Since 2013, the Philadelphia 76ers have not been active in NBA free agency. Not only will that change in 2016, but the Sixers have plenty of cash to make it very interesting.
SHOW ME THE MONEY!
If you have ever seen the movie Jerry McGuire, you see a hollywood version of the back room of professional sports – the business end of the industry where players and agents compete for top dollars from professional sports teams, who in turn are competing with each other to attract the top talent currently not under a contract.
It’s simply economics 101 – supply versus demand.
In any market, the two factors that influence the price is the supply of the commodity, and the demand upon that product. If there is more supply than demand, the prices go down or simply do not rise as quickly. If there is more demand than supply, the prices go up rapidly. The rules apply to orange pulp, barrels of crude oil, toilet paper in a snowstorm, and yes, NBA basketball players.
The reason I am diving into this economics lesson is to bring us all to the same starting point. For the past three years, the market for NBA free agents has had less demand than expected. You see, the Philadelphia 76ers have not participated. There are many reasons for their abstinence, but the common thread is simply that the team was not competitive, was developing undrafted and second round talent, and leaving the team payroll open to the possibility of absorbing expensive contracts of other team players for the all important draft pick compensation.
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But the winds of change are blowing again in Philadelphia. You see, the team has assembled a pretty good cast of talent, both on the roster and projected to arrive via the NBA draft, as well as two bonus players in the form of Joel Embiid and Dario Saric. And then there is the matter of unfinished business at the trade deadline, where the Philadelphia 76ers made a hard push for Atlanta Hawks reserve point guard Dennis Schroder.
All of these moves show that not only is the team turning the corner, but that the team now has a sense of some urgency. It’s clear that, despite the improvements brought to the team by point guard Ish Smith, the front office sees the position as a work in process. The fact that the team made such a hard push to acquire Schroder at the trade deadline is significant in two ways: first in that they are not happy with the overall performance at the point guard position, but secondly, that the team feels that the time to make the improvements is now.
Next: NBA Draft Dilemna
NBA Draft Dilemna
Within months, on May 17,2016, the Philadelphia 76ers will know where they will be selecting in the NBA draft. On that date, the team will also learn how many draft picks they will be making in round one. If everything fell “just so”, the Philadelphia 76ers could be selecting 1, 4, 22, and 27 in the draft. If the Miami Heat struggle at the end of the season, their 22 pick could end up in the top 20.
But the NBA draft, and trades for players, have limits because it depends on what other teams do. There is another option, the free market of the NBA, which is free agency. There the only strings are what the team believes the value of the player to be, versus what the player/agent believes their service is worth. When the two numbers align, the contract is signed and everyone is happy. But the Philadelphia 76ers have shunned that route before, what makes me believe anything will change? Well, the words of head coach Brett Brown for starters.
#Sixers Brown: 'We're definitely going to be in the free agent game.'
— Tom Moore (@TomMoorePhilly) March 9, 2016
Why here? Why now? Synchronization. The team can only develop so many players at once. In this 2015-2016 season, the team has assembled a team comprised of 20-24 year old players , with the exception of 32 year old power forward Carl Landry, recently turned 25 small forward Robert Covington, and three recent acquisitions in 27 year old point guard Ish Smith, 36 year old power forward Elton Brand, and 29 year old shooting guard Sonny Weems.
Ten players on the team with limited experience, and vast upside. That many players need a great deal of coaching, and with the arrival of next season, the demands on the coaching staff will merely increase. Another wave of rookies, another onset of new faces, another roster make-over to such intensity that the team could have more new faces than familiar ones returning. That’s a lot to absorb on one team.
A team must manage many things, and one of the most important factors is the financial aspects. As players outperform their existing contracts, they turn to the next contract opportunity to make up the difference. Fortunately, the Philadelphia 76ers face the loss of just two players: point guard Ish Smith and power forward Elton Brand. Shooting guard Isaiah Canaan will become a restricted free agent, which will give the Sixers an opportunity to match any offers from another team. As a result, this off-season will be focused on building, and not replacing, players.
Next: Free Agency Isn't Free
Free Agency Isn’t Free
The alternate route, now that some of the talent is maturing and coming to fruition, is to augment the players currently developing on the team with veterans (perhaps one or two) who can act both as mentor and as liaison to the young talent. Picture a role on the roster similar to Elton Brand, but with a player who can start and who is one of the league leaders at his position? Now that would be a huge boost to the team that currently scrambles to win a game. That is the avenue the Philadelphia 76ers are now taking.
We’ve discussed the opportunities that free agency avails: could the team sign a quality shooting guard like Bradley Beal, or a even a marquis legendary name like small forward Lebron James? Well, it would have seemed impossible at the beginning of the season. But in the interim, the team has brought on executive Jerry Colangelo, who is as plugged in to the NBA talent as anyone can be. His arrival has changed the direction of the team- both with is commitment to creating a culture to attract top tier talent of the NBA, as well as the commitment to win playoff games in three years.
Both goals are huge stretches from the starting point of where the team is now. But they are achievable, if the team makes use of all of its assets, focuses on the ultimate goal, and uses precision to identify and select the right players to bridge the team from a team filled with developing talent and the team with mature players who are at the peak of their game.
Next: Is Joel Embiid Behind Schedule?
To do so, the team will need to manage the salary cap – another seldom used skill over the past three years. And that is where the market demand will flip the other direction. Per the salary cap analysis of the folks at www.spotrac.com , the Philadelphia 76ers committed salary for the 2016-2017 season stands at a paltry $37,621,226 which gives the team a whopping $51,378,774 to spend. Now we know that the team will be on-boarding as many as four first round drafted prospects, as well as signing up forward Dario Saric. But even with those factored in, the Philadelphia 76ers will be the deepest pockets entering the 2016 NBA free agent market.
You can virtually ignore what you’ve read to date about how agents steer their clients clear of the Sixers. Agents work on a commission, and if the Sixers have the most to spend, you can bet agents will be contacting the team to guage mutual interest. If the agents removed Sam Hinkie’s number from their speed dial, you can bet they have the number of Jerry Colangelo near the top of their list and will not hesitate to call.
Stand back NBA. The time is rapidly approaching for the lion cub to roar. When free agency hits this year, the Philadelphia 76ers will no longer have their lights out. It’s been a long time coming. Will you be ready when it arrives?