of talent they’ll be hard-pressed to win an NBA game. To put this team through another season of turmoil will be devastating. What is being built in Philadelphia is not the development of young players, but instead a culture of losing. – George Karl"

The timing of this round table discussion was 2014, and was immediately following the delayed realization of drafting both Dario Saric and Joel Embiid. To the sixth most winningnest coach in the NBA, the strategy of the Philadelphia 76ers – delaying the benefit – was beyond his scope of understanding, and he called the organization out as harshly as any one person could on nationally televised media.  Following the tirade, he was given the reigns of the Sacramento Kings to face that Sixer team that was “hard-pressed to win an NBA game”.

So it came with sweet poetic justice that the team reminded Karl of his words when the Sixers beat George Karl and the Sacramento Kings 114-107 in March 2015:

Next: Karma Klobbers Karl

Karma Klobbers Karl

If I seem a little unsympathetic to the plight of George Karl, that is not my intent. My intent is the fortunes of the Philadelphia 76ers, and right now the Philadelphia 76ers good fortune is tied to the demise, er, misfortune of the Sacramento Kings.  You see, what goes around comes around.  That’s the world of professional sports.  The Sacramento Kings have not ascended anywhere in the last three years.  Despite the ridicule, the Kings have had as much post season presence since 2013 as the Philadelphia 76ers.

You see, as told in the lyrics to Billy Joel pop song

We didn’t start the fire
It was always burning
Since the (NBA) world’s been turning
We didn’t start the fire
No we didn’t light it
But we tried to fight it.

What goes around comes around. To a head coach who argued at the strategy used by Sam Hinkie and the Philadelphia 76ers who have languished at the bottom of the NBA, there is no hope right now, only despair.  But bright hope is now shining in in the eyes of fans whose team who has patiently and methodically pulled together a talented young roster with the goal of delivering something special in 2016.  The NBA  guy with so much vitriol for the Philadelphia 76ers, whose own team has ended the past three years with 28 wins, 29 wins, and is currently on pace to win 30 games is not exactly a vantage point from which to throw stones at a team as “destruction.”  It is a place that grows despair, and anguish.  That usually means a change of coaching staff.

Next: Sinking Sacramento, Soaring Sixers

Sinking Sacramento Soaring Sixers

So why is this a Philadelphia 76ers article? Well the NBA draft lottery does not guarantee a worst finishing team the best pick. That pick is subject to a lottery system which gives the worst team in the NBA no better than a 25% chance of getting the top pick in the NBA draft.  But the Sixers can swap their draft position with that of the Sacramento Kings should the Kings draw a more favorable position.

If the NBA season were to end today, the Philadelphia 76ers have their 25% chance of getting the top pick in the draft. But Sacramento also has a slight chance at that same pick, in ninth worst place they enjoy a 1.7% chance. So if they get the top pick, the Sixers would exercise that right and get the top pick in place of Sacramento. Finishing worst gives some protection in the NBA draft, as the team will get no worse than the fourth pick of the NBA draft and has a 64.3% chance of getting a top three pick.

The ninth place finisher has only a 6.1% chance of getting a top three NBA pick. But swapping rights give that option to Philadelphia. So they have their 64.3% chance of a top three pick, but add the 6.1% chance if Sacramento gets the top three pick. That brings the likelihood of the Sixers getting a top three pick up to 70.4%. But that is based on a Sacramento Kings team finishing at ninth place.

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If the Kings wilt in the face of this “abandon ship” rumor, the Sixers benefit greatly. A fifth worst place team chances of a top three pick jump all the way up to 29.2% chances of a top three pick.   That places the Sixers chance at a top three pick at 93.5 % certainty.  If the Sacramento Kings fall to fourth worst team in the NBA, the Sixers will be guaranteed a top three pick, and their odds of obtaining the top pick in the NBA draft soar to 36.9% chance.

UPDATE February 9, 2016: Sacramento Kings Decide NOT to fire Karl.

But this really doesn’t impact the Sixers pick options. Karl’s tenure with the Kings has not exactly been a highlight of his coaching career, despite that strong starting five. The team continues to struggle both in player development and in the draft, both being the wheelhouse for improving an NBA team’s fortunes. So it’s likely we’ll see more of the same – trading for players who may give some quality minutes, but overlooking the other ten men on the roster. With Sacramento hovering in the lower third of NBA teams record wise, the Sixers continue to benefit on draft day with the option for the Kings pick.

What will the Sixers do with that pick?  We can’t say for sure, but we can delight in the situation as this unfolds.  But we do know that the 76ers will have decisions to make on draft night, many decisions.  That is due to the fact that the Sixers  could be selecting four times in the first round of the NBA draft, or four of the top thirty emerging NCAA prospects.