The Sixer Sense
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NBA Draft Lottery: Philadelphia 76ers Odds

By Josh Wilson

Jun 25, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; General view of the full first round draft board at the conclusion of the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 25, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; General view of the full first round draft board at the conclusion of the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
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The bad

Dec 7, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; A fan holds a sign at the conclusion of a game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the San Antonio Spurs at Wells Fargo Center. The Spurs won 119-68. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 7, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; A fan holds a sign at the conclusion of a game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the San Antonio Spurs at Wells Fargo Center. The Spurs won 119-68. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /

It’s not all good for the Sixers. Over the last few years, despite having pretty bad records, the Sixers have had little luck with the ping-pong balls, never drafting better than third overall. Luck definitely has not been in their favor, but this is the first season that they have secured the worst record, which is a surprising fact to some.

This year is a year that they need to have a better outcome, since the top two picks are players that could be real superstars moving forward. If they fall to three, there isn’t a whole lot that’s in their control, and they may be forced to take a player that could end up being a bust.

The worst possible lottery scenario is that the Sixers get the fourth overall pick in the lottery only. The Sixers, if they just get number four, may have to trade up if they really want to rebuild through this year’s draft. This may lead to a premature shipping out of players like Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel.

If they keep the fourth pick for themselves, there isn’t a whole lot they can do with it, and will be at the mercy of the three teams before them, because those prior three teams will have taken most, if not all of the Sixers top prospect choices.

The only way this scenario can happen is if none of the Sixers’ 250 combinations, or the Kings’ 28 are drawn in the three four-number drawings. The Sixers actually have a higher chance of getting just the fourth pick than they do the first pick.

Odds of this scenario: 35.7%

A little worse than just the fourth overall pick is just getting the third overall pick. This is pretty much the same concept as just the fourth, in a draft that’s been called a two-player draft. The best options will have been taken, and the Sixers will have to settle for a lesser player.

After Simmons and Ingram have been taken, it’s kind of a “well, what do we do with this?” situation.

The Sixers could still take an impactful player like Kris Dunn or Jamal Murray with the third pick, though, so it’s not all bad, but it would still be an incredibly disappointing lottery outcome.

Odds of this scenario: 17.8%

Next: The neutral scenarios