Will Philadelphia 76ers NBA Draft Selections Hinge Upon Age?

The Philadelphia 76ers have incubated their roster for three years. But with a core roster now in their early 20’s, does age become the tie-breaker in ranking the Philadelphia 76ers draft board?

We’re covering an NBA team with the worst record in the league this year, but there is hardly a sense of despair here or among the fan base. You see, the Philadelphia 76ers are taking a path long thought to be the best route by a disappointed fan base, but seldom used by an NBA front office because it takes a multi-year commitment. That path is developing a roster simultaneously.  Part of the off-season roster moves are already programmed into the calendar.   We expect that Joel Embiid, a two year rookie who has yet to play an NBA game, will see his first action next season.   We also are anticipating the arrival of internationally acclaimed Dario Saric.  Those two players will give the Sixers a welcome boost before the team even selects from the 2016 NBA draft.

We had prepared our first mock draft board for the Philadelphia 76ers in mid March, and the dynamics of that board have certainly changed since we’ve placed it out for scrutiny.  But knowing that we will be publishing a new “mock draft board” upon the conclusion of the NCAA tournament, what usefulness can we continue to glean from Mock 2016 NBA Draft Board 1.0?

On slide two of the article, we have embedded our top 60 prospects of the NBA draft.  But if you expand that table to reveal all players, and sort on their date of birth, you find an interesting draft board becomes even more interesting.  In fact, here is that table.  Try it for yourself by expanding the options to 100 players and then sort by DOB to reveal the oldest player prospects projected for this year’s draft.

What do you think?

But before we proceed further, let’s step back and go over what the team has experienced this year.  The season began with head coach Brett Brown taking over on a roster with five injured players, six returning players from the previous year, and six undrafted players (Robert Covington, T.J. McConnell, Phil Pressey, JaKarr Sampson, Hollis Thompson, Christian Wood).  While three undrafted players were returning – Covington, Sampson, and Thompson – the development of all six, plus the addition of two rookies in Jahlil Okafor and Richaun Holmes, was simply too much to ask of one man.   Even if you factor in the oversight of the remaining coaching staff, there was simply too much youth and not enough experience on the team to bring everyone along at a fast enough pace to win games quickly.

Next: Great Youth, Great Mentoring

With great youth, comes great mentoring

After the team learned about the dangers of youthful players when Jahlil Okafor experienced some bad judgement off-court, the team became much more proactive.  While Okafor was apologizing for his lapse of judgement, the team had already reached out to venerable NBA expert Jerry Colangelo to come onboard as the Chairman of Basketball Operations.   With the arrival of Colangelo, the executive acted quickly to reinforce the overstretched head coach Brett Brown.  Shortly thereafter, the team announced the hiring of associate head coach Mike D’Antoni.  Now with a pair of coaches, the team acted to build support for their youngest and possibly most important player by signing Elton Brand to play alongside and mentor the young Duke center.

The lessons of this season have been many and painfully precious.

None have born the burden of the three year rebuild as much as head coach Brett Brown, who shared the scope and weight of so much development for so many players.

"I do feel the enormity of it from time to time. I wouldn’t be telling you the truth if I said that I had thought in Year 3, this was the group I’d be coaching. I didn’t realize the roster would play out like it has — that last year would be almost a redshirt year, with Joel Embiid and Dario [Saric]. You only know what you know. I speak freely with my guys. I think they speak freely with me. But I’m sure like any coach or parent of 19-year-olds, stuff goes on that they don’t share with me. I’d be naive to think otherwise.” – head coach Brett Brown as interviewed by ESPN.com’s Zach Lowe"

As much as Brown has been overtaxed with developing so many young players into NBA class contributors, no task has been more consuming than his effort to developing a symbiosis between center/power forward Jahlil Okafor and center/power forward Nerlens Noel.

"“I did a lot of studying over the summer revisiting those (San Antonio) Spur days with (Tim) Duncan and (David) Robinson. We’ve studied a lot of people and different teams lately like Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. There are teams recently that played big ball. I still think it’s going to be a tremendous challenge. Nobody’s saying that we’re convinced that it’s going to be pretty right from the start. There will be times that you’re going to see Nerlens go straight back to that five spot when Jah goes off the floor. It (substituting Noel and Okafor) is a little bit a juggling act on how you’re going to sub it. I think that minutes played for Jahlil — he’s going to have to play 30-plus minutes. Nerlens is going to have to play 30-plus minutes. So, there’s going to be a portion of Jahlil’s minutes that make that five spot available. There are minutes to be had at the five spot. We all know that Nerlens is very capable at the rim blocking shots.”"

But the grand experiment of playing Jahlil Okafor at the center position and Nerlens Noel at the power forward position reversed polarity in mid season, where a curious comment by executive Colangelo appeared to precipitate the change of direction for both players.  It was this event that has amplified the ambiguity of which, if either, current big man remains on the team to join the arrival of center/power forward Joel Embiid.

In any event, the struggles to adapt the glut of big men into on-court advantage in the Sixers favor has been linked, understandably, to the limits of Brown’s one-man-does-it-all role.  With a roster that began the season with a handful of players trying out for the role of point guard, Brown has been given a roster of parts, and has been forced to construct the lineup on the fly practically each and every game out of players handed over to him by president and general manager Sam Hinkie.

Next: Counter Inexperience = Upper Classmen

Counter Inexperience = Upper Classmen

And so the Philadelphia 76ers may have limits to how many more “rookies” they can absorb in any one given year. If they hit on all four draft picks, and if you consider both Embiid and Saric as rookies to the NBA, the team is trying to mentor, train, develop, and “fit” six new players. That is, of course, assuming that the team adjusts the roster in the off-season without the use of trading for other players or signing any free agents, both avenues appear to be subject to much more Sixer traffic this year than at any time in the past three years.

But the team is not forced to burden their coaching staff with the rawest talents available in the NBA draft.  Part of the appeal of the youngest prospects is the “teachability” factor, the belief that by falling onto an NBA roster, surrounded by NBA players, facing NBA competition, and being coached by NBA coaches, the player will develop that much quicker and therefore have a longer NBA career to offer to his team.

But that is a normal team, with a normal composition of age and youth.  With the Sixer roster so very skewed towards the young, the inexperienced young players are remaining somewhat inexperienced.  While they are getting the best opportunity available in the NBA along the lines of support from health, nutrition, and basketball analytics, there remains a strong gap in the translation of what a young player sees and what the young player needs to see.

That difference is made up by the coaching staff and veteran players.   But when the team is filled with young players, there is not enough coach to go around.  Players have been getting on-the-job training to augment their practices and gymnasium work.   No challenge is more exemplary of this practice than the effort to mix and match Okafor and Noel’s play on the court simultaneously.  Even optimistic coach Brown admitted that it has been a slow process of simply placing the pair on the court and letting it sort itself out – in spite of the unattractive moments of basketball that has come with it.

The alternative to that is to target prospects who have been coached well, and already understand the role they will fill in the NBA.  Older players have been given more years of college coaching, and therefore come with a larger database of knowledge upon their arrival to the NBA.   It is by no means a lock guarantee, but it is a step in the right direction, particularly to help out the coach who had so many young and undrafted players to manage this season.

Next: Hield, Dunn, Prince, Jackson, or Trimble

Hield, Dunn, Prince, Jackson, or Trimble

If age truly becomes a factor in the ranking of the Philadelphia 76ers draft board, then one or more of the following players will likely have their name called when the Sixers pick: Buddy Hield, Kris Dunn, Taurean Prince, Demetrius Jackson, or Melo Trimble.  Of this group, we have investigated the strengths and weaknesses of Buddy Hield, we have investigated Kris Dunn in the third slide of the likelihood of picking third for the third year in a row, and we have considered the likelihood of drafting Melo Trimble late in round one.  But we have not discussed either Baylor’s senior small forward Taurean Prince nor Notre Dame’s junior point guard Demetrius Jackson.

With the success of Oklahoma’s advance into the Final Four, I would like to point out the fact that Sixer Sense Jaylen Young identified Buddy Hield two months ago as an underdog heading into the draft.  He rightfully pointed out the value of Hield’s age was a strength.   But that point has been missed with Prnce or Jackson.

Perhaps that oversight occurred because both Prince and Jackson are projected to be selected in the middle of the first round, where Hield and Dunn appear to go early in the first round which coincides to the Sixers pick and with the potential Los Angeles Lakers pick, while Trimble is projected late in the first round which happens to be in the neighborhood for either the Miami Heat pick or that of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

But the Sixers, despite four first round picks, have no picks in the teens in round one.   But that assumes many things, none of which are certainties.

The Sixers could trade down from their own first pick if they miss out on their candidates early in the draft.  Perhaps they will convert their first into a later pick in the first round paired with a first round pick next year.  Perhaps they will move down to load up on second round picks, a round that Sam Hinkie has been very active in his short tenure with the Sixers.   But even if the team does not move, one or more of the five mentioned prospects might fall to the Sixers later in the first round.  With a draft heavier on small back court players, there could very easily be a run on front court big men, leaving the smaller guards and small forwards to fall to the Sixers late in round one.

Next: Jackson

Demetrius Jackson

Notre Dame junior point guard sensation likely would have been a first round pick in the 2015 NBA draft, but he opted to remain at school through his junior season.  It was this time a year ago that Sixer Sense’s own Patrick Koerbler picked up on the potential of the Notre Dame guard, predicting him as a likely lottery pick prospect,  grouping him with Providence point guard Kris Dunn and showing him ahead of Melo Trimble.

While Dunn has used the extra year to enhance his upside, Jackson has not won over the hearts of scouts with similar fashion. But that is not to say that he is not a lottery pick.  It’s just that his value has not risen as quickly in the opinion of many NBA analysts and scouts.

OFFENSE
Strengths

You would assume that an older prospect would have more polish, and Jackson does not disappoint in that regard.  He is versatile on offense, and has proven this year he can pass the ball around on the assist or simply keep the ball and take the shot.  He is proficient in pick-and-rolls, and he’s a fluid creator out of this set, both for himself and teammates. He is adept at drawing defenders in with penetration and kicking to open teammates. He has assumed the lead in Notre Dame’s offense, and his court vision and hands have helped him excel in an NBA-style offense.  He also doesn’t make many mistakes with the ball, as he averages just 2.2 turnovers per 40 minutes. But ball security is just one aspect of his game, as he’s a crafty finisher around the basket.  Despite his small stature, he’s a strong player who doesn’t mind attacking the rim off the bounce.

Weaknesses

Jackson has demonstrated an ability to pass the ball to the open man, but has not shown the same expertise as that of a Ben Simmons or a Kris Dunn.  It will be an area he will need to continue to address in the NBA.  He is also not quite perfected his perimeter shot, as he has drawn more attention from the defense even at long range.  He had attempted to compensate by increasing his shooting frequency, but that has only compounded the matter.

DEFENSE
Strengths

Jackson has a remarkably blood-hound like nature when defending the ball.  He’s good at defending the pick-and-roll, and he has great technique fighting through screens and trailing the opposing ball-handler: He makes great use of his overall quickness, and can maintain proximity to the ball for long periods of time.

Weaknesses

Jackson’s size has limited his defensive contribution, and his lower than optimum wing span has prevented him from being considered elite in this area. Adding to this, when he can fixate on the ball, his instincts are good.  But when defending away from the ball, he shows mental lapses and loses the action.  But that is par with Notre Dame’s team defense.

Jackson shows up early in the middle of the first round in most mock drafts, but there will be many restatements of prospect order between now and draft night.

Next: Prince

Taurean Prince

If you don’t know anything else about the Baylor senior, you will immediately recognize the young man who gave a lesson to reporters who wanted to know how Yale outrebounded the Baylor Bears in the NCAA tournament. Explaning an upset is never a comfortable position to be in, but Prince clearly is at the top of his sarcasm game when he flippantly narrates the mechanics of a basketball rebound to the chagrin of a room filled with media.

OFFENSE
Strengths

At 6’7’’, possessing a strong 215 pound frame with long arms, and very good lateral quickness, Prince’s physical tools gives him the offensive prowess to finish strong in the neighborhood of the basket.  He has deceptive speed , which will be a key ingredient as a transition threat. He boasts a good spot up shoot, with considerable range, where he had shot 40% from beyond the arc on 3.9 attempts per game.   He’s excellent spotting up in the corner and leads Baylor in scoring despite coming in off the bench.  Per 40 minutes he’s averaging 19 points per game, and 8.8 rebounds. He’s incredibly productive when he’s in the game, and he’s well above average in terms of rebounding for an NCAA small forward.

Weaknesses

Prince  is not a marquis ball handler, although he can respond to pressure by making good decisions.  He has limits to creating his own shots, and relies upon floor spacing to get openings to shot. His foul shot has fallen to 63.2% this season, which is sub par for an NBA wing.  He also needs to work on and expand his mid range shot options.  His success on  mid-range jumpers has remained at just 27.1% accuracy

DEFENSE
Strengths

Prince is blessed with excellent defensive instincts and intensity, which gives some degree of confidence that he can guard both shooting guards, and a large portion of small forwards at the NBA level . Despite the zone defense of Baylor, Prince still manages to block 1 shot and steal the ball 1.2 times in only 25.5 minutes per game.  He also has a high defensive IQ projects him as a capable defender in the much different man to man heavy landscape of the NBA.

His defensive ability alone gives a great deal of intrigue into projecting him onto the Sixers roster, as wing defense has been a thorn in their side this season.

Weaknesses

Prince has played his collegiate career in Baylor’s zone focused defense.  While he projects as capable in an NBA man defense, that will require some patience and retraining.   He does not look to come to the Philadelphia 76ers as an immediate starter, but he could fit a niche role as a very productive 3 and D wing man.  Whether that role is valuable enough to the Sixers to burn a first round pick on his talents remains to be seen.

Prince is projected to be available early in the second half of the first round.  But should he fall even slightly, he may become an option of the Philadelphia 76ers in that first round.

Next: Sixer's Summation

The Sixer’s summation

And so, the five prospects may take on more significance than first imagined. But upon what do I attribute this? Well, we know that it had required a significant effort to bolster the team’s ability to handle so many young men simultaneously, a point Brett Brown has admitted on may occasions. You see, this team is at the forefront of player development, far and away more invested than any other team in the league. And for the first half of the season, the man solely responsible for the player’s outlook and growth fell upon Brown.

"“Where do I begin?,” said Brown on Saturday morning, following the Sixers’ shoot-around at Moda Center. “It is so ever-present all over the place, just like it would have been for all of us if you said you’re 18 or 19 and now you’re 22 [years old]. hink about college paths, how things change in your head, and your body, and your mind in the games. And I see it with those two (Portland Trail Blazers guard duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum), versus like when Nerlens [Noel] first came in, or Jahlil [Okafor] first came in.” – Brett Brown as interviewed by Brian Seltzer of Sixers.com"

The value of staying in school longer also resonated with current starting point guard Ish Smith, who echoed some of the same sentiments as that of his head coach:

"“Being in school four years, and really learning the game really helps you out. A great coach in [former Wake Forest head coaches ]Skip Prosser and Dino Gaudio, and [Wake Forest assistant] Jeff Battle were unbelievable in teaching us the game of pick-and-rolls, and how to run a team and stuff like that. It really, really does help. And it prepares you for this, and the NBA, running a team, running older guys, telling them on the floor and different things like that. So it does prepare you, and it helps you a lot.  The crazy thing about me is, shoot, I haven’t even touched the tip of the iceberg.  I think it just depends.  You look at (Portland Trailblazer point guard) Damian Lillard.  He stayed four years.  He’s just now kind of tipping the iceberg how good he can be.  (Portland Trailblazer shooting guard) C.J. (McCollum) stayed four years, and it took him two or three years to get rolling out on the floor.  To me, it doesn’t matter if you come out two years or four years, it’s how much time you put in, and how much better you get.  If the guy can play, he can play.  He’s going to develop and get better.  It’s just how much time he puts in it.” ” – Ish Smith as interviewed by Brian Seltzer of Sixers.com"

In the face of coaches and players who value the maturity of an upperclass prospect, and with the additional complication of overcapacity if the Philadelphia 76ers try to bring on too many young men simultaneously, Trusting The Process may be facing its first true hurdle: a limit to how young the team can go and how often it may do so.  Now this is not to say that the Philadelphia 76ers will skip any chance at either Brandon Ingram or Ben Simmons if they are picking first or second in the 2016 NBA draft.  But it does correlate the fact that the team has core players in the 20-22 age range.   Only T.J. McConnell at age 24, Hollis Thompson at age 24, and Robert Covington at age 25 are likely to have the opportunity to play for the Sixers beyond next year.

Next: Could Sixers land at 3 3 years in a row?

So with that being the landscape, and the team finds two prospects of nearly identical skillsets, but one at age 19 and another at age 21, it would not surprise me in the least to expect the team to lean more towards the maturity of a 21 year old this year.  You see, the team must be very careful who they add to the roster going forward.  Building a winner depends on cohesion, and cohesion depends on the maturity of the roster.  While there is no evidence to cite the NBA outcomes versus age of NCAA hopefuls, there is the lingering experience of the Sixers in trying to mentor so many this year which could drive the team towards the older prospects.