Philadelphia 76ers: What to expect statistically in 2017-18- minutes and scoring
The Philadelphia 76ers have added four key players to a 28-win team. What should we expect from the team statistically next year?
Given my rough statistical analysis, I think the Philadelphia 76ers will vastly improve upon their 25th ranked scoring. They will likely again suffer from high turnovers and be near the bottom of the league again. When it comes to assists I would expect them to slip a little and be a middle of the pack team.
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On the defensive end, the Philadelphia 76ers should be among the league leaders in rebounding, steals and blocks. High turnovers will lead to easy points in transition for the other team so overall scoring defense may struggle to be top 10.
Overall, the Achilles heal this year will be turnovers. The more the team can grab rebounds and run in transition the less likely they are to get caught in half court situations and turn the ball over.
So where am I getting this? Well, let’s dive into the numbers:
Rotation and Minutes
| Starter | Minutes | Backup | Minutes | Third String | Mins | 4th string | mins | Total mins | |
| Guard 1 | Markelle Fultz | 25 | Jerryd Bayless | 15.00 | McConnell | 8.00 | 48 | ||
| Guard 2 | JJ Redick | 28 | Jerryd Bayless | 8.00 | Stauskas | 6.00 | TLC | 6.00 | 48 |
| Wing | Robert Covington | 32 | Justin Anderson | 10.00 | Luwawu | 6.00 | 48 | ||
| Four | Ben Simmons | 28 | Dario Saric | 16.00 | Amir Johnson | 4.00 | 48 | ||
| Center | Joel Embiid | 28 | Richaun Holmes | 15.00 | Amir Johnson | 5.00 | 48 |
The first thing that jumped out at me is that some players who were core rotation peices are likely to see their minutes decline significantly. You may note that I have left Jahlil Okafor out of this completely. This is a 13-man rotation and I just cannot see how he can fit on a team with Richaun Holmes and Amir johnson as backups. My guess is Okafor will be moved. Holmes is also a possible trade peice since he is likely to have more value around the league due to his rim protection and salary.
Nik Stauskas and T.J. McConnell will struggle to find minutes when the entire team is healthy. You may argue that Luwawu will get more minutes than Justin Anderson and you would probably be correct, but given the general lack of small forwards, I think Anderson will see more time for defensive purposes. TLC will likely split his minutes among both wing positions.
Related Story: Breaking down the Sixers' wing depth
Estimated Statistics
So here is the basic premise of my analysis. Take each player and calculate thier expected statistics based on the per36 stats available divided by 36 and times the number of minutes expected this season.
So lets start with scoring:
| Player | Avg Mins | Points/36 | EST PPG | |
| 1 | Markelle Fultz | 25 | 23.4 | 16.25 |
| 2 | JJ Redick | 28 | 19.2 | 14.93 |
| 3 | Robert Covington | 32 | 14.7 | 13.07 |
| 4 | Ben Simmons | 28 | 20 | 15.56 |
| 5 | Joel Embiid | 28 | 28.7 | 22.32 |
| 6 | Jerryd Bayless | 23 | 12.9 | 8.24 |
| 7 | Justin Anderson | 10 | 14.1 | 3.92 |
| 8 | Dario Saric | 16 | 17.6 | 7.82 |
| 9 | Richaun Holmes | 15 | 16.9 | 7.04 |
| 10 | TJ McConnell | 8 | 9.4 | 2.09 |
| 11 | Nik Stauskas | 6 | 12.4 | 2.07 |
| 12 | Timothe Luwawu-Cabbarot | 12 | 13.5 | 4.50 |
| 13 | Amir Johnson | 9 | 11.6 | 2.90 |
| 120.71 |
Do I think the Philadelphia 76ers will score 120 points per game? Absolutely not. But this model would have looked completely differently a year ago before we knew what we had in Joel Embiid. I actually think that Embiid will score slightly less this coming season as his usage % decreases. Last season he was asked to carry a heavy burden simply due to lack of other options on offense. But if you look at these stats on an individual level, aside from Embiid and possibly Ben Simmons you have to think these are relatively realistic. The Philadelphia 76ers scored 102.4 points per game last season which ranked 25th in the league. The Golden State Warriors lead the league in scoring at more than 115 points per night.
Conclusion – Vast Improvement
If the Sixers can improve thier scoring output by just 6 points per game to 108 that would make them a top 10 offense. I think this is a realistic expectation.
Again this is not simply wishful thinking, this is using past history of per 36 scoring against the projections of future minutes played.
All stats via Basketball Reference
Next: Post-free agency power rankings
Check back tomorrow for rebounding and other statistical projections.