Philadelphia 76er Jerry Colangelo does not mince words, nor does he waste them. So when he places the team on a three year timeline, there is more to it than meets the eye.
Rome wasn’t built in a day.
But it might still be a work in process if it were left to Philadelphia 76ers president and head coach Sam Hinkie. At least, that is the perspective on the streets, in the minds of other basketball executives. Rebuilding is a two-year process, at most, in the eyes of many.
But how many teams made a deep run after a quick rebuild?
"“I’d like to see us very competitive in three years. . . . That means not just making the playoffs,” said Jerry Colangelo, who was hired as chairman of basketball operations in December."
We had looked at the structure of a championship team in an article some months ago using the basketball analytics approach. To create a championship team, one that will win in the post season, the team needs to have a minimum of three players – one needs to be in the top 96th percentile, the second needs to be in the 90th percentile, and the third needs to be in the top 79th percentile.
With thirty teams in the NBA, lets break that down into real numbers. One of the players needs to be the best in the league, one of the players needs to be in the top three in the league, and finally, one of the players needs to be in the top six of the league. Of the team’s current roster, who on the team fills those slots with their current scheme? Well the front court is likely to contribute the lion’s share of talent who might be projected to fill those types of statistical overachievers, but in three years? Hmmm….
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But when you sit down to build a team and break it down, that’s where the planners MUST place the team. One top player, one in the top three, and a third in the top six. The remainder of the team cannot be bad, but merely adequate enough to perform with quality minutes. Right now, the Philadelphia 76ers players who perform like a Robert Covington, Ish Smith, even a defender like Jerami Grant, a hot hand off the bench like Isaiah Canaan or a young talent with upside like Richaun Holmes might fill out the roster. But with all the talk of “getting better”, that means the Sixers must truly find that superstar, and one who can perform better than any other player in the NBA at his position, in the next three years.
That’s a far cry from where the team is now. But to do that, here’s the plan as it is currently evolving, the team needs to recognize who has those attributes quickly and accurately. Let’s see how the Colangelo bolt-on has impacted the overall approach of Trusting The Process. I’ve laid out the groundwork of the Philadelphia 76ers Brain Trust. Now we need to see how those forces shape the future of this team.
Next: Stage One: Upgrade Scouting
Rebuild Restructure Stage One: Upgrade scouting and player assessing.
So where do you start if you are the Sixers? Well, the key to everything at this stage of the plan is player evaluation. And the key to all of that is the Director of Scouting Development Phil Jabour. The Philadelphia 76ers scouting department has not really been taxed in recent years. Besides the NBA draft, the majority of the player transactions have been about who is leaving the team, how much of a salary dump can the team absorb, and how many draft picks can we get in the deal. The fact that it was the combination of Jerry Colangelo and Mike D’Antoni who identified former Sixer point guard Ish Smith as a key element to build the team to a point where other players can be evaluated says more than you might think about the scouting and player analysis of the team as it currently stands.
You see, looking at the history of Jabour, he’s clearly followed Sam Hinkie from the Houston Rockets to the Philadelphia 76ers. He has served in the NBA since 2008 (eight years) and held the following positions:
Director of Scouting Development of the Philadelphia Sixers since 2014-2015 (Hired).
Scout of the Orlando Magic from 2013-2014 to 2013-2014.
Director of Scouting of the Rio Grande Valley Vipers from 2010-2011 to 2010-2011.
Video Coordinator of the Houston Rockets from 2010-2011 to 2010-2011 (Promoted).
Personnel Scout of the Houston Rockets from 2010-2011 to 2010-2011 (Promoted).
Personnel Video Coordinator of the Houston Rockets from 2008-2009 to 2009-2010 (Promoted).
If you see a wealth of NBA experience here, show me where it is. The reality is that, while I have NO doubt that Phil Jabour is a qualified and savvy director of scouting (he’s uncovered some true undrafted and 2nd round gems for Hinkie), there is certainly a vulnerability here when you look at the longevity of the man in an NBA scouting director role. He’s still green in comparison to Colangelo and D’Antoni. So let’s read the thoughts of Jerry Colangelo on the topic:
"“I think that any time you have an opportunity to enhance your organization, and you bring people in to accomplish that, you consider it. Big time. You really do,” Colangelo said. “And I think in our case we have a very bright young guy in Sam Hinkie, who holds the title of president and GM, and in his space he’s really strong. One could build a case for saying you’d like to have more people added who have experience in other aspects of those jobs. That’s the kind of conversation that’s going on. The first step was me being asked to come in, because of my experience, to maybe help and add to the mix. And the question you’re asking is, ‘is there a need or requirement for someone else?’ Maybe. Probably. That’s all being discussed…. I’m just saying adding people to the front office. And that’s not demeaning who we have. You want to be strong. If your goal is you want to be in the Finals… you have to take all the steps required to become that. I’d like to hear people say ‘they’ve got the strongest front office in the league.’ That’s a goal. That’s an objective. So it’s going to require more people to make that happen. That’s all.”"
So there is a perception of reinforcement needed by Colangelo. And what type of reinforcement? Well, the insertion of Mike D’Antoni as assistant to head coach Brett Brown is likely to be repeated. Despite stories whose theme is “Colangelo taking over”, the reality is that Colangelo has been incredibly gracious and supportive of the current forces in the Philadelphia 76ers. He does see a blind spot in the organization. He sees a lot of young passionate professionals working to build a winner in the NBA, but nobody has been there before. So he wants to add voices to the group who HAVE been there before.
The challenge with adding to personnel office is you want to add somebody’s wisdom without derailing the mechanics of the current system, and you want to have a cohesive group who can work well together. It’s a delicate operation, and one that must happen with great care but also great speed. The NBA season ends soon, and to make the right impact in both the draft and free agency, the team will need to add the right voices quickly.
Next: Stage two: Kill Draft
Rebuild Restructure Stage Two: Kill The Draft
It’s more than one player this year. In fact, it could be four. Four players plus two players means this team could have no less than six personnel decisions to make. Who remains? At this point there are few certainties.
But make no mistake. This is not a shotgun draft for the Philadelphia 76ers. This cannot be a “let’s just pick some upside guys and hope that some of them succeed”. This is an important off-season for the team, and likely the time frame for the team to find that one superstar if he is not currently on the roster. In fact, the team is likely banking on two players from the Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel, and Joel Embiid triad to assert themselves as some of the best players in the NBA rather quickly. But to do so, two of the three will either need to score on average somewhere on the order of 26-29 points per game (PPG), shoot at better than 60% accuracy, block over two shots per game (BPG), or rebound over 11 times per game (RPG). Ideally, he would be able to excel in multiple categories.
Right now, Jahlil Okafor is 17.1 PPG, shooting 49.4%, BPG 1.2, and RPG 7.4. That’s excellent for a 19 year old rookie. Nerlens Noel is at 10.8 PPG, shooting 53.3%, BPG 1.6, and RPG at 8.2. That’s not bad for a player who has While neither is likely to achieve the 26-29 points per game, either could achieve the other ranges. So the team could have two of the three spots filled already- if they could co-exist on the court together.
The other wild card on the roster is rehabbing Joel Embiid. While he has been out of basketball for two years, his upside is such that many expect his performance to be the best of the three bigs. Which player will he compliment? Does he have an ability to assume the power forward role in a stretch four capacity, and allow Noel and Okafor the opportunity to focus on establishing themselves at center? Can he enter the league with stats that exceed either that of Okafor or Noel? That’s been the million dollar question, and one that none of the Philadelphia 76ers decision makers are comfortable enough to gamble on, one way or another.
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So who is the elite players in this draft? Well, the most obvious player is the phenom of the 2016 NBA draft, the Louisianna State University wonder Ben Simmons. His offense is already among the best of the NBA, and he’s young enough to improve as time goes on. Defense is certainly an area he needs to focus, but that could come during his first year in the NBA. The big question is not if he has a chance to succeed in the NBA, but at which position?
If the Sixers look at a pure player, then the impact of Duke University Blue Devil point guard Brandon Ingram is tough to ignore. While he may not be a day one elite, his skill set is focused to the back court, an area of tremendous need on the Sixers team right now. The team could also use a latter positioned selection in the first round to select a player like Oklahoma Sooner Buddy Hield, or Gonzaga University Bulldog Kyle Wiltjer, a front court player who could slide to small forward in the Sixers lineup.
In any case, to hit the mark set by Jerry Colangelo, the team needs to hit on a player with a rapid ascent. To achieve the top spot in the NBA, the talent found by the Sixers must truly take on a role of superstar within their second year on the team. That’s not much time. So there is another answer. If the team can identify a player with a steady ascent, and at a skillset which is rare in the NBA, they can use that player as a wager to trade with another team to bring in one from the elite ranks.
But that strategy needs great player development, shortage in the league, and a team willing to do the trade. So what other alternatives exist? Free agency. And that’s why this team may need to bolster the office personnel. That’s simply an area they have not explored in recent years, and even if proficient at one time, they are most certainly out of practice.
Next: Stage Three: Assemble Winners
Rebuild Restructure Stage Three: Assemble Winners Into A Winning Scheme
So we are at the bottom of the NBA today. We have less than a 30% chance of getting the top pick in the 2016 NBA draft, and a 55.8% chance of missing out of getting the Los Angeles Lakers pick in this years NBA draft. So if the team is not selecting Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, or even out of the top three, is the off-season lost?
Not at all. In fact, president and general manager Sam Hinkie has set up the team to manage even in worst-case scenarios where the team misses out of an opportunity to get a top pick by way of several first round picks, combined with rights to swap picks with those of other team, to optimize the odds of ending up in a good place on draft day. But even the multi-layered insular effect of the Sam Hinkie draft options is not perfect. As the team begins to earn wins, they will need to modify the strategy. We’ve highlighted free agency as one of those options.
As the team is now improving, the ability to assess the value of current versus future production becomes incredibly important. What is the lost opportunity cost if the team trades a player like Richaun Holmes to make room for an NBA player whose current production is better, but whose upside is capped much lower? Can this team truly assess how the signing of one well paid free agent would impact the roster of players who had fought through very lean years together and have yet to see the big payday results when the team improves? How much of the current rosters truly feel like family, and how many are simply wading through time looking for a big paycheck with a different zip code?
We’ll find out soon.
In the meantime, there is one last point to explore. Who decides ultimately about signing an NBA free agent?
"“If there’s a pecking order, it’s going to start with ownership and it’s going to funnel down,” Colangelo said.“I don’t think we’re where we might be six months from now. I don’t know.”"
And so, despite the time frame of three years, this is definitely a feeling of “accelerationg” of this process. There is so much yet to do, that its a wonder that Jerry Colangelo would comment to the plan, it’s timeline, and it’s ultimate goal prematurely. But the belief is that he is part motivator, and perhaps believes more in this team than the record might suggest.
Next: Ish Smith Is Not A Star NBA Point Guard
Colangelo’s comments suggest confidence. The variables – Joel Embiid and Dario Saric – coming into the NBA in the high end of expectations would give Colangelo plenty of reason to exhibit that confidence. He also is connected to the best in the NBA talent-wise via his involvement with Team USA. So his eye, judging the talent of players, has a good range of quality players to draw from. Drawing out the future presumes events that have yet to happen and may be beyond the reach of Philly to perform. Signing just the right free agent, releasing the right player at just the right moment. Drafting the key player to help your team, while other teams have selected elsewhere.
It may be that Colangelo is merely planting seeds of hope into a fan base with a shortage of optimism. But that’s just not who Jerry Colangelo is. He is a man who has seen plenty in the NBA, and is wise enough to walk away from a dumpster fire. He not only has stayed, but he now has the team deep in the playoffs within three years.
If instilling optimism was the goal? It’s working. I believe it could happen.