Philadelphia 76ers Three Years To Greatness Per Jerry Colangelo
By Bret Stuter
Rebuild Restructure Stage Three: Assemble Winners Into A Winning Scheme
So we are at the bottom of the NBA today. We have less than a 30% chance of getting the top pick in the 2016 NBA draft, and a 55.8% chance of missing out of getting the Los Angeles Lakers pick in this years NBA draft. So if the team is not selecting Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, or even out of the top three, is the off-season lost?
Not at all. In fact, president and general manager Sam Hinkie has set up the team to manage even in worst-case scenarios where the team misses out of an opportunity to get a top pick by way of several first round picks, combined with rights to swap picks with those of other team, to optimize the odds of ending up in a good place on draft day. But even the multi-layered insular effect of the Sam Hinkie draft options is not perfect. As the team begins to earn wins, they will need to modify the strategy. We’ve highlighted free agency as one of those options.
As the team is now improving, the ability to assess the value of current versus future production becomes incredibly important. What is the lost opportunity cost if the team trades a player like Richaun Holmes to make room for an NBA player whose current production is better, but whose upside is capped much lower? Can this team truly assess how the signing of one well paid free agent would impact the roster of players who had fought through very lean years together and have yet to see the big payday results when the team improves? How much of the current rosters truly feel like family, and how many are simply wading through time looking for a big paycheck with a different zip code?
We’ll find out soon.
In the meantime, there is one last point to explore. Who decides ultimately about signing an NBA free agent?
"“If there’s a pecking order, it’s going to start with ownership and it’s going to funnel down,” Colangelo said.“I don’t think we’re where we might be six months from now. I don’t know.”"
And so, despite the time frame of three years, this is definitely a feeling of “accelerationg” of this process. There is so much yet to do, that its a wonder that Jerry Colangelo would comment to the plan, it’s timeline, and it’s ultimate goal prematurely. But the belief is that he is part motivator, and perhaps believes more in this team than the record might suggest.
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Colangelo’s comments suggest confidence. The variables – Joel Embiid and Dario Saric – coming into the NBA in the high end of expectations would give Colangelo plenty of reason to exhibit that confidence. He also is connected to the best in the NBA talent-wise via his involvement with Team USA. So his eye, judging the talent of players, has a good range of quality players to draw from. Drawing out the future presumes events that have yet to happen and may be beyond the reach of Philly to perform. Signing just the right free agent, releasing the right player at just the right moment. Drafting the key player to help your team, while other teams have selected elsewhere.
It may be that Colangelo is merely planting seeds of hope into a fan base with a shortage of optimism. But that’s just not who Jerry Colangelo is. He is a man who has seen plenty in the NBA, and is wise enough to walk away from a dumpster fire. He not only has stayed, but he now has the team deep in the playoffs within three years.
If instilling optimism was the goal? It’s working. I believe it could happen.