Despite the Detractors and Decriers, the 2016 NBA Playoffs Prove that NBA Centers Are Still A Key Piece To An NBA Championship
Placing a “For Sale” sign on two of the potential star NBA centers of the Philadelphia 76ers has drawn more interest from fans and pundits alike than placing a saucer of milk on the porch is to stray cats.
Everybody wants some.
This is the same group of centers that these same persons scoffed at, ridiculed the former general manager of the Sixers for drafting because the claims came in that the center position of the NBA was a dinosaur, an antique, a throwback to the days of yesteryear that simply could not keep pace with the modern NBA teams.
I believe the story of the demise of the NBA center is premature.
Yes, the Golden State Warriors have evened up their series with the Oklahoma City Thunder to the point where they can advance. The reason? The Golden State Warriors ABANDONED their small ball lineup and tossed big men onto the floor, a strategy that has enabled them to win two playoff games and tie up the series.
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Where are you now, decriers of Sam Hinkie and his strategy of stockpiling centers?
*crickets*
You see, every team knows the key to continued success in this NBA is to have a solid post game. In the end, big wins. And that is why Hinkie was always too happy to select a center in the NBA draft, repeatedly.
He understood that eventually, the phone would ring and another NBA team would be required to pay a premium to obtain one of the Philadelphia 76ers’ centers.
The first public announcements of current team president of Bryan Colangelo keyed in repeatedly on the issue of the team in need of veterans, and referring to the Philadelphia 76ers as an “asset farm”. It’s obvious he hasn’t an inkling of what the strategy has been all along.
The key to any successful strategy: whether military, business, political, or simply professional sports, is to secure rare assets early in the campaign. In military, that translates into air superiority. In business, its claiming ownership to raw materials. In politics, its the states with the most votes. In sports, it’s the position that is the key to winning. In baseball, you go pitching. In hockey, goalie. In football, you go franchise quarterback.
In basketball, you go center.
Next: The Real Strategy
The Real Strategy
Now, I have not had a heart to heart conversation with Bryan Colangelo, and even if I did, his awareness of what he tells me ends up in this article would prevent him from revealing the truth of his intentions to me – or to any media right now.
The only facts we can rely upon today is the track record of Bryan Colangelo. In my three part expose, I investigated the pattern of his moves in Toronto.
In part I, we examined his moves of trades among other NBA teams. We examined his willingness to engage multiple players and trade picks for players in a hope to recapture their former magic. His pattern of trades can be reviewed in the link above.
In part II, we looked at his history of free agency retention or signings. This article did a deep dive into the Colangelo willingness to share the wealth. The results were concerning, as the free agency strategy appears to have been completely reactionary or whimsical, and did not pass the litmus test of recognizable strategy needed to be a team builder.
In part III, we looked at his NBA draft history and how he used his limited options in the NBA draft. We looked at where he focused those picks.
While the points certainly do not lead you to a unanimous consensus, I believe the key element with significance is the fact that his first pick of the 2006 NBA Draft was used on 6′ 10″ Italian center/power forward Andrea Bargnani. Colangelo immediately made Bargnani the center to pair with then power forward Chris Bosh. Clearly the center is a position Bryan Colangelo values.
So why give the green light to moving the center? How do you start bidding wars? How do you get teams to react to the moment, versus dictate the terms? You start the bidding process. In that auction like environment, while we sit back and determine what the value is, the true market makers are setting the price of any of the two centers out of our earshot.
But ultimately, it’s the value that resides in the mind of Bryan Colagelo which is the ultimate value. I would not believe any of the current Philadelphia 76er centers go at a discount before this NBA draft. Colangelo is uncovering who are potential trading partners down the road, information which may become quite valuable as the 2017 NBA trade deadline approaches
Next: Sixers Center Dilemma
The Sixers Center Dilemma
The Philadelphia 76ers franchise has a long and lauded history of NBA success. Whether the team was being led by Allen Iverson, or “Doctor J” Julius Erving, the team never truly realized its destiny until the team found a center.
For Erving, the search went on for years until the team landed former Houston Rocket Moses Malone. In 1983, that championship run was one of the best NBA teams in history.
For Allen Iverson, the big man in the post was none other than our NBA lottery prognosticator, Dikembe Mutombo. While they only made it as far as the NBA championship series, the key to that success was that the Sixers finally had a center to aid their shooting star – Iverson.
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And there’s the rub. In both cases, incredible talent at all other positions were thwarted time and again because the team could not control the post in the post season. Many of the follies of previous regimes occurred from the realization that centers win NBA championships. The disaster of trading for former Los Angeles Lakers center Andrew Bynum was driven out of the desperation of the team to make the attempt to land a key piece of the lineup to build around. Instead, the move crippled the franchise, burying the team in the desolation of a player who simply could not take the basketball court. Wasted salary, wasted picks, wasted opportunity.
That brought Sam Hinkie here in 2013.
While so many point to the basketball court, scoff, and ridicule the man for “wasting” so many draft picks on the center position, lets review what really happened in the past three years. With the exception of Karl Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingas, the Philadelphia 76ers have acquired the services of three of the top five prospects at the center position in the past three years. 60% of the best of the NBA big man prospects.
I don’t think the team will be making desperation trades for a center in the near future.
Next: Known versus Unknown
The Unknown Versus The Known
There is wisdom in acknowledging failure, and limits of knowledge. One or two years of NBA history are not a projection of where a player will end up in his NBA career. It’s an indication, it certainly defines the strengths and weaknesses of a player. But the player’s ultimate perfomance is a compilation of his own talents, his work ethic, his attitude, the talents of his teammates, and his scheme.
Nothing less than that is accurate.
In the 2015-2016 season, the Philadelphia 76ers were a very bad, young, poorly constructed, undermanned and often injured team. They won a mere ten games.
But there are far too many launching Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor from the misconception that their NBA careers are busts. Let’s see what we can do about tapping the brakes on that concept.
While the initial experience of Noel and Okafor was not stellar, there are valid reasons why optimism for the pair can coexist, and even flourish, with the addition of Joel Embiid.
Hoops Habit
Point I – Stabilize the point guard position. It starts with the field general – whether that is the true point guard or the introduction of point forward Ben Simmons this season, the team will have a better handle at ball distribution this season. With better distribution and decision making up front, the team will be able to settle into their roles more easily going forward. Last season, the team did not truly settle the point guard position until after Christmas, when Ish Smith arrived and T. J. McConnell began to excel in a backup role. That initial confusion at the point guard position percolated the poor decisions of Jahlil Okafor off court, and set the roster of very young players into a season opening tail spin.
Point II – End the experimentation. With a roster that was crippled to open and end the season, many players were drafted to roles on the floor which they held no previous experience. There was also the prolonged and painful attempts by the Philadelphia 76ers trying to find a way to get both Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor on the basketball court at the same time. Initially Okafor played the five and Noel played four, but after the February 2nd interview of Jerry Colangelo where the elder Colangelo named Noel a “rim protector”, the team mysteriously did an about face and move Okafor to the four – a position he had never played before – and returned Noel to the five.
Point III – Play 15 healthy players. Few discuss the Philadelphia 76ers undermanned roster in the past two seasons of carrying a rehabilitating Joel Embiid on their payroll, but the net effect was the team only began with 14 players. Through the course of the year, injuries occur with bruises, pulls, strains, sprains, and yes, sometimes concussions, which require next man up management of the lineup. At the beginning and the end of the season, the Philadelphia 76ers struggled to have ten or more players suited and ready to play. Compounding this matter was the additional challenge of players who started or played key roles for the team who were given minutes restrictions. I’m in favor of managing players health in that style of aggressive oversight, but it has a tremendously adverse effect on the team, who must now manage game minutes with fewer bodies to share the burden.
Point IV – We do not fully know what we have at center. We may be sitting on three NBA All-Stars in three years. 22 year old Nerlens Noel is the “veteran” of the group, now entering his third season of NBA play. He has been lauded for his defensive prowess in his first two years of the NBA, but his scoring has improved from 9.9 to 11.1 points per game, and trending toward 15-18 PPG in two years.
From the opposite direction, we have the skill set of 20 year old first year center Jahlil Okafor, who had everyone sitting up and taking notice of his incredible ability to score near the basket. At 17.5 points per game and shooting at a clip better than 50% from the floor, his first year was impressive enough to compete with statistics of NBA veterans of many years, and he’s just getting started. Top scoring center DeMarcus Cousins, who averaged 26.9 points per game, only mustered 14.1 PPG in his rookie season. While much is made of Okafor’s rebounding at 7.0 rebounds per game, Cousins only pulled down 8.6 in his rookie year. But in his career, he continued to improve in both areas, and there is not logical reason to believe Jahlil Okafor will do otherwise in his career.
Finally, we have the mysterious potential of 22 year old rookie center Joel Embiid, who has yet to step onto a basketball court, but who impresses everyone so much that even NBA seasoned executives walk away believing that the young man can truly be somebody special. And in a field of these three, to be singled out as “somebody special” is truly a compliment.
Next: NBA Starters
NBA Starters
While the argument to balance the roster is a valid objective, we need to pause a moment here. The goal cannot be “let’s thin the herd” at center no matter how we feel about the log jam at the position. The fact is that we have three very young and inexpensive players who are considerable assets in the modern NBA.
The common goal of all of us is to improve the team. How we get there is up to Bryan Colangelo and the front office staff he has surrounded himself with. Based on the 2015-2016 experience, it cannot be another year of rookie roster only, and that’s clear.
But it’s both naive and premature to rush into dealing one of the three centers just for the sake of dealing one. Driving away from something never gets you where you want to go, it merely gets you away from where you were. Moving one or two of the centers now does nothing to improve the team if we merely “take what we can get” in the exchange.
The word is out now. The Detroit Pistons are in the mix for a 76er center. The San Antonia Spurs are contemplating the need for an NBA center as well. The In fact, there are many NBA teams in the market for upgrading their center position.
Josh Wilson highlighted potential landing spots for Jahlil Okafor, arriving at eight additional NBA teams. But in the end, it’s about improving the Sixers. The same scenario can be made in the context of moving Nerlens Noel, but the ultimate decision to pull the trigger is dependent upon improving this team.
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It’s off-season, and it’s the season to propose, contemplate and assess potential moves to come from the Philadelphia 76ers and we will do our best to lay each potential move out for you. But what we will not do is set the value of the trading pieces for you. Each of us must sit back, consider the potential value of what we surrender for the potential value of what we receive, and decide if you accept or reject that scenario. What we are giving up is an NBA starter with an upside to achieve All-Star status. That should be the minimum of what we accept in return.
If not, we haven’t improved this team at all.