The Philadelphia 76ers have added four key players to a 28 win team. What should we expect from the team statistically next year?
In 2016-17 the Philadelphia 76ers were ranked 23rd in the NBA in total rebounds. They averaged just 42.8 rebounds per game with just a 75.3 percent defensive rebounding rate as a team. On the defensive glass they were ranked 28th in the league. This number will need to increase in order for the team to improve their overall defensive rating.
Philadelphia 76ers
On the offensive glass the team was ranked 19th with an offensive rebounding percentage of 22.4.
Moving “Forward”
The Philadelphia 76ers are a big team. In a league that has gone ever smaller and smaller, the Philadelphia 76ers are one of the tallest teams in the league. Adding Ben Simmons into the starting lineup should increase the teams rebounding potential on its own. He averaged 12.5 rebounds per 36 at LSU compared to Dario and Ersan Ilyasova who averaged just 8.6.
With this move, the Philadelphia 76ers should be among the league leaders in rebounding. The more the team can grab rebounds and run in transition the less likely they are to get caught in half court situations and turn the ball over.
So where am I getting this? Well lets dive into the projected numbers. I’m going to start again with minutes so that the rotations are clearly understood because so much of what the team will do from a rebounding standpoint will be driven by who is on the floor.
Rotation and Minutes
| Starter | Minutes | Backup | Mins | Third String | Mins | 4th string | mins | Total mins | |
| Guard 1 | Markelle Fultz | 25 | Jerryd Bayless | 15.00 | McConnell | 8.00 | 48 | ||
| Guard 2 | JJ Redick | 28 | Jerryd Bayless | 8.00 | Stauskas | 6.00 | TLC | 6.00 | 48 |
| Wing | Robert Covington | 32 | Justin Anderson | 10.00 | Luwawu | 6.00 | 48 | ||
| Four | Ben Simmons | 28 | Dario Saric | 16.00 | Amir Johnson | 4.00 | 48 | ||
| Center | Joel Embiid | 28 | Richaun Holmes | 15.00 | Amir Johnson | 5.00 | 48 |
When looking at this 13-man rotation you see a fairly broad distribution of rebounds that can be expected. I have used the simplest possible metric to project this down to a counting stat. Instead of using rebound percentage I have elected to simply project the rebounds per 36 minutes for each player over the number of minutes I estimate they will get in the rotation.
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Estimated Rebounds
| Player | Avg Mins | Reb/36 | Est Reb | |
| 1 | Markelle Fultz | 25 | 5.7 | 3.96 |
| 2 | JJ Redick | 28 | 2.8 | 2.18 |
| 3 | Robert Covington | 32 | 5.8 | 5.16 |
| 4 | Ben Simmons | 28 | 12.5 | 9.72 |
| 5 | Joel Embiid | 28 | 11.1 | 8.63 |
| 6 | Jerryd Bayless | 23 | 2.9 | 1.85 |
| 7 | Justin Anderson | 10 | 6.7 | 1.86 |
| 8 | Dario Saric | 16 | 8.7 | 3.87 |
| 9 | Richaun Holmes | 15 | 9.4 | 3.92 |
| 10 | McConnell | 8 | 4.2 | 0.93 |
| 11 | Stauskas | 6 | 3.7 | 0.62 |
| 12 | Luwawu | 12 | 4.5 | 1.50 |
| 13 | Amir Johnson | 9 | 8.2 | 2.05 |
| 46.24 |
Stats via Basketball Reference
Among the starters, only J.J. Redick is not a reasonable rebounder for his position. Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid average more than 11 rebounds per 36 minutes which is fairly elite. The bench also has three bigs that average more than eight rebounds per 36 minutes played.
In addition to this you can look at the year over year progression of players such as Richaun Holmes. Holmes increased his total rebounding percentage by 40 percent between his rookie and sophomore seasons. The team has focused on his positioning and discipline. Richaun sacrificed his block percentage to stay positioned for rebounds. His block percentage dropped from 4.3 to 3.7 percent. This is a natural progression for a young player as they learn to box out and not hunt every block.
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Conclusion
Rebounding is an area where you can clearly project an anticipated improvement for this team. If they can increase thier rebounding by just 4 rebounds per game this will put them well within the top 10 in the league.