As Philadelphia 76ers Improve, Free Agency Becomes An Option

With an impressive performance on January 20, 2016, the Philadelphia 76ers have won their sixth game of the season. But more telling is their current pace of five wins in their last thirteen games, a pace that could launch them to over twenty wins this season. As Philadelphia 76ers improve, Free Agency becomes a viable option.

Their sixth win, nothing to get elated about, nothing to get disappointed about. It’s not much, just a modest improvement to a team with a long ways to go before post season play enters the discussion. But Philadelphia 76ers fans already know that all too well. They are the patient folk, the fans whose greatest thrill in an NBA season is not what has happened on the court but what happens on draft night. They are future looking, intelligent fans who know that struggle today means a brighter future.

But nobody warned us that the team might be improving this season.

Almost as though the teams fanbase has been sitting in a dark room which suddenly is filled with the bright light of success, we are blinking as one, fighting temporary blindness as we try to discover where we are, as we all adjust to the light.  The team is playing pretty good basketball.  No, they won’t dethrone the Golden State Warriors, and likely will not do well against good team.  But any success is an improvement, and right now the Philadelphia 76ers are improving at a fast pace.

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At one point this season, the team was 1-30.  they are now 6-38.  That is still the last place team in the NBA. But for how long?  It’s not just the fact that the team is winning at a more rapid pace, but the attitude of this team is such that it competes in each game.  That is on the head coach.  Brett Brown has kept the team fighting when all instincts are to lay down and play dead.  That type of head coach is few and far between, and is one of the myriad of reasons that the organization has extended Brown.

Next: Brown Keeps Team Fighting

Brett Brown Keeps Team Fighting

It comes down to the attitude of the head coach. With his positive outlook, the team has not allowed itself to get down. They keep scrapping, competing. Today, that feistiness is paying off.  Today, that festiness is translating into wins, and close losses.  Losing now is not a reason to be down, it’s a reason to go back to the gym, practice and train harder, and use the lessons to factor as an incentive to improve both individually and as a team.

Philadelphia 76ers fans have felt the pain of the losing streak for over three seasons.  The team sinks to the bottom of the NBA but then has a flash of success that places them at about the third or fourth worst team in the NBA.   From there, the Sixers end up with a top five draft pick, but not the top pick.  Prospects who were talented enough to be taken at one who fall due to health issues (Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid) or whose position did not suit the teams picking earlier in the draft (Jahlil Okafor).   But this year was to be different. This was the year with a team’s roster loaded with young talent, with plenty of undrafted players, with one veteran who was injured and joined by four teammates on the injury list to start the season.

All of which resulted in a one win thirty loss start to the season. With that kind of start to the NBA season, the team was most assuredly guaranteed to finish with the worst record in the NBA, and thus reap the most likely chance at scoring the top pick in the upcoming 2016 NBA draft.

But something changed. Point guard Ish Smith happened, and now the team is playing like a team on the rise. A team with a streak of minor success, but enough momentum to carry them into a twenty win finish to the season.  Something clicked.

Next: What About The Draft?

But What About The Draft?

Twenty wins for the Philadelphia 76ers from a one win thirty loss start?   Yes, with their current trajectory, that is where they will end up.  That is not a playoff team, but its enough to thwart the hopeful wishes of a fan base who see the only prize from three miserable seasons as the first draft pick in the 2016 NBA draft.   Anything else will feel like a failure. But is it really?

Sam Hinkie is many things, but it takes a total omission of facts to believe he is not prepared for some success for the Sixers this season. You see, he is not relying upon the draft position of the Philadelphia 76ers in this 2016 NBA draft. He has combined the draft position of the Sixers with the Sacramento Kings, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Miami Heat, the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Golden State Warriors.

The Sixers have their own first round draft pick, but can exchange that pick with the pick of the Sacramento Kings, if they have a better draft position. That translates into a combination of odds when it comes to the NBA draft.  It also helps if the Sixers continue to improve, as they will eventually risk falling out of the top five draft selections.   If Sacramento hits the lottery for a better pick, the Sixers simply exercise the right and switch places.

Secondly, the Los Angeles Lakers pick is ours if it falls out of the top three. Even if the Lakers finish last in the NBA, the Sixers still have a 35.7% chance of getting their pick.   That’s better than a one in three chance of getting the fourth pick in the NBA draft.

It would take a complete free fall of either the Miami Heat or the Oklahoma City Thunder to avoid surrendering their draft picks to the Sixers.  So as of right now, even if the Sixers tear up the second half of this NBA season, they have three first round draft picks to rely upon.  Will they use them all, or consider packaging them for a trade up?  It’s something that the team will consider.

Next: 2016 Roster

2016 Roster

With the team already sitting on a very young roster, the goal should not be the draft but in fighting for every bit of improvement this roster can muster. The team has a bonus in this off-season with Embiid and Saric, so placing too much hopes into one player in the 2016 NBA draft at the expense of this team right now is not the way to go.  Beside that, the team is approaching that fork in the road:  do they pursue the 2016 NBA draft in hopes to maximize their picks and prospects, or does success give them the incentive to forego some of the future potential for more immediate success?

With a slight skew in the win loss record of the team towards winning, the Philadelphia 76ers could definitely do the latter.  You see, the results of Jerry Colangelo’s influence has shown up on this team already:  he was instrumental in bringing Mike D’Antoni in as an assistant head coach, he is logically linked to bringing in point guard Ish Smith at the expense of two second round draft picks to solidify the crucial point guard position, and he’s brought the the team to a point of signing up power forward Elton Brand to serve in a mentor capacity for the young bigs on the team – most importantly center Jahlil Okafor.  From the moment Ish Smith has arrived, young undrafted point guard prospect T.J. McConnell’s game has elevated.  In short, the position most hoped the Sixers would address in the NBA draft has been met, with an undrafted player from the University of Arizona.

This team will get a boost in their roster next season with no draft picks.  That’s the beauty of having Embiid and Saric coming on line for 2016.  It also serves to take all the pressure off the pair of yin/yang strategic forces currently at work for the Philadelphia 76ers – Sam Hinkie’s patient strategy with Jerry Colangelo’s tactical maneuvering.  Will the team focus on a future, or look to today?  Does it really matter?  Well, we know the team has a hot handed Embiid tearing up the gym in practice.

We also know that the team is flush with available cash to spend on free agency, if the team ever improves enough to make that a valid strategy.  Could they if they win twenty or more games this season?   Knowing this roster’s trajectory, conservatively the team should fall into a 30-40 win season next year without factoring in any NBA draft picks.  If the team hits on three or four impact players, that win total could project to the 40-50 win area.   That’s good enough to factor in a top free agent into consideration.

Next: Buy Buy Buy

Buy Buy Buy

The Philadelphia 76ers should strive to succeed this year. If they do, they have more forces in play to excel in the 2016 off-season. How so?  The draft picks of the Philadelphia 76ers are numerous and insulated from the team’s own record.  If they win enough to fall out of a top five pick, they continue to have the rights to swap their first round pick with that of the Sacramento Kings.  They may be able to exercise the right to the Los Angeles Laker’s first round pick if it falls out of the top three.  They also have the rights to the first round pick of both the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Miami Heat.

So if the Sixers go on an unexpected winning streak, their draft is still very solid.

But a season with more wins than anticipated will do wonders for the team in the off-season. If they so choose, the election to pursue top free agents becomes feasible, as the team will appear to be that much closer to post-season competitiveness.   If the team elects the trade option with a willing NBA team, success this year merely serves to highlight the current roster, adds value to our players, and makes a trade that much more likely to result in a favorable outcome for Sixers fans.  It also serves to place this team into a better light, a young team on the cusp of greatness and longevity, which would serve as a remarkable showcase for that one special dominant NBA player to lead a team deep into the playoffs.

But the key to the free agency market begins with cash.  Available cash.   That’s the unspoken truth about the Philadelphia 76ers team under the watch of general manager Sam Hinkie.  The team is flush with available cash.   As Sam Hinkie has stocked the roster with second round and undrafted players, the team has loaded up with team-friendly contracts.   Hinkie learned from the best, as the Houston Rockets have long been known for an ability to sign players to team friendly contracts.   Hinkie has taken that template with him.  The key is his willingness to pay premium prices for uncertain talent.  He offers million dollar multi-year contracts to players whose only other offers come in at the league minimum.  But, and here’s the catch, he guarantees that contract for multiple years with an team option to sever that contract.  So the likes of Robert Covington sign with the Sixers and exceed their price by outplaying their salary, but are locked in on the team for several more years at the team option.

K.J.McDaniel was one such player who did not accept those terms, and became a trade which led to the team acquiring Isaiah Canaan and a second round draft pick.  Well those players who are signed to the Sixers oftentimes do succeed, to the teams good fortune.  Take Robert Covington for example: he is a legitimate NBA player. He’ll make $1 million this year, which is approximately 1/67th of the projected $67.1 million cap. Next year, Covington is scheduled to make about $1.02 million, which is approximately 1/87th of the projected $89 million cap.  In a league where starting small forwards earn in the $4-5 Million dollar range, Robert Covington costs $1 Million.

Where does the extra money go?  Where indeed. That is why agents do not like to deal with the Sixers, yet.

Next: Land Of Opportunity

A Land of Opportunity

Before we go down the path of placing the Sixers organization into an unflattering light, let’s consider the fact that the Sixers afford opportunity to players who likely do not get that opportunity elsewhere. It’s that risk which generates the reward of multi-year contracts. So why don’t NBA teams copy the Sixers organization?

Impatience.  No other team has the fortitude, the patience, and the resolve to endure what this team has endured on this path. National media publicly ridicule the Sixers methods at a hope to drive up their ratings. ESPN Steven Smith proclaimed Philadelphia would be better off without the the 76ers, and encouraged the NBA commissioner to ban the Sixers from playing basketball.  So much for objective basketball analysis from national media.   Far too many have proclaimed that the Sixers have “taken it too far”.

Let’s define what “It” is.   The Philadelphia 76ers have a 15 man roster.  Of that total, 33% of the players were undrafted (Robert Covington, T. J. McConnell, JaKarr Sampson, Ish Smith, and Hollis Thompson).  27% were drafted in the second round (Carl Landry, Richaun Holmes, Isaiah Canaan, and Jerami Grant).   60% of the current starting 76ers roster was not a product of the first round.    So of their current roster, only Carl Landry has the benefit of enjoying an NBA contract based upon his current performance.   Other players signed deals based upon a projected upside.  Hinkie gave those players a premium contract immediately.   You see, much like the teams of the NBA, players in the NBA want to be paid now as well.

Next: Ish Smith Temporary Savior for Sixers

And that’s what gives this Sixer team the advantage.   They are farming, developing, and growing players for the NBA.  The development league is a good alternative, but not all NBA franchise teams have that affiliation, which gives an opportunity for both the player and a team like the Sixers to take the risk on a prospect.   One way to mitigate the success of the Sixers in finding “gems” in the draft would be to expand the NBA draft, and incentivize all NBA teams to align with a developmental league team.  But until the NBA changes the conditions, the Sixers will have success with undervalued talent.

That becomes a huge factor.  As soon as the Sixers turn the corner, they will have plenty of available cash.  With the right free agent, this team can immediately compete.  If the team does not improve rapidly enough, they can sit on their 2016 NBA draft picks. But if they do improve through the end of this season, they can consider a more rapid track to improvement.  In short, as the Philadelphia 76ers improve, free agency becomes a viable option.  You can bet agents and the national media will have a differing opinion of the team when that happens.