In Part 3 of a 3 Part Series, We Examine The NBA Draft Choices of Bryan Colangelo
The Philadelphia 76ers are set up for the 2016 NBA draft. In a best case scenario, there is the chance that the team could land the first and fourth overall pick in this draft, in addition to the 24th and 26th picks. In a worst case scenario, the team merely walks away with the fourth, the 24th, and the 26th pick. But even in the worst case, the team could refit the entire lineup, as they will also be getting the services of front court prospects center/power forward Joel Embiid and forward Dario Saric.
But the picks are simply that, potential for players from the NCAA or International basketball leagues. The NBA draft is the embodiment of random chance, whose forces make or break NBA careers. Well, the NBA draft and its NBA machinations – the NBA lottery.
It can be argued, rather successfully, that if the lottery had been the least bit favorable to Sam Hinkie in his three years with the Philadelphia 76ers, he would still be calling the shots for the team. At virtually every turn, the lottery seemed to fall against the Sixers. In a four season period, the Cleveland Cavaliers were mysteriously blessed with three of four potential first selections from the coveted NBA draft – odds that are almost impossible to fathom. In fact, it was not until LeBron James returned to his former team, that the Cavaliers returned to the playoffs and fell out of the NBA Lottery.
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In stark contrast, the Philadelphia 76ers, despite multiple opportunities during Sam Hinkie’s tenure, could draft no better than third. In most NBA drafts, there are typically one or two clear potential superstars. It’s as though the NBA rigged the odds to ensure Hinkie would never be rewarded for his efforts with the Philadelphia 76ers.
But this is a new chapter, a chapter of Bryan Colangelo’s writing. So far, the team has build up their front office and has begun the painstaking process of laying the foundation of their direction through a series of interviews. In those interviews, the strategy was pretty much laid bare for all to see. But in addition to the overall theme of this draft, there continues to be an echoing message that this team will be making significant strides to adding age to the roster.
But aging the roster requires either trading with other NBA teams or signing free agents. We had looked at Colangelo’s track record in NBA trades in part 1 of a 3 part series. We then scoured the historic records to determine Colangelo’s track record of NBA free agent signings in part 2 of a 3 part series. In this narrative, we take a look at Colangelo’s track record of NBA drafts. Thankfully, we have saved the best for last. Let’s get to work here, as I think some of you may need a “pick me up”.
Next: 2006 NBA Draft
2006 NBA Draft
The Toronto Raptors were a pretty bad team when Bryan Colangelo arrived, having just finished a 27-55 record. Fortunately, that translated into the Toronto Raptors selecting first in the that year’s draft, which allowed Bryan Colangelo to augment Chris Bosh with the best of the NCAA, at least from his perspective.
2006 Draft first round – 1
Who They Chose: 6′ 10″ Italian center/power forward Andrea Bargnani was the player selected by Bryan Colangelo. While the team already had power forward Chris Bosh, the team selected Bargnani to slide up to the five role. In the year prior to the draft, he had averaged 11.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.4 blocks and 1.2 steals per game in 21.7 minutes in Italy’s Lega A competing for Benetton Treviso, shooting 57,8% on two-pointers and 36.9% from three-point range. In Euroleague (EL) competition, contributed 10.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 0.9 steals per game, shooting .55.8% on two-pointers and 43.4% from three-point range. In EL play, posted a season-high of 20 points twice, against Panathinaikos and Strasbourg, over 18 games. His draft projection included these strengths: “very good athleticism for a player of his size. Very skilled offensive player with a lot of solutions to score: shoots well from any distance, hits the three with good accuracy, can beat his defender off the dribble and finish a fastbreak after running the court well. Fluid shooting mechanics. Has a quick release.”
Mock Draft Consensus: Initially confusion due to no true standout, but near draft day consensus was Bargnani.
Best Pick Available: Point guard Rajon Rondo – while originally picked 21st in this draft by the Phoenix Suns, speculation of Rondo paired with Chris Bosh certainly gives pause to speculation just how good the Raptors might have become as a result.
Overall Grade: Average – Toronto selected the consensus number one, who had gone on to produce seven solid seasons for the Toronto Raptors – peaking in the 2010-2011 season where he averaged 21.4 points per game on average playing time of 35.7 minutes per game with 5.2 rebounds per game and .7 blocks per game.
2006 Draft second round – 5 (35th Overall)
Who They Chose: 6’6″ Small Forward P.J. Tucker – Tucker was a Texan wing who arrived raw to the team and did not last a full season. By January 2007, he was assigned to the Raptors development team – the Colorado 14ers. He was recalled in February 2007, only to be reassigned to the D-League affiliate a month later. After playing six season internationally, he worked his way into the Phoenix Suns summer league, and has subsequently been signed to a three year deal with the Suns.
Mock Draft Consensus: Paul Milsap
Best Pick Available: Power forward Paul Milsap was still available. Milsap would have been a dynamite player to slide to the three as well as picking up minutes while the team rested Bosh
Overall Grade: Fail. Despite it being a second round pick, Tucker was too raw to stick on the roster for a season.
2007 Draft
The Toronto Raptor did not have a draft pick available in the 2007 draft – having traded their second round pick in October 1997 to the Portland Trailblazers. Later, the Toronto Raptors had traded their first round draft pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers in September 2002 for Lamond Murray
Next: 2008 Draft
2008 Draft
2008 Draft first round – 17 (TRADE)
Who They Chose: 7′ 2″ center Roy Hibbert, who was immediately packaged in a major trade with the Indiana Pacers along with T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, and Maseo Baston for Jermaine O’Neal and Nathan Jawai. The pick of Hibbert was a very good pick, albeit for the Indiana Pacers benefit.
Mock Draft Consensus: DeAndre Jordan
Best Pick Available: DeAndre Jordan
Overall Grade: Excellent. The trade aspect of this selection is already graded in part 1 of the 3 part series. But the value of finding a needle in a haystack at 17 is no less than an excellent choice. The other available center DeAndre Jordan, has enjoyed a career similar to Hibbert. Unfortunately, the Pacers received the benefit of this pick.
2009 Draft
2009 Draft first round – 9
Who They Chose: DeMar DeRozan – Shooting guard DeMar DeRozan was originally projected to the Minnesota Timberwolves at six, but fell into the Raptors lap at nine. He was one of six prospects who invaded the NBA and later appeared as an NBA All-Star with such names as: Jrue Holiday, Blake Griffin, James Harden, Stephen Curry, and Jeff Teague. DeRozan was thrust into the rotation his rookie season, where he scored 8.6 points per game on 21.6 minutes. His second season showed marked improvement, where he improved to 17.2 PPG on 34.8 minutes per game. He has remained a solid starter and contributor for the Raptors.
Mock Draft Consensus: Small Forward Raymar Morgan
Best Pick Available: DeMar DeRozan
Overall Grade: Excellent. The young man from the University of Southern California has carved out an impressive career for the Toronto Raptors, and continues to help them to compete in post season play even to this day.
Next: 2010 Draft
2010 Draft
2010 Draft first round – 13
Who They Chose: Ed Davis. Center/power forward Ed Davis was a big man who was hampered by injuries. On draft day, he was projected off the board at nine. As he was considered a top ten talent, most experts considered this one of the steals of the draft. where most had him placed in the top 10. He was a solid player, albeit as a center off the bench, but became part of the package dealt to the Memphis Grizzlies along with Jose Calderon on January 2013 for Rudy Gay and Hamed Haddadi.
While Rudy Gay was a coveted player, he was only Raptor for the remainder of that season before being flipped to the Sacramento Kings in a seven player trade for Quincy Acy. Gay was an offensive small forward who scored 19.5 PPG for the Raptors. But his contract was slated for $20 Million for the next year, far in excess of the production the team was getting.
Mock Draft Consensus: Cole Aldrich
Best Pick Available: Ed Davis (but to be honest, all the impact players were long gone from the board by the time the Raptors Selected)
Overall Grade: Above Average. Colangelo made the best of a difficult position in this draft. Curiously, that led to obtaining a huge scorer in Rudy Gay, the team struggled with the salary cap of the hyper-inflated contract.
Next: 2011 Draft
2011 Draft
2011 Draft first round – 5
Who They Chose: Jonas Valanciunas – Lithuanian center Jonas Valanciunas fell into their lap after Cleveland unexpectedly took Brampton’s Tristan Thompson at four. Toronto fans were hoping for back court help with the pick and had their hearts set on either guards Kemba Walker or Brandon Knight. While not a prolific post scorer, he has delivered solid defense and modest offense for the Raptors.
Mock Draft Consensus: Guard Brandon Knight
Best Pick Available: Shooting guard Klay Thompson
Overall Grade: Above Average. Valanciunas is a solid piece to the Toronto Raptors roster, and continues to improve each year. However, with a draft board that had small forward Kawhi Leonard, shooting guard Jimmy Butler, point guard Isaiah Thomas, or shooting guard Klay Thompson available, one has to wonder if any of the other options might have salvaged Colangelo’s career.
2012 Draft
2012 Draft first round – 8
Who They Chose: Terrance Ross – shooting guard/small forward Terrance Ross . The Raptors tried to repair the miss at bolstering the back court the previous year with the choice to add the wingman from the University of Washington. The pick felt like a reach at the time, and history has proven that to be the case. Ross earned spot duty in his rookie year, and was given more responsibility on the team after Colangelo resigned. His production has never kicked into a solid starting role.
Mock Draft Consensus: power forward/center Andre Drummond
Best Pick Available: Andre Drummond
Overall Grade: Below average. Once more, the team had a chance to enhance the starting lineup, but settled for a solid reserve.
Next: Grading Colangelo Drafts
Grading Colangelo Drafts
In recent months, I’ve had many occasions to read pretty negative stories about the Sam Hinkie era of the Philadelphia 76ers, most of which focused on his drafting which seldom resulted in immediate impact players. I find those types of arguments insulting to anyone of intelligence.
In my review of Bryan Colangelo’s drafting acumen while with the Toronto Raptors, I found reason for optimism. While there is always plenty of room to second guess anyone’s draft selections after the fact, Colangelo appeared to stay true to his scouting reports, appeared to take advantages of the NBA draft board if a coveted player fell to him, and seldom went way out on a limb to go against the grain.
His best career selection while with the Toronto Raptors was definitely the 2009 draft pick of DeMar DeRozen, a shooting guard who has paired up with point guard Kyle Lowry to form one of the better back court duos in the NBA to this day. It was Bryan Colangelo who finally got it right on the back court, and that is the area of greatest need for the Philadelphia 76ers right now. One of the challenges of the Toronto Raptors for Colangelo seemed to be pairing players to retain the interest of his inherited star power forward Chris Bosh.
The Philadelphia 76ers have no such established star as of yet, and if the overall organization can temper Bryan Colangelo’s unbridled enthusiasm of acting first and asking questions later, I think the potential four first round draft choices are in very good hands. If the Sixers do land the Los Angeles Lakers pick at either four or five, I expect Colangelo will have a strong educated guess which prospect will work best there. If the Sixers fall out of the top two, I am equally confident that Bryan Colangelo will salvage the draft with a good selection. Even the 24th and 26th picks of this NBA could produce talented prospects, albeit if the team elects to exercise those picks rather than trade them away.
Next: Trusting The New Process
Trusting the New Process
Now that we have examined the historic track record for NBA trades in part one, as well as the free agent history in part two, we have a substantially positioned the tendencies of the new Philadelphia 76ers president. He performs poorly in haste, and under pressure, both conditions are definitely entrenched with his new role with the Phildelphia 76ers. But there is a glimmer of hope.
The Philadelphia 76ers are set up to maximize a patient strategic plan, which if Bryan Colangelo can resist diving in headfirst to “fix the roster” will give him plenty of leeway to improve this team. Rather than try to repeat his instant success with the Raptors, and then spend the rest of his tenure trying to swing for the fences to do that initial year one better, he can lead a serious three year plan here by remaining within the strengths of the team right now:
(1) Focus On Draft – Despite the call to get the roster older, that is one of the worst objectives in modern day sports. Age is no improvement, its just older and more expensive. Since the team has up to four picks, and potentially two in the top five, the new executive should invest Day and Night exploring the draft scenarios, and matching up what will be there for the team with what will improve the team most dramatically.
(2) Key on Back Court In Free Agency – If the team needs to improve the roster with more seasoned veterans, then stick to the back court. The team could be sitting on as many as two NBA superstars in the front court already, and the only way to determine that is to upgrade the perimeter defense and offense. The team can mitigate overextending by focusing on shorter premium pay contracts to avoid the salary cap purgatory, the graveyard whereColangelo had buried the Raptors.
(3) If Sixers Must Trade, Be Wise and Disciplined – No NBA team will surrender quickly to the Philadelphia 76ers trade demands this off-season. The desperation of the Sixers ownership is common knowledge now, and the only deals teams will willingly transact will likely be one-sided in their favor. So we don’t do them. Eventually, after the the teams assess their draft and off-season acquisitions, some playoff hopeful team will bend a little, if not outright break down. The Sixers are overflowing with young quality depth players, and that could be useful for a team seeking to drive deep into post season.
Colangelo can master the NBA draft. Colangelo is pretty average in NBA trades, but that percentage of success increases if he focuses on small gains, not home runs. But in the realm of free agency, he needs help. The value of salary dollars committed to players is not a strong suit, and must therefore come from others in the organization which only require his rubber stamp approval. Thankfully, the Sixers have gobs of cash, a busload of youth, and a basket of draft picks this year.
Next: Sixers Trading For Lakers Picks Scenarios
The best strategy for Bryan Colangelo? Patiently measured steps this year to focus on 2017 for the playoff designed team. Swallow the pride of trying to show the NBA that he is better than Sam Hinkie. Work with the strengths of the team now for the betterment going forward. If he does, he can pull off something his father never did. He can contribute to an NBA championship.